News1 min ago
Finally, Will She Be Gone..?
It looks like they've finally had enough of her mishandling of the Brexit negotiations.
https:/
https:/
hopefully the sooner the better
https:/
https:/
hopefully the sooner the better
Answers
To answer the OP - I think May will survive the week (and even the winter) as Tory MPs take a deep breath and jib at the 'Turkeys Voting for Christmas' scenario of triggering a General Election - no viable alternative exists that could command a majority in the Party, let alone the House. To answer the "Why does Europe have the whip hand?" comments, it has always...
13:08 Sun 21st Oct 2018
To answer the OP - I think May will survive the week (and even the winter) as Tory MPs take a deep breath and jib at the 'Turkeys Voting for Christmas' scenario of triggering a General Election - no viable alternative exists that could command a majority in the Party, let alone the House.
To answer the "Why does Europe have the whip hand?" comments, it has always seemed to me that Britain made a huge tactical error by sending a senior, elected, minister to negotiate with a ghastly squit (sorry 'bureaucrat') who could just keep waving his checklist and insisting that he had no authority to move beyond it.
We initially had a strong position and should have kept our elected Government back in London and sent a heavily mandated 'Sir Humphrey' with our own checklist.
When it (very rapidly) became apparent that the talks were inherently stalled, we should have insisted on *both* sides providing Organ Grinders rather than Monkeys and then the talks could have got started for real.
Instead we've frittered away both time and our negotiating strength through incompetence (David Davis being the prime culprit) and infighting within Government - to a point where any deal will now be hugely worse than one we could have struck a year ago.
To answer the "Why does Europe have the whip hand?" comments, it has always seemed to me that Britain made a huge tactical error by sending a senior, elected, minister to negotiate with a ghastly squit (sorry 'bureaucrat') who could just keep waving his checklist and insisting that he had no authority to move beyond it.
We initially had a strong position and should have kept our elected Government back in London and sent a heavily mandated 'Sir Humphrey' with our own checklist.
When it (very rapidly) became apparent that the talks were inherently stalled, we should have insisted on *both* sides providing Organ Grinders rather than Monkeys and then the talks could have got started for real.
Instead we've frittered away both time and our negotiating strength through incompetence (David Davis being the prime culprit) and infighting within Government - to a point where any deal will now be hugely worse than one we could have struck a year ago.
sd, Britain's "tactical error" was in holding the referendum at all. Not because of the answer it produced, but because it laid Britain's cards on the table right away: "We want out whatever it costs." In any card game, seeing your opponent's entire hand gives you an advantage, and the EU haven't even had to break sweat to keep that advantage. Britain's awful "negotiators" haven't helped, of course. But Britain's basically been over a barrel since the votes were counted.
jno
/// Britain's "tactical error" was in holding the referendum at all. Not because of the answer it produced, but because it laid Britain's cards on the table right away: "We want out whatever it costs." ///
Do you really think that our politicians would have chosen to come out of Europe themselves, if it hadn't been for Farage campaigning, thus forcing Cameron into granting the British people a referendum?
/// Britain's "tactical error" was in holding the referendum at all. Not because of the answer it produced, but because it laid Britain's cards on the table right away: "We want out whatever it costs." ///
Do you really think that our politicians would have chosen to come out of Europe themselves, if it hadn't been for Farage campaigning, thus forcing Cameron into granting the British people a referendum?
"But Britain's basically been over a barrel since the votes were counted."
The UK is not over a barrel. We hold the ultimate sanction of leaving without a deal which will cost the EU as much as the UK and more, in fact, as we run a £80bn trade deficit with them. The error in the "negotiations" (in inverted commas because the talks were not worthy of the title) was allowing the EU to believe that we would not leave under no deal in any circumstances. In fact that should have been our default opening gambit and it should have been maintained throughout.
The UK is not over a barrel. We hold the ultimate sanction of leaving without a deal which will cost the EU as much as the UK and more, in fact, as we run a £80bn trade deficit with them. The error in the "negotiations" (in inverted commas because the talks were not worthy of the title) was allowing the EU to believe that we would not leave under no deal in any circumstances. In fact that should have been our default opening gambit and it should have been maintained throughout.
It was said om many occasions that the EU would be loathed to let the UK, leave the club with a good deal, as it might well encourage other EU countries to breakaway in a similar manner should they choose.
I think that notion has been scotched as they watch the shambles and turmoil which is going on following the result of an ill conceived and mal -understood referendum.
I think that notion has been scotched as they watch the shambles and turmoil which is going on following the result of an ill conceived and mal -understood referendum.
