Parliament Has It's First U K I P Member

[ChillDoubt]

Douglas Carswell has won the Clacton seat following his defection from the Tories to UKIP and by some margin it would appear.

Link and full voting breakdown to follow.

[mikey4444]

Very good and fair analysis from the BBC's Nick Robinson...well worth taking the trouble to read !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29571412

Some key words ::

"At the last general election the Greens got an MP elected in Brighton with 1% of the vote nationally whereas UKIP got none with three times as many votes.

At the next election UKIP could beat the Lib Dems in the national vote share but get a fraction of the number of MPs.

Until recently the optimists in UKIP talked of them electing a handful of MPs - Farage certainly, maybe Carswell again plus one or two more. With that level of support they'd be very unlikely to hold the balance of power. Mr Farage will not get to be Minister for Europe. The self styled People's Army would not breach the walls of power "

So, simple arithmetic may win in the end it would seem.

[ChillDoubt]

So, simple arithmetic may win in the end it would seem.
---------------------
That's provided you know EXACTLY how the electorate will vote. If you do, can I have a gaze into your crystal ball please mikey? I want a look at tomorrow's race results.....

[mikey4444]

Nick Robinson is a highly respected source of knowledge as the BBC's Political
Editor, and I am only quoting what he says. He maintains that popularity is not enough to achieve power and seats at Westminster, and he is right. Coming second next year in 100 seats won't benefit Farage a bit, and he knows it. So it comes down to sums in the end.

[mikey4444]

Latest Poll from YouGov...Labour 5 points ahead and UKIP still around 15 :::

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/10/update-labour-lead-5/

[jno]

yes, the Lib Dems may be breathing a sigh of relief that their referendum on proportional representaton failed. The Tories and Labour certainly will. The last thing any of them need is a parliament reflecting the makeup of the electorate.

[Zeuhl]

Were UKIP pro Proportional Representation?

I can't recall

[Zeuhl]

LOL jno

great minds and all that...

[mikey4444]

I have yet to make my mind up about PR, mainly because there so many different versions to chose from. But MEPS, Welsh AMs and Scottish MSPs are all elected on some kind of PR. What Nick Robinson has shown is how difficult it is for new and minor parties to get elected to Westminster, despite being thought of as popular around the country.

UKIP could make a lot of flash and thunder next May, but end up with hardly any seats, and therefore unable to pursue its plans...in other words impotent.

[jno]

great tongue-twister, Zeuhl

[Zeuhl]

^ LOL

don't even think about the next line ...

[Zeuhl]

/I have yet to make my mind up about PR/

for me the UKIP case is similar (dare i say) to my party of choice The Greens

would you want them running the country? NO
would you like them to have some influence in some policies? YES

[mikey4444]

Not sure Z what your question is but how is the Green Parties sole MP influencing anything ? Carswell was in a position to influence things before he resigned his seat but what influence does he have now ?

In our system as it stands today, its Winner takes All. Parliament is full of minor, self-important parties, whose only hope of exercising some kind of power is to vote for or against whatever the Government says.

Plaid Cymru has 3 representatives in Westminster. They have some measure of power in Cardiff but begger-all in London. So what is achieved by voting for PC in General Elections ?

[agchristie]

How many more times do we have to hear the cliche of the defeated Party saying it's a 'wake up call'?

Maybe they should use alarm clocks with Big Ben's chimes.

[Zeuhl]

/Not sure Z what your question is but how is the Green Parties sole MP influencing anything ?/

mikey

i was suggesting an argument for PR

and therefore influence (not control) for parties such as UKIP and The Greens

[mikey4444]

Z...if that is correct than I misinterpreted your post. But PR has been voted on and defeated. Perhaps the next Parliament will have another go at PR. It has to be said that the present regime hardly progressed the debate when the vote came up shortly after the 2010 election. As I remember it, the referendum for PR was given as a sop to Clegg, as a way of keeping the LibDems sweet.

[BlackadderV]

Exactly, Mikey. And then they reneged on their promise to support boundary changes when it was supposed to be tit for tat. That alone makes the unfit to play any part in the democratic process IMHO.

[THECORBYLOON]

MIKEY, MSPs and AMs are not all elected using PR as the majority are elected using the first past the post method.