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Polling In The Referendum
23 Answers
Not a point about the politics of being In or Out but the polls.
Why is it in all the recent polls that the telephone surveys show a strong IN preference and lead over the Brexiters, some variance on the Don't Knows....and then all the online votes show it being fairly even-stevens and a few with the OUTs marginally ahead, again with a fairly good spread of DKs but thinner.....?????
We need some statistical analysis, my suspicion being that the telephones are more random in selection..... Question for Mikey if he is around?
Why is it in all the recent polls that the telephone surveys show a strong IN preference and lead over the Brexiters, some variance on the Don't Knows....and then all the online votes show it being fairly even-stevens and a few with the OUTs marginally ahead, again with a fairly good spread of DKs but thinner.....?????
We need some statistical analysis, my suspicion being that the telephones are more random in selection..... Question for Mikey if he is around?
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Anyone can vote in an online poll,like the one we had on AB.
Telephone polls pick a random selection of people, supposedly selected to cover the full range of age, ethnicity, income , location and other factors. I would say telephone polls are more accurate. Only those with a strong view either way would bother to vote in an on line poll as you have to make the effort to sign in and register your choice. With telephone polls you do not know before hand that you are going to be asked for an opinion, so you just say what you feel at the time.
There may be on line polls that are selected at random but as there are still a huge number of people (possibly the majority the over 60's?) who do not use computers and have no internet access, I do not see how an on line poll can be as random as a telephone poll.
Telephone polls pick a random selection of people, supposedly selected to cover the full range of age, ethnicity, income , location and other factors. I would say telephone polls are more accurate. Only those with a strong view either way would bother to vote in an on line poll as you have to make the effort to sign in and register your choice. With telephone polls you do not know before hand that you are going to be asked for an opinion, so you just say what you feel at the time.
There may be on line polls that are selected at random but as there are still a huge number of people (possibly the majority the over 60's?) who do not use computers and have no internet access, I do not see how an on line poll can be as random as a telephone poll.
DTC...I have little experience of telephone Polls, but I do know that they are conducted with the same rigour as face-to-face Polls....ie, that as wide a spread of different social groups, ages and locations is used.
This is to ensure that the info gathered is representative of the country as a whole. They are not perfect but then again no Polls are, including the ones where we actually go into a booth and vote. For instance, even in General Elections, the turn out rarely goes above 75%, which means that 25% of the population has not expressed and opinion one way or the other.
The turn out would have to be very close to 100% before it really reflected the "will of the people"
Its further complicated by the other-than "first past the post" method of voting, which will be used here in Wales next week.
Even when all, or most of the Polls agree with each other, they still don't get it 100% right...there is a margin of error after all.
My best guess, and its only a guess, is that the forthcoming Referendum will be close, one way or the other, with a huge variation when it comes to location, occupation and age of the voter.
Not sure if the above helps DTC !
This is to ensure that the info gathered is representative of the country as a whole. They are not perfect but then again no Polls are, including the ones where we actually go into a booth and vote. For instance, even in General Elections, the turn out rarely goes above 75%, which means that 25% of the population has not expressed and opinion one way or the other.
The turn out would have to be very close to 100% before it really reflected the "will of the people"
Its further complicated by the other-than "first past the post" method of voting, which will be used here in Wales next week.
Even when all, or most of the Polls agree with each other, they still don't get it 100% right...there is a margin of error after all.
My best guess, and its only a guess, is that the forthcoming Referendum will be close, one way or the other, with a huge variation when it comes to location, occupation and age of the voter.
Not sure if the above helps DTC !
^^ That's another problem I had not thought of. No directory's for mobile numbers.
With people increasingly being 'mobile only' telephone polls will be increasingly difficult to conduct reliably.
It must be biased already with the 'no mobile no internet' people being predominantly the poor and elderly.
With people increasingly being 'mobile only' telephone polls will be increasingly difficult to conduct reliably.
It must be biased already with the 'no mobile no internet' people being predominantly the poor and elderly.
Jackdaw33
Phone book?
I haven't seen one of those for about a decade.
It's a fair point about telephone polls. On the upside, they don't rely on self-selection, as online polls do - but on the other hand, unless polls are carried out during the evening and weekends, as well as during the week, then the results will be skewed to those people who are at home during the day.
Phone book?
I haven't seen one of those for about a decade.
It's a fair point about telephone polls. On the upside, they don't rely on self-selection, as online polls do - but on the other hand, unless polls are carried out during the evening and weekends, as well as during the week, then the results will be skewed to those people who are at home during the day.
I think that's a little misrepresentative of online polls, Gromit. The LBC thing was not a poll, it was a question posted on the site with no control, no entry conditions and no care taken over the sample.
Perhaps that's what provokes the question, actually. The AB Poll is similar (if at least restricted to one person, one vote), in that there's no control over who participates other than having to be an AB member and having to notice the question. The more official online polling companies would operate in a manner similar to telephone polls, albeit with possibly a reduced population, by asking a small sample of the people on the site individually to take part.
Maybe then DTC is comparing LBC and AB polls with phone polls, but the latter are controlled and the former are not.
Perhaps that's what provokes the question, actually. The AB Poll is similar (if at least restricted to one person, one vote), in that there's no control over who participates other than having to be an AB member and having to notice the question. The more official online polling companies would operate in a manner similar to telephone polls, albeit with possibly a reduced population, by asking a small sample of the people on the site individually to take part.
Maybe then DTC is comparing LBC and AB polls with phone polls, but the latter are controlled and the former are not.
Jack..a lot of people are not in the telephone directory these days, and if you haven't got a home phone, you can't have your Mobile listed anywhere.
However, the directory is the only source available for Pollsters can use for telephone Polls.
Jim has it right about LBC...it was only a "straw" Poll and wasn't meant to be taken very seriously at all........just like our Poll on here, that Ed provided for us !
However, the directory is the only source available for Pollsters can use for telephone Polls.
Jim has it right about LBC...it was only a "straw" Poll and wasn't meant to be taken very seriously at all........just like our Poll on here, that Ed provided for us !
AB polls to me are not polls - they are more biased than a warped snooker cue. That's the point, online polls (which put the result far closer than the phone ones) are by their very nature biased by the population that uses the site, telephone ones are likely to be more random but I accept the point that ex-d numbers are going to skew the results......
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