Ah...shooting the messenger again, instead of debating the issue !
http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
This site uses all the Polls, so a lot more than 500 people, and it has consistently predicted that Labour will have more seats than the Tories.
In 2010, the Tories had 306 seats and Labour had 258. If the above EC prediction is correct, than the Tories will have lost 35 seats and Labour will have gained 32, and this is in a situation where the Libs will have lost 40.
Of course, the final count won't be exactly the same as EC predicts but dave is moving in the wrong direction, and has been since soon after the 2010 Election.
But, as I have said on many occasions, there is still a lot to play for and 4 weeks to go. But if dave is going to turn the Tory boat around, he have left it too late.