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There Is No Way That This Is Achievable
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A ban on sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2032? It is absolutely ludicrous and no doubt the UK government will want to take the lead to show how green we are. The environmentalists wont be happy until they have destroyed the UK economy. Donald Trump was correct when he said the majority of them had a political agenda, most of them are anti capitalist fanatics and are using climate change issues for their own ends.
A ban on sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2032? It is absolutely ludicrous and no doubt the UK government will want to take the lead to show how green we are. The environmentalists wont be happy until they have destroyed the UK economy. Donald Trump was correct when he said the majority of them had a political agenda, most of them are anti capitalist fanatics and are using climate change issues for their own ends.
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If anything, moving away from fossil fuels would benefit the UK economy, by reducing reliance on overseas imports of oil while investing in home-developed renewable technologies. This is why China has become one of the world leaders in renewable tech -- not because they care for the environment, particularly, but because it makes sound economic sense.
Apart from that, your analysis is spot-on...
Apart from that, your analysis is spot-on...
interesting. failing grayling, by halting most rail electrification schemes and forcing the industry down the hybrid route, has committed the rail industry to diesel engined trains for at least the next 30-40 years, and killed any hope of more electrification in that time.
oh and no mention of HGVs which I assume can carry on belching NO2 and particulates?
oh and no mention of HGVs which I assume can carry on belching NO2 and particulates?
Is it possible?
Maybe, but will need investments in infrastructure.
Next week I'm in Dresden addressing a bunch of car makers and component suppliers about the changes needed to make it happen, and the implications.
I was with Audi a couple of weeks ago. They aim to have 30% of their cars electric by 2025.
The new emissions regulations (World Light Vehicle Test Protocol) WLTP are driving the industry that way.
All that is so much guff, however.
The real point is that at some point in the future, the price of electric vehicles will have fallen; the charging infrastructure will be in place; the vehicle range will be extended; the tax regime modified and societal attitudes will have changed to the point where buying a fossil-fuel-powered vehicle will simply not make sense from a financial position, an ethical position, or a performance and comfort perspective.
That's what happens in developing countries as GDP per head reaches around USD10,000. People simply switch away from two-wheelers to 4-wheeled vehicles.
That is what will happen in the auto world. Currently electric vehicles make up about 6% of new car sales. At some point, that will switch.
The only question is when this will happen; not 'if'.
It's what happened with the switch from vinyl to CD and from CD to streaming. It just became easier and cheaper.
My bet is that the switch will take place at some time in the 2025-2030 period.
As for ruining the UK economy, no. If electrification is the future – and everyone involved in the transportation sector knows it is – then driving development and innovation in that area will benefit the economy, not harm it.
The 2040 date was behind most other developed (and developing) economies. That would mean the UK would end up importing the technologies that others have developed.
With a more ambitious date, we stand a chance of developing those technologies first.
If one wants to drive change in society, the only way is through legislation. People (on the whole) don't like change, and prefer to stick with the old way of doing things, because it is easier and safer.
Legislation with strong enforcement forces things to change.
Maybe, but will need investments in infrastructure.
Next week I'm in Dresden addressing a bunch of car makers and component suppliers about the changes needed to make it happen, and the implications.
I was with Audi a couple of weeks ago. They aim to have 30% of their cars electric by 2025.
The new emissions regulations (World Light Vehicle Test Protocol) WLTP are driving the industry that way.
All that is so much guff, however.
The real point is that at some point in the future, the price of electric vehicles will have fallen; the charging infrastructure will be in place; the vehicle range will be extended; the tax regime modified and societal attitudes will have changed to the point where buying a fossil-fuel-powered vehicle will simply not make sense from a financial position, an ethical position, or a performance and comfort perspective.
That's what happens in developing countries as GDP per head reaches around USD10,000. People simply switch away from two-wheelers to 4-wheeled vehicles.
That is what will happen in the auto world. Currently electric vehicles make up about 6% of new car sales. At some point, that will switch.
The only question is when this will happen; not 'if'.
It's what happened with the switch from vinyl to CD and from CD to streaming. It just became easier and cheaper.
My bet is that the switch will take place at some time in the 2025-2030 period.
