Can Ukip Take This Seat?

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34946969
Labour seem nervous.

[mikey4444]

Large Labour majority and a popular, now deceased previous MP, in place for 45 years. In May, UKIP only managed to get 20.6% of the vote.

Bit of a stretch for UKIP TTT, but still possible I suppose.

[ToraToraTora]

They seem to be saying that the loyalty is to Meacher not Labour, so Labour seem nervous in the locale.

[ToraToraTora]

they are also worried about the cartoon front bench it seems.

[mikey4444]

45 years seems a very long time for the electorate not be be loyal to the Party they have voted for.

Another factor will be how the Tory vote stands up. In May, they and UKIP were pretty much neck and neck. This constituency isn't a wealthy one and I wonder if the Tory vote will hold up ?

[ToraToraTora]

Tories are 100-1, ukip 2-1. Tory vote is irrelevant here, It's UKIP v Labour

[Svejk]

This is what we're up against;
///Student nurse Amina Rafique, 21, admitted she hadn’t even heard of Corbyn but that she would vote Labour///

https://twitter.com/TheMichaelMoran/status/670938193756332033?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[Svejk]

And the 'well organised' ethnic postal vote(for Labour)

[mikey4444]

TTT...what are the bookies saying about Labour then ?

[ToraToraTora]

Labour are 4-11, favourites of course, it's a safe seat but the Tories will probably vote tactically for UKIP, Limp Dums/Greens are 200-1 (william Hill). You may pick up some tactical votes yourself of course from the LDs

[mikey4444]

My fear is just that...the Tories will never win in this seat, so their best chance of stopping Labour is to tactically vote for UKIP. This is one of the reasons that UKIP got so many votes in May but failed to get many seats.

I think its too close to call.

[sunny-dave]

Meacher was an excellent MP and a thoroughly decent chap.

[ I should declare an interest as I met him a few times - he was at the same school as me (albeit a few years earlier) - and before anyone has a quick google and mutters 'toffs', we were both scholarship boys from relatively humble backgrounds ]

He was an extremely popular and assiduous constituency MP and I do wonder how much of his huge majority was personal rather than 'party'.

At least Labour have selected a local candidate, rather than parachuted in a Westminster policy-wonk, but I still worry about the outcome.

Corbyn is (from personal/anecdotal experience) more popular with real people than either the Daily Mail or its more hysterical camp followers will admit, but the electorate is often a strange beast at by-election time.

[Gromit]

I think it will be close. A couple of thousand separating 1st and 2nd.

It will be a test for all the parties.
Labour should win it, but the parliamentary party are in disarray.

UKIP could win it on the form of previous by-elections particularly the neighbouring Rochdale constituency which they nearly won. However, a poor election result in terms of seats might put voters off.

Can the LibDems save their deposit, or are they finished?

The Tories will not expect to do well, but will Their votes transfer to UKIP?

[Khandro]

//The Tories will not expect to do well, but will Their votes transfer to UKIP?//

Nigel has asked them to 'lend' their vote to UKIP, I hope they do.

[naomi24]

Sadly, I don't think so. Dyed in the wool Labourites would vote for a donkey as long as it was wearing a red rosette.

[sunny-dave]

Whereas all Tory voters have made an altruistic decision based entirely on months of careful research?

Please don't be so superior and patronising Naomi - there are Donkey Voters of all shades of blue/red/yellow/purple.

[mikey4444]

I was going to say the same Sunny-Dave ! As far as some people are concerned, the Tories can do no wrong and Labour can do no right. It would never occur to them that a different donkey might compete, but with a blue rosette.

The fly in the ointment may be the Tories. If enough of them vote UKIP, Labour could be defeated. But my gut reaction is that Meachers support will hold the day, albeit with a smaller majority. But still too close to really tell for sure.

[jourdain2]

Does anyone know what the weather forecast is? It seems to me that it may very well be relevant.

[mikey4444]

Its November jourdain2...have a guess !

[ToraToraTora]

yes there is a purple storm coming!

[mikey4444]

TTT......God help us ! But even if Farage does win, he will still be back to where he was the day before the General Election.