Exit Poll

[Jomlett]

Exit poll

Con 316

Lab 239

SNP 58

UKIP 2

Libs 10

[toalisi]

Could be pretty close to the final result.

[Jomlett]

Michael Gove, the Conservative chief whip, tells the BBC that if this poll is correct, “the Conservatives have clearly won this election, and Labour has clearly lost it.”

[Zacs-Master]

And it would have to be the most inaccurate poll ever for it not to be correct. Poor Mikey.

[Prudie]

Yes I'm actually quite looking forward to waking up and switching the radio on tmrw morning

[Jomlett]

looks like the pollsters are going to have to go back to the drawing board, one way or another.

[Ellipsis]

Won in the sense they got a lot more seats than anybody else, but not won in the sense they got a majority ...

[Jomlett]

In 2010 the exit poll was spot on...

[Zacs-Master]

Won in the sense that they won more seats than they had before. And labour have lost seats.

[Cloverjo]

I was optimistic at the beginning of the day. Feeling rather gutted, now. I hope it's wrong.

[Jomlett]

Paddy Pantsdown says he'll eat his hat if the exit poll is right!

[Ellipsis]

Yes, if the exit poll is correct then all the things that Labour and LibDems said about the Tories in Scotland now applies to them too ...

[jim360]

Lib Dems 10? Wow. If that bears out... just... wow.

That exit poll amazes me. I mean, I have been saying that all results were possible, including a late swing to the Conservatives, but I wasn't necessarily expecting it to happen at that level. I thought they might hit 300 at most, with a bit of luck.

We'll see how true it is. If SNP also win every seat in Scotland, the next few years could well be a constitutional mess.

[Zacs-Master]

I hope Dave calls a referendum to see whether the English want Scotland to remain part of the Union. I know which way I'd vote.

[Jomlett]

The @YouGov exit poll:

CON 284
LAB 263
LD 31
SNP 48
UKIP 2
PLAID 3
GREEN 1

[jim360]

Ha -- different exit polls giving markedly different results! The actual outcome remains very much up in the air then. Phew.

I had expected the Conservatives to pick up a point or so compared to polls.

[Zacs-Master]

Would this be the same YouGov who had them neck and neck?

[toalisi]

I very much doubt that the LD will get 31

[jim360]

To be fair to Yougov, statistically neck and neck allows for a swing of maybe two points from one party to the other.

[Zacs-Master]

Ah right. So not neck and neck at all then.

[jim360]

Well, what happens is that the media report a result as neck-and-neck and tend to overlook the uncertainty that comes with that. Equally, a result that gives one party a two-point lead could just as well be a dead heat.

Polls can be trusted once you understand their limitations -- but if you keep overlooking these then -- well, 1992 happens, for example.