While Cameron's Away...boris Mp?

[Jomlett]

BBC News - Boris 'seeking 2015 Commons return' http://bbc.in/1ulBAPj

[mikey4444]

Gromit.....absolutely right about the Bingo...never thought of it in that way before.

Poor Cleggie...quite a nice chap but doomed to die in the first reel !

[grumpy01]

People talk about Clegg going.How will he still be leader of a rump when he won't have a seat in Parliament himself?Furthermore every time I see Danny Alexander on T.V the screen is in real danger of having something thrown at it.

[Svejk]

Anybody think Cameron and Farage will do a pre/post election deal?

[Khandro]

Svejk; //Anybody think Cameron and Farage will do a pre/post election deal?//
I wouldn't rule anything out, politicians will crawl a mile over broken glass to stay in power.

[Svejk]

it'd seem to make sense, on the face of it. No doubt being considered. (whatever they say)

[Svejk]

it'd seem to make sense, on the face of it. No doubt being considered. (whatever they say)

[Gromit]

Svejk
I can see a pre-election agreement being attractive to UKIP but not the Conservatives. Not sure UKIP have anything to offer though.

The Conservatives have 32 marginal seats, and Farage will want to stand in one of those. UKIP could maybe offer to not stand in the other 31 seats in exchane for a cabinet post for Farage. Not sure how that would go down with the UKIP candidates in those seats though.

I can see a lot of reasons why Cameron would not be interested:
- he does not want to help UKIP get a foothold in any way
- he has enough trouble with the Euro Skeptics in his own party
- he wants the Conservative Party to be more centre right than far right
- he thinks UKIP are full of the loonies he rid his party of.
- he might conclude a pact would scare more floating voters away from his party
- he probably know the party will get rid of him if he does not deliver a straight election win. Another coalition or pact will not be good enough to save his leadership.

That is not to say the idea is dead. I wouldn't rule anything out.

[237SJ]

I don`t think Cameron will do a pre-election deal with UKIP. For some strange reason, I received a letter from David Cameron`s office last week asking me to fill out a questionnaire. One of the questions was "Who would you rather have as Prime Minister David Cameron or Ed Milliband"? I think he still thinks that Labour are the only contenders. There was also a question about who I would vote for. The main parties were mentioned, plus UKIP and "other". I thought it was interesting that UKIP were considered enough of a threat to be mentioned in the short list.

[scooping]

Only a fool would write off Tory chances of winning an outright majority at the next election. Should they fail, however, Cameron goes and the contenders will be David Davis, May, Osbourne, Boris, Hammond. Davis too unpopular in the Party. May not sufficiently media friendly and also not popular in the Party. Can't see Boris leading the Opposition for five years, a dreadful task, so it will all be a bit of a mess. Of course, Cameron may have to go if Scotland votes Yes - unlikely I think.

[Gromit]

UKIP have the potential to ruin either Cameron's or Miliband's plans. They will definitely cause disruption to voting patterns unlike the LibDems have in recent elections. The only problem is that nobody can predict, not even Farage, how that will pan out.

They could:
Split the Tory vote and result in a Labour win.
Take votes from both sides equally but not win anything
Just do badly.

Along with the collapse of the LibDem votes, the disruption cased by UKIP will make the next election unlike any other, and even more difficult to predict.

[Gromit]

Scooping
If the Conservatives do not win the next election, it will be because of the economy. So I doubt Osborne will be in contention for leader.

[Svejk]

I was thinking if Ukip didn't stand in marginal Conservative seats and the Cons gave them a 'free' run at some marginal Labour seats.

[Jomlett]

Michael White's onto Boris! http://gu.com/p/4vheg/tw via @guardian

"As a journalist, Boris Johnson knows as well as anyone that August is Fleet Street's silly season, a time when spaceships are sighted over Grimsby and world wars break out in the Balkans. So it is entirely appropriate that the London mayor should choose an August Wednesday to unveil his latest promise and announce his next career move: he wants to be prime minister. At least, he does at the moment."

[Gromit]

// I was thinking if Ukip didn't stand in marginal Conservative seats and the Cons gave them a 'free' run at some marginal Labour seats. //

That wouldn't work. A UKIP gain from Labour is no use to the The Conservatives. The do not have a majority, so they need to GAIN seats themselves. What you are suggesting would just be redistributing some opposition seats.

[Svejk]

in the first place, of course a ukip, liberal or monster raving loony seat is better for the cons than a lab seat. And the 'quid pro quo' would be not to split the right wing vote in other areas. It wouldn't be simple to work out which seats to contest but I'm sure there'd be an advantage in it. Perhaps working class areas in the north who wouldn't elect a con might elect a ukip. Anyway, we shall have to see if they do and if not, where they, perhaps, should have.

[Gromit]

I don't think you are getting it svejk.

The Conservatives currently have 306 seats and the rest have 315. That is why they dot have a majority and need a partner.

Labour 258
LibDems 57
Others 29
Total 315

Assuming a pact meant Labour lost votes to the other parties

Labour 105
LibDems 105
UKIP/Others 105
Total 315

The Tories would still only have 306 seats and be in the exactly same position they are in now. They need to WIN seats. They will not do that by not standing in some.

[Slapshot]

Don't know much latin... called out teacher at school a totam iaculis and got chucked out..

I like Boris under the buffoonery there a good politician i think, he certainly knocks spots off any of the rest in terms of personality, interesting times ahead

[Svejk]

I give up!

[Jomlett]

I think the water cannon's given up!

[mikey4444]

You can take a horse to water .....