A Victory For Ed ?

[youngmafbog]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/heywood-and-middleton-byelection-liz-mcinnes-secures-narrow-win-as-labour-hold-seat-9786281.html

Lab 11,633
Ukip 11,016


Oh dear, not exactly a landslide victory for an opposition party a few months from an election is it?

Still, I am sure the labour stalwarts will be along to defend this brilliant victory.

Me? I reckon Ed should be worried, very worried.

[naomi24]

Ironic really. All the spiel we've had here about UKIP taking votes from the Tories - and voila! Got to laugh really.

[Quizmonster]

Another way of looking at it, of course, is that the Tories LOST a seat to UKIP yesterday and Labour DIDN'T!

[mikey4444]

QM has it right here. Ed is probably looking a bit concerned over his cornflakes this morning but its dave that is shaking in his boots. Labour never had a chance in Clacton but dave did but it all went pear-shaped for him.

So this morning Labour has the same number of seats, the Tories have lost one and UKIP have borrowed one from dave ! No real change.

[Gromit]

A very bad result for Labour, but they did just hold on, where as the Conservatives lost by a great margin in both by elections.
The Heywood result was the more surprising because UKIP were expected to win Clacton, but were not expected to come so close, up north in a solid Labour seat. Certainly a wake up call for the hapless Ed, and a lesson for Labour to not take the electorate for granted, nor count its chickens.
The 2015 General Election will be very interesting, especially as the LibDems representation in parliament is likely to evaporate to a handful of seats.

[Svejk]

The old Labour supporters seem to be in denial this morning.
Not surprising, really, as anyone who still supported them after about 1998 must live in denial.

[mikey4444]

Naomi...UKIP DID takes votes away from the Tories, and Farage stole the sitting Tory MP as well ! If UKIP had put up their own candidate in Clacton, then they still wouldn't have any seats in Westminster this morning.

[naomi24]

Mikey, Ed’s “probably looking a bit concerned”….. Squeak! :o)

Ed has more reason to be concerned than Dave! As you say, UKIP fielded an ex-Conservative who is known to the electorate and had held a comfortable majority which is probably why UKIP went flying in there. Ed, on the other hand, lost his voters in a straight fight. Oh dear.

[mikey4444]

No Oh Dear needed Naomi ! The Tories lost both seats last night. If they are so popular and wonderful, they should have at least held onto Clacton, and done better in Heywood. Clacton is classic Tory territory...home of Sun and DM readers. It also has the most deprived district in Britain, but dave lost the seat !

[jno]

Labour held a seat, the Tories lost one... so of course it's Labour who should be worried. Right!

[naomi24]

Mikey, as well as being in denial, you're contradicting yourself.

//If UKIP had put up their own candidate in Clacton, then they still wouldn't have any seats in Westminster this morning.//

[Quizmonster]

There seem to be three "old Labour supporters" on this thread so far.
I stated a plain fact, Mikey admitted that "Ed is probably looking a bit concerned"and Gromit said it was, "A very bad result for Labour." Which one of us said anything to suggest we are "in denial this morning"?

[Sqad]

\\\\So this morning Labour has the same number of seats, the Tories have lost one and UKIP have borrowed one from dave ! No real change.\\\

Very true mikey......except, based on this bye election results, we now know that UKIP can "savage" the Labour vote.

[naomi24]

^Exactly.

[mikey4444]

QM...don't worry, you didn't ! People who think that dave did well last night are in denial, not Ed. I repeat...dave lost 2 by-elections...dave won 1.

Morning Sqad.......as somebody that could be described as "long in the tooth" (!) I'm sure you know that by-elections rarely reflect General Elections...
remember Orpington in 1962 ?

[jno]

mikey, you might be interested in this (pre-voting) analysis from the Economist

Like all political outfits, UKIP is a coalition. It is a partnership of right-wing shire Tories and white, ageing working-class voters disillusioned with Labour. The instincts of these two groups differ in various areas, but they are united by a preference for authoritarian and nationalist policies. Yet a smaller “third UKIP” also exists: Thatcherite and libertarian, comprising much of the party’s youth and some of its younger parliamentary candidates. Until now, this lot have not been prominent (or, in the case of the quietly libertarian Mr Farage, frank) enough to melt the socially conservative glue holding the first and second UKIPs together. But Mr Carswell is nothing if not outspokenly small-statist. Unlike most of his new party, his instincts on immigration are liberal, he cares deeply about civil liberties and wants to disestablish the church. It is not impossible to imagine his election as UKIP’s first fully-fledged MP (and the way that he votes in parliament) hastening the confrontation between these different wings of the party.

[Farriercm]

It,s goals that count.
Labour 1---Conservatives--- 0 .
Ukip 1-----Conservatives--- 0 .

[Sqad]

Morning mikey.......yes i agree.......but for some obscure reason these bye -elections seem to have a particular feel about them......a nervousness spreading throughout UK Politics.
We have been using the above argument to explain the rise in UKIP for too long now.

just a feeling mikey............just a feeling.

[naomi24]

Mikey, no one has said that Dave did well - simply that Labour's performance - even though it scraped in by a whisker - was not one to crow about.

[ludwig]

// Another way of looking at it, of course, is that the Tories LOST a seat to UKIP yesterday and Labour DIDN'T //

Another way is that the Liberals didn't lose any seats either, so it's also a fantastic result for them.

We can all play politician and spin it in any way we like. The truth is that both results were bad for everyone but UKIP.

[mikey4444]

I am not crowing, if you read my earlier posts. But there is a growing feeling here that any loss to dave is best ignored, as it will just go away of its own choice. dave is fighting for his political life here. If he loses next May, the Tory Grandees will turf him out as quick as they can, like they did to Major, Hague, Howard and IDS. He could end up like Heath...glowering from the sidelines for years, wondering why nobody is speaking to him anymore.

Now I must go to work !