NJ's analysis is, though, missing the fact that the EU stands to lose less in *relative* terms, which is rather more important as a factor.
I don't think anyone disputes that neither side gains from a "no deal" scenario, and both the UK and EU will be worse off, but it's a meaningless threat all the same to say that we will just walk away into a recession.
I don't think anyone disputes that neither side gains from a "no deal" scenario, and both the UK and EU will be worse off, but it's a meaningless threat all the same to say that we will just walk away into a recession.
"I don't think anyone disputes that neither side gains from a "no deal" scenario,..."
Of course they don't, jim. But Mrs May's earlier soundbite was "No deal is better than a bad deal". But to have that statement taken seriously the EU needed to be under no misunderstanding that the UK would walk away if necessary. And we never were, thus it became "Any deal is better than no deal".
The UK would survive a no deal exit and the long term benefits would be far greater than a fudged deal which results in "BRINO".
Of course they don't, jim. But Mrs May's earlier soundbite was "No deal is better than a bad deal". But to have that statement taken seriously the EU needed to be under no misunderstanding that the UK would walk away if necessary. And we never were, thus it became "Any deal is better than no deal".
The UK would survive a no deal exit and the long term benefits would be far greater than a fudged deal which results in "BRINO".
"
I still don't think Brexiteers "get it". May isn't doing very well at the negotiating table because no-one in the UK can do well there, not because she personally is incompetent. "
Oh we do, it is the remainers that are causing this issue, continually undermining the UK 'negotiating' stance trying to stay in the customs union that was clearly going to be a non starter for the EU - why would it?
DD was continually undermined by Trator May and the reminer civil servant Oily, finally being ambushed by the treacherous woman at chequers.
May is, and alwasy has been for herself, and no doubt her husband who is a big swinging dick in some internation company who will probaby lose out on Brexit. She needs to go now before she wrecks the country. I am honestly nearly of the opinion COB would be better for the country than her, she is beyond useless.
I still don't think Brexiteers "get it". May isn't doing very well at the negotiating table because no-one in the UK can do well there, not because she personally is incompetent. "
Oh we do, it is the remainers that are causing this issue, continually undermining the UK 'negotiating' stance trying to stay in the customs union that was clearly going to be a non starter for the EU - why would it?
DD was continually undermined by Trator May and the reminer civil servant Oily, finally being ambushed by the treacherous woman at chequers.
May is, and alwasy has been for herself, and no doubt her husband who is a big swinging dick in some internation company who will probaby lose out on Brexit. She needs to go now before she wrecks the country. I am honestly nearly of the opinion COB would be better for the country than her, she is beyond useless.
The real disaster for the country is the fact that the vote to leave the EU was on the Conservative’s watch. That has meant the process of leaving is played out by a party with a long history of being completely split on Europe. They cannot agree amongst themselves what they want, so delivering an outcome that is best for the country, is completely beyond them.
To add insult to injury, they appointed an hapless incompetent as our chief negotiator,
Between Cameron, the man who ran away, and May, the woman who constantly puts party before country, the Tories have massively balls this up.
(May will not be gone anytime soon, that is just wishful thinking).
To add insult to injury, they appointed an hapless incompetent as our chief negotiator,
Between Cameron, the man who ran away, and May, the woman who constantly puts party before country, the Tories have massively balls this up.
(May will not be gone anytime soon, that is just wishful thinking).
The only way we were ever going up have a referendum was under a Tory govt so it’s inevitable which party would be leading the negotiations. It is also inevitable that whoever led them would have been struggling to contain rival factions. I don’t want to sound like an apologist for May, but she was persuaded by her advisors to go for the ill fated election. The same advisors who also persuaded her to adopt her Brexit ‘red lines’ in 2016
The Brexiteer faction of the Tory party know full well that their chances of winning a leadership election are very slim. As it stands, they have enough people to call a VONC but not enough to actually win the subsequent contest. If they do that, then their bolt is shot and they have no other moves at their disposal except for splitting the party and letting Corbyn into Downing St.
So technically the best strategy for them is to make lots of noise and threats about ousting May in order to get concessions without ever actually doing it. I think that's all we're seeing here. How many "last chances" have there been now? They've had enough people to VONC her for months and haven't done it. I would be very surprised if they do it now.
So technically the best strategy for them is to make lots of noise and threats about ousting May in order to get concessions without ever actually doing it. I think that's all we're seeing here. How many "last chances" have there been now? They've had enough people to VONC her for months and haven't done it. I would be very surprised if they do it now.
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