Newark By Election

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444 never mind your polls, the Labour Councillor in Newark came third.

That is reality.

[Peter Pedant]

and UKIP werent elected either

that is further reality

[ichkeria]

The "polls" however are national ones I believe. But I agree that they are not always accurate. Most recent by-election ones gave the Cons a 15% lead over UKIP, whereas in reality it was nearly 20%
:-)

[Gromit]

AOG

It was a Conservative seat with a 16,000 majority. Labour never expected to win here. Labour's share of the vote dropped, but by half the amount that the Conservative's share of the vote dropped.

The Conservatives' majority halved.

The big winners were UKiP who took votes from everyone.

[youngmafbog]

And the fact that labour had a reduction, when being the opposition just before an election you would expect an increase or at least stay the same?

No, labour were never going to win but this is not good news for Ed no matter how the left try to spin it.

Dave needs to wake up and smell the coffee too, although I must admit I thought the majority may have been slashed more than that.

For UKIP a very good result. This is primarily a conservative rural vote, so the local electorate are not really affected by the issues that UKIP is addressing. In fact they are probably using cheap foreign labour !

[mikey4444]

AOG...Labour were never going to win, as its a safe Tory seat...not sure what point you are trying but failing to make. No Poll that I have been able to find predicted that Labour WOULD win in Newark. If it pleases you, and others, I think Labour should have done better than they did, but, I repeat, they were never predicted to win.

However, there was lots of loose talk about UKIP swaggering into the House of Commons this morning. UKIP still have no MP's in Westminster. Still waiting for that earthquake.

YouGov still puts Labour ahead of the Tories, and has done, along with every other Poll, for the last few years. Here are the latest two Polls ::

http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/

There are people on here that think that every Poll is a lie. Well, if that is the case, the lying appears to be very consistent.

[Gromit]

Mikey

A year before the last General election, the Conservatives overturned a 7,000 Labour majority in the Crewe and Nantwich by Election. The swing to the Conservatives was +19%.

Yesterday, the share of the vote for Labour was -5%. they are going backwards.

[AB Editor]

"They are going backwards"

My thought on the Labour Party generally :)

[DrFilth]

Gromit you said i have my head in the sand so i will type this slowly all my mates in the past have voted labour

they are now all voting ukip

who has his head in the sand coz it ain't me mate

[naomi24]

//Yesterday, the share of the vote for Labour was -5%. they are going backwards. //

Labour has never progressed - that's its problem.

[Gromit]

Naomi,

Blairs 9% swing and 145 seat majority was not 'progress'?

[naomi24]

I mean intellectually.

[Gromit]

DrFilth

Yesterdays Newark result

The Conservatives were down 10,159 votes.
The LibDems were down 9,242 votes.
Labour were down 4,569 votes.

It is clear where UKiP are picking up the majority of their votes.

[Gromit]

Naomi,

I am not a fan of what Blair did so I hate to bang his drum, but he was light years ahead of Major intellectually. Labour are in power 13 years, so they must have been doing something right. Admittedly Hague/IDS/Howard were very poor and probably intellectually inferior to Blair as well.

[DrFilth]

gromit labour should not be down they should be up but people have no faith in ed

> Labour were down 4,569 votes. <

you can show me all the facts and figures you want but the truth is some labour voters are voting ukip and you tell me i have my head in the sand

[naomi24]

Gromit, you misunderstand. The philosophy is intellectually outdated.

[Gromit]

I agree Labour should be doing better.

In the Euro Elections and the local elections Labour increased their vote. So I find it difficult to square they are losing votes to UKiP when their votes are going up.
Yesterday was a bad result for Labour. They should not be getting less votes than they did 4 years ago. But the result is fairly meaningless to Labour as it was a seat with a huge Conservative majority that no one expected them to win. So Labour voters didn't turn out.

[Gromit]

Naomi,

You are not going to make me laugh by claiming Labour are Socialists, are you? :-)

[DrFilth]

> So Labour voters didn't turn out. <

so where i live labour always win so it is also a waste of time for any other voter to turn out

[naomi24]

Wouldn't dream of stopping you. ;o)

[DrFilth]

Gromit

Droylsden East
Sue Quinn (LAB) 1431
Ted Salmon (UKIP) 1168
Liv Brannon (CON) 250
Mark Stanley (GRN) 163
LAB HOLD

Droylsden West
Barrie Holland (LAB) 1584
Tracy Radcliffe (UKIP) 971
Gill Westhead (CON) 235
Jo Booth (GRN) 149
Ian Connor (BNP) 106
LAB HOLD