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Domino Effect?
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If the UK do leave the EU, will that start an avalanche of others leaving when they realise their dues are going to go through the roof?
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That may not actually be true (although I'm sure we'd at least pay less) -- after all, other non-EU countries still pay some amount to the EU. Mainly Norway. Depends on whether or not we also left the European Economic Area -- which, since that's the one most closely related to trade, I doubt we will be leaving.
"I think the notion of the EU as the only trade game in town is a myth, and when one breaks ranks, I think others will follow."
But most of the other countries in the EU are not in it just for the trade. This is where the huge misapprehension occurs about the view of the EU. Rightly of wrongly, countries on the mainland of the EU see belonging to that organisation as a guarantee of their security. If Britain leaves, many of them will just shrug their shoulders and say "well, their hearts were never really in it anyway. Good riddance"
But most of the other countries in the EU are not in it just for the trade. This is where the huge misapprehension occurs about the view of the EU. Rightly of wrongly, countries on the mainland of the EU see belonging to that organisation as a guarantee of their security. If Britain leaves, many of them will just shrug their shoulders and say "well, their hearts were never really in it anyway. Good riddance"
UK may leave, but if we do I am certain Scotland and probably Wales will hold referendums to leave the UK and re join the EU in their own name. Thus, as I have said before, leaving us for the first time in history with no Channel as a natural barrier, we will have land borders with two EU nations (three if N I does the same !) So the UK leaving the EU will increase the numbers of EU nations not reduce it. Plus it will make our migration problem far worse as anyone will just be able to walk into England from Scotland or Wales. Don't say we will put up border posts that is ludicrous you would need a wall 100s of miles long. Look at the N I border no controls you just walk or drive over. Do not say Scotland and Wales can not afford to join the EU. The truth is they cannot afford not to join as they will get so much development aid,as places like Greece do !
And of course NI need only stay within the UK for the issue of an EU land border to arise (otherwise actually there's just be the island of Ireland within the EU: I can't actually see that happening) So, you would actually have farmhouses with their parlours in the EU and their kitchens outside the EU, knowing what our border is like ;-)
The "land border" we currently have is, presumably, the Channel Tunnel and (at least in theory) shouldn't be so hard to monitor (the practice is, perhaps, different). On the other hand, a split UK would introduce a land border measured in hundreds of miles, rather than a handful of metres.
All these issues are up in the air, of course, and there's no reason to assume a worst-case scenario, but it's still worth bearing in mind that our potential split from teh EU is never going to be so neat as people would like.
All these issues are up in the air, of course, and there's no reason to assume a worst-case scenario, but it's still worth bearing in mind that our potential split from teh EU is never going to be so neat as people would like.
If they want security they should get it from being in NATO. The thing is that the net contributors will like the illusion of being in control and so may suck it up. The net receivers aren't going to kill their golden goose. It'd be interesting to see if any others would have the guts to make the break. Perhaps they'd wait and see how we got on first.
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