Will Scotland Vote Snp?

[naomi24]

With the concern in the rest of the country about the SNP potentially holding sway over a Labour government, something’s puzzling me. Since the outcome of the Scottish referendum was ‘No to independence’, will the majority of electorate there, who don’t want independence, vote against the SNP in the forthcoming elections?

[jno]

Ed won't be asked to form a government

he might be. Until the results are in, we've no idea who'll be asked to form a government.

[mushroom25]

//he might be//

yes, but it's a bit of a risk isn't it? scots voters turn their backs on jim murphy in the hopes of a louder voice for scottish interests, but then need in turn to hope that Ed has enough charismatic leader presence to do well in the rest of the UK.....

oh dear.

[mikey4444]

Its a difficult question Naomi, and no mistake !

An important factor in the sudden rise in popularity of the SNP may be reflected in the distaste for the Tories north of the Border. All three main Parties were active in opposing the YES vote, but it was a Tory PM they are blaming. Revenge upon the Tory Party must be taken into consideration.

By the way, the SNP will be capable of "holding sway" over the Tories, just as easily as Labour. As it stands today, out of the 59 MPs that Scotland sends to Westminster, 58 of them are Not Tory.

The Tory Party has had many years to recover from its wipeout in 1997, but an increase of just one seat doesn't seem to show much in the way of progress to me.

[anotheoldgit]

What I have often wondered is why we have a Scottish Parliament, a Northern Ireland Assembly, and a National Assembly for Wales.

When we are all in the United Kingdom or more correctly now, the United Queendom. :0)

[Old_Geezer]

If they vote SNP in droves it might be considered short sighted of them. For sure in a hung parliament the smaller parties can have influence, but who really wants to give much to a party that specifies that, although they are in a UK government, they are really only concerned about benefit to their own region ?

Meanwhile I'm sure there is some appeal in realising the benefit of remaining part of the UK and yet still trying to grab what one can for oneself at the expense of the other regions. Hardly a united attitude.

[jim360]

Aside from the point I've made several times over that just because the referendum vote was "no" has nothing to do with SNP's chances, the polls suggest that anyway the majority of Scots will not be voting SNP anyway. The latest figure I can find suggests their total vote share will instead be somewhere in the 40%-45% range, a figure that is not all that different from the support the "yes" vote received. Unfortunately this will still translate into a huge number of seats, probably.

The only way to turn this around is to persuade non-SNP supporters to turn out in large numbers, and even that may not be enough really.

[anneasquith]

sounds as if some of you think ' The Tartan Army ' is being recalled !!

[ichkeria]

But not everyone who votes SNP necessarily supports Scottish independence . This is not a new referendum, despite the heat having been turned up ever since the last one.

[THECORBYLOON]

The majority of the electorate did not vote against independence, it was the majority who voted, a big difference.

I am sure not every SNP supporter voted in favour of independence in much the same way that a party's MP is free to vote against any of their party's policies and not every "Yes" voter will vote SNP for this General Election or for the Scots election in 2016.

[Gromit]

Sturgeon did very well in the leaders debate.

A couple of pollsters had her as the winner.

That will have allayed the fear which has been whipped up by scaremongerers that the SNP are not as bad as they are being painted.

Anyone who was worried about voting Labour because it might result in the SNP sharing power will have had that doubt erased.

[Gromit]

* That will have allayed the fear which has been whipped up by scaremongerers - and that the SNP are not as bad as they are being painted.

[Jackdaw33]

Naomi is right in saying that the majority of Scots may well vote against the SNP, but those votes will be distributed amongst other parties. Under the FPTP system the SNP will probably ride through the middle.

[lady-janine]

I thought ms sturgeon revealed herself to be greedy, selfish and thoroughly self-opinionated - even for a politician.

None of them really acquitted themselves well, imho.

[DTCwordfan]

I think when it comes to Le Crunch, SNP will not win as many seats as it thinks it will at the moment, maybe 22-28 - still makes them a player but not quite as much bite as 41 or 42......it's the same with UKIP as people will gravitate back to keeping them out of influence. 3 to 5 seats for them...who benefits from the SNP, Labour in Scotland, from UKIP underperformance, the Tories and they will also sweep up a fair bucket of Lib seats down here in the SW as the battleground tends to be Lib/Con southwest of Bristol, excepting the centre of Exeter and Plymouth. An interesting three way seat may well be Camborne (Libs/Cons/Labour).

[Gromit]

DTC

I cannot see any genuine LibDem voter switching to the Conservatives. The extra votes the LibDems got in 2010 were at the expense of Labour. If (as suspected) the LibDem vote dwindles, I would imagine Labour or the Greens will be the beneficiaries, not the Conservatives.

[mikey4444]

Gromit...well said...the voice of common sense !

[Ellipsis]

45% voted YES to independence and lost.

45% loses in a two horse race, but is more than enough to win most parliamentary seats where there are multiple candidates.

For example, this would be a crushing victory, with the winner taking 50% more votes than the runner-up:
Winner: 45%
Second: 30%
Third: 11%
Fourth: 9%
Others: 5%

So to answer the question:
> will the majority of electorate there, who don’t want independence, vote against the SNP in the forthcoming elections?

Quite possibly, but the SNP could still win a landslide.

[SirOracle]

What you all are forgetting is that there was considerable support for the inclusion of a third option in the referendum "Devo Max" which was ruled out by the Westminster Government.

Many in Scotland supported this third option,and despite having virtually obtained this option many,many Scots who voted "No" for independence,will now very likely be voting for the SNP in May.