As for ruining the UK economy, no. If electrification is the future – and everyone involved in the transportation sector knows it is – then driving development and innovation in that area will benefit the economy, not harm it.
The 2040 date was behind most other developed (and developing) economies. That would mean the UK would end up importing the technologies that others have developed.
With a more ambitious date, we stand a chance of developing those technologies first.
If one wants to drive change in society, the only way is through legislation. People (on the whole) don't like change, and prefer to stick with the old way of doing things, because it is easier and safer.
Legislation with strong enforcement forces things to change.
//we're changing it.//
Depends entirely on which scientists you believe.
Being asthmatic I would love to see the end to fossil fuels plus it has the added advantage of putting the Arabs back in their tents. But it just is not going to happen in the short term. Batteries are simply not good enough(an they are far from 'green'), it needs a totally new method of storage to be invented which isnt likely to happen in the immediate future.
Depends entirely on which scientists you believe.
Being asthmatic I would love to see the end to fossil fuels plus it has the added advantage of putting the Arabs back in their tents. But it just is not going to happen in the short term. Batteries are simply not good enough(an they are far from 'green'), it needs a totally new method of storage to be invented which isnt likely to happen in the immediate future.
good, well-informed post, IJKLM.
Electric cars look like the future (though perfectly possible that some even more attractive alternative will appear before it happens). British industry won't be helped by clinging to dinosaurs: you need to be ahead of the play, not still manufacturing buggy whips..
Electric cars look like the future (though perfectly possible that some even more attractive alternative will appear before it happens). British industry won't be helped by clinging to dinosaurs: you need to be ahead of the play, not still manufacturing buggy whips..
As I said, the tax regime wil be changed. There are experiments with changing the purchase taxes on vehicles and the annual taxation rate based on emissions.
That wil extend as governments seek to drive electric vehicle ownership.
As to hydrogen power, that really is electrification. The hydrogen stores energy, just like a battery. In the case of hydrogen, the energy is chemical and derives from a fuel cell that converts the hydrogen to water and at the same time generates the electricity to power the motors.
Absolutely, there are technological and financial challenges. That's why we'll be waiting a decade for the change to make any sense.
But the effort (and financial resources) being put into these things is huge.
Why? because we can't go on burning fossil fuel to drive our transportation systems indefintely.
That wil extend as governments seek to drive electric vehicle ownership.
As to hydrogen power, that really is electrification. The hydrogen stores energy, just like a battery. In the case of hydrogen, the energy is chemical and derives from a fuel cell that converts the hydrogen to water and at the same time generates the electricity to power the motors.
Absolutely, there are technological and financial challenges. That's why we'll be waiting a decade for the change to make any sense.
But the effort (and financial resources) being put into these things is huge.
Why? because we can't go on burning fossil fuel to drive our transportation systems indefintely.
//As I said, the tax regime wil be changed. There are experiments with changing the purchase taxes on vehicles and the annual taxation rate based on emissions.//
And I I said, but you ignored, the Government did this but now has sneaked a £300 tax on them by taxing cars over £40K and since any half decent electric care is over that they get their money.
If you really think Governments will give away the fuel tax revenue then you are very much mistaken.
And I I said, but you ignored, the Government did this but now has sneaked a £300 tax on them by taxing cars over £40K and since any half decent electric care is over that they get their money.
If you really think Governments will give away the fuel tax revenue then you are very much mistaken.
YoungMaf
I didn't ignore it. I spoke about the future not the past.
The current UK government is strongly anti-renewables. They have removed subsidies for domestic renewables, and as you note, for these vehicles.
I expect that there will be changes to the tax regime, perhaps under different governments in the future.
I didn't ignore it. I spoke about the future not the past.
The current UK government is strongly anti-renewables. They have removed subsidies for domestic renewables, and as you note, for these vehicles.
I expect that there will be changes to the tax regime, perhaps under different governments in the future.
//If electrification is the future – and everyone involved in the transportation sector knows it is..//
except on the railways, it seems. this is the future, according to failing grayling:-
https:/
except on the railways, it seems. this is the future, according to failing grayling:-
https:/
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