A Victory For Ed ?

[youngmafbog]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/heywood-and-middleton-byelection-liz-mcinnes-secures-narrow-win-as-labour-hold-seat-9786281.html

Lab 11,633
Ukip 11,016


Oh dear, not exactly a landslide victory for an opposition party a few months from an election is it?

Still, I am sure the labour stalwarts will be along to defend this brilliant victory.

Me? I reckon Ed should be worried, very worried.

[youngmafbog]

I was right - The stalwarts are defending the brilliant victory.

Talk about rose tinted spectacles !

[naomi24]

Mikey, the fact that Dave lost Clacton has been acknowledged, and I didn’t say you are crowing – I said Labour’s performance was not one to crow about. As for turfing people out, I don’t think Ed can afford to sit on his non-existent laurels.

[Quizmonster]

OK, Ludwig, if you don't approve of a seat-count approach, let me put it another way...both Tories and Labour LOST an election yesterday (Clacton) but Labour also WON one (Heywood).

[Gromit]

Or if we wan to phrase it in the negative...

Labour winning Heywood by 600 votes is not a result to crow about.

The Conservatives losing both election by a big margin is not election winning material.

[Hypognosis]

Don't forget that blocks of ~11,000 voters voted UKIP in both of these bye elections.

That should give many a sitting MP a fright.

Turnout was 50% and ??%. Voters should respond to this middling turnout and the fact that majorities can be squeezed if they get themselves down to the polling station, next May.

As was said, a win but not one to crow about.

[jno]

H&M turnout was about 35%, I think. But by-election turnouts are often low, especially when the general election is not far off. Why turn out to elect a small cog who's going to have no time to contribute to the machine, knowing that you'll be doing it again in a few months?

[VHG]

If we look at the 2010 result for Heywood we see why Labour should be worried (we all admit Tories should be worried)

Labour 18,499
UKIP 1,215

Labour vote gone DOWN by 7,000, UKIP vote gone UP by 10,000.

[jno]

we all admit Tories should be worried

very few seem to be admitting anything of the sort. This OP, for a start. Most Tory voters hereabouts seem to be resolutely ignoring wht it might mean for Cameron.

[ludwig]

Keep spinning QM. Here's one you might like to use...
The Labour result was crap but the Tories was worse.

What's clear is that it's going to be an interesting and unpredictable general election. UKIP will be massively important - not because of how many seats they'll win (I'm still saying it'll be hardly any), but because of how many votes they'll take from the other parties.

On the face of it the Tories have most to worry about, but with Miliband being so useless and unpopular, who knows what will happen. I doubt anyone will get an overall majority.

[Quizmonster]

As you say, Ludwig, "The Labour result was crap but the Tories' was worse."
I totally agree and consequently fail to see in what way I have 'spun' anything. It is utterly indisputable that, of the two main parties, the Tories emerged by far the worse off yesterday. A seat lost as against a seat retained is unquestionably an overall loss and any attempt to deny that can only be an example of 'spin'!

(How long are we going to keep this particular 'tease' up, I wonder? Nah, I think I'll just leave it there, as you're not making a lot of sense so far.)

[ludwig]

// it is utterly indisputable that, of the two main parties, the Tories emerged by far the worse off yesterday //

It's actually fairly disputable. There's a pretty good chance Miliband will be more depressed than Cameron this morning. Narrowly holding onto a safe seat with a massively reduced 600 vote majority isn't really what the main opposition party should be hoping for at this stage of the game.

[ChillDoubt]

Whatever happens, Ed was extremely swift in cutting short a doorstep interview with a Sky reporter this morning when he had to field some of the more pertinent questions put to him.

[youngmafbog]

// This OP, for a start. // And what does that mean?

Personally I agree that the majority of Tories voters know the UKIP threat, MPs' well I think it has been dawning the laast few months.

The Tories knew they were going to get a pasting, doesn't make it any better but they had admitted it to themselves.

The real shock result is labours 'victory' A margin of 600 votes (especially when reduced by so much) is a very close call and yet by some of the spinning on here, we won so so what? An odd stance to take.