Ab Poll V The Real Thing?

[EDDIE51]

I can't seem to find the AB election poll , I know it had to be removed , but I assumed it would be back.
I am interested in seeing how the %'s in the AB poll compared to the actual result?
What would the result be if the AB % vote was 'real'?

[EDDIE51]

Found it
http://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1555897.html
can someone translate these %s into seats for each party please?

[jim360]

At the start of the election we also had a poll, and I tried to do the same analysis then in anticipation.

The rough answer is that the Tories were on course, according to AB, for maybe as many as 450 seats in total, and Labour were heading for oblivion.

So I think that's the end of AB polls as any kind of predictor. It's actually a bit of a surprise -- I did some digging and AB had usually been not totally dreadful, or at least consistent in its error. Clearly the demographics have shifted markedly, so that very few non-Tory/UKIP voters really hang around here.

In a nutshell, AB got it very, very, very wrong.

[naomi24]

Jim, //In a nutshell, AB got it very, very, very wrong. //

Not very, very, very wrong. As far as I recall the majority of the votes here went to the Conservatives .... and they won. Not bad really.

[Tilly2]

Answerbank participants definitely swing to the right. That's always been blindingly obvious.

[jim360]

Ab prediction: Thumping conservative landslide.

Actual result: Hung parliament.

How is that anything other than "very, very, very wrong"?

[Kromovaracun]

"How is that anything other than "very, very, very wrong"?"

By the magic of spin.

[naomi24]

No spin. The poll suggested the Conservatives would win, and they did.

[Kromovaracun]

What is the necessary number of seats to have a majority in parliament?

How many seats do the conservatives have?

[jim360]

It predicted a thumping majority for the Tories, and a crushing defeat for Labour.

Did Labour get crushed? Did the Tories destroy all before them?

And are you ever going to bother learning how to understand statistics?

[EDDIE51]

Done the maths
Conservative 370
Labour 110
Lib Dem 65
Ukip 39
If 'do not intend to vote' was a party they would have got 65 seats out of 650!
So increase each party by 10%
Conservative 407
Labour 121
Lib Dem 72
UKIP 43
Not even close is it ?

[Tilly2]

I was surprised, in the AB poll, by the numbers of people who were not going to bother to vote.

[naomi24]

//And are you ever going to bother learning how to understand statistics? //

I understand enough, thanks Jim. As the poll suggested Corbyn will not be forming a government. That suits me.

[Kromovaracun]

And so we conclude that AB - a random internet site - may not be all that representative of the country.

Colour me surprised :P.

[naomi24]

.. but nevertheless came up with the winner. ;o)

[EDDIE51]

Proof (as if it were needed! ) that AB is very biased towards the Tories and UKIP

[Tilly2]

I wonder why that is, Eddie? Seriously, I do wonder. Any explanation, please, anyone?

[jim360]

Before this election AB was still wrong, but very systematically so. Seemed that you could make a fairly accurate prediction of the actual result by correcting for the systematic error in consistent ways, eg in 2015 and 2010 I think AB got the Tory vote wrong by the same amount, Lib dems about right both times, and Labour wrong by the same amount both times.

Similarly "wrong", but predictably so, about the EU referendum. So yeah it's always been wrong but wrong in a consistent way. Until last night, when AB's Tory voters decided to stick with May even despite all her blunders (this last not a supposition, but straight from the horse's mouths, as it were), unlike what was seen in the rest of the country.

So yes. AB's poll was wrong. Predicting that the Tories would come in front of a Labour party that, until two weeks ago, was in an absolute shambles, takes no skill at all. I could have polled myself and told you that. What matters isn't the lead the Tories had, but the scale of it. A prediction isn't "Tory lead" but "Tory lead by so many seats". And AB was out by easily a hundred, probably more.

[naomi24]

Never mind Jim. You'll get over it - or perhaps you won't. ;o)

[jim360]

Well, you keep telling yourself that AB is right about everything, if that brings you comfort :)

[naomi24]

Jim, it's not a comfort thing. Just saying what happened. ;o)