“…and Theresa May was thrown in at the deep end.”
No she wasn’t. She jumped in both feet first, dismissing Andrea Leadsom from the contest in the process.
“…why? what would happen if UK/ROI/NI did nothing at all?”
I’ve asked that question directly on here and was dismissed as a nutcase, 3Ts. An MP (whose name escapes me) asked the same question in Parliament (presumably he is similarly a nutcase) and he received no reply. That was probably because that is the answer – nothing would happen. Only the EU wants to see border arrangements enforced in Ireland and they have neither the authority nor the resources to do it.
“Customs rules change constantly -- because, after all, new products are consistently being invented or put on the market -- so, in the event that the UK did nothing, then in order to maintain the frictionless border, the UK would continually have to update its Customs rules to match those of the EU exactly.”
And what if it didn’t (see above)? How do non-EU countries who have no trade agreement with the EU (e.g. that minnow amongst global traders, the USA) manage to cope with this? Do all their goods get checked by a man with a clipboard on arrival into the EU? Possibly not. The border issue has been weaponised by the EU and our pathetic negotiating team have succumbed to their ploy.
“This is, incidentally, the same thing (effectively) as in the draft Withdrawal Deal Text, but the latter has the added bonus that we don't also force massive disruption elsewhere.”
The Withdrawal deal also has another “added bonus” in that the customs arrangements cannot be ended without the EU’s agreement. I know of no other international treaty (including the EU’s own Lisbon Treaty) that cannot be ended with an appropriate period of notice from one of the participants. For that reason alone the deal should be dismissed out of hand. Mrs May’s deal sells the country down the river and smacks of a desperate Prime Minister who will capitulate to anything rather than see the country suffer some disruption. The UK is not that desperate and should not be held to ransom by foreign officials.
Latest betting on the next PM (Paddy Power):
Jeremy Corbyn 9/2
Boris Johnson 6/1
Sajid Javid
Dominic Raab 6/1
David Davis 6/1
Michael Gove 8/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg 12/1
Jeremy Hunt 12/1
So, interestingly, they see a General election as being more likely than a change of Tory leadership.