Brexit Aint Gonna Happen.

[10ClarionSt]

You heard it here first. Personally, I couldn't care less if we're in or we're out. Honest, but it seems to me that elected MP's don't want it to happen. That's my interpretation of the vote last week. They want to stay in Europe with Maggie May as the PM. And they voted for HER cos they don't want to risk being voted out of Parliament. Simples. Brexit aint gonna happen.

[dannyk13]

Oh! ok.

[Khandro]

...and it seems post-Brexit trade deals are already under way;
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1076795/brexit-news-davos-israel-deal-liam-fox-trade-deal

[dannyk13]

Dirty tricks!
Brexit news: Airbus 'was asked' to say it could quit UK
PLANEMAKER Airbus admitted yesterday that ministers were behind a dire warning it sent out about the impact of a no-deal Brexit.

[Old_Geezer]

They've had two years of "doing in sensibly", this is as sensible as negotiations with the EU gets. No point in extending the period of getting nowhere, May's deal's a bust; time to wave goodbye.

[Old_Geezer]

You have a link danny ?

If true maybe we should say that we took them seriously and they are obliged to go now ;-)

[naomi24]

danny, is that a joke?

[theshedman]

MPs were asked if they wanted a referendum to stay in or leave the EU and they voted by a very large majority to have one. After we have it the majority of them don't seem to want to abide by the result so why vote for one in the first place unless they along with our then Prime Minister and his sidekick are so arrogant that they thought there was no way they could lose.

[jim360]

I think one needs to be careful about the point danny's making. There's no doubt that the government wanted the story publicised more widely, but the story would have been true regardless of whether or not they were involved: that is, Airbus's concern/warning/threat is still real.

[-Talbot-]

This is what danny is talking about...the Express put their spin on it but nonetheless..............

[Baldric]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1077636/brexit-news-airbus-no-deal-brexit-uk

[weecalf]

Has this been denied in parliament yet .when it is denied three time then we are staying .simple ain’t it .

[Baldric]

Good to see the well informed opinion @ 19:36

[naomi24]

Jim, //I think one needs to be careful about the point danny's making. //

Is he making a point or is he reporting the truth? Having watched the horse’s mouth on Talbot’s video I’ll plump for the latter.

//Airbus's concern/warning/threat is still real.//

How do you know?

I’ll ask a question I asked earlier and which remains unanswered. If British companies are beating a hasty (albeit eleventh hour) retreat into the balmy (for balmy read barmy) climes of Europe why isn’t the EU clapping in eager anticipation of gaining all that lovely revenue and all those lovely jobs – jobs they can well do with? One could legitimately expect them to be shoving us towards the door as fast as their sticky little mits can shove us. But they’re not. Instead they are making our exit as difficult as possible. Why?

“Leave the EU and we will make your lives a misery”. – M. Juncker –

(and yes, Jim, he did say it). Not the sort of language or dictatorial mindset this country should willingly associate with or concede to. What is it, chaps? Keep your friends close but your enemies closer?
Watch that space.

[jim360]

I don't dispute that the government had a hand in Airbus publically saying this. I *do* dispute that this news is enough to ignore the warning altogether.

[jim360]

Also, perhaps the answer to your other question is a little spoiled by news that currently the Netherlands and Belgium, in particular, very much *are* trying to lure British businesses over. That's separate from the EU, which probably feels that if the UK *must* leave then better to do that as smoothly as possible, which is in the interests of both sides. A No Deal Brexit hurts the UK more than it will the EU, according to most reasonable studies, but the operative word is still "more" -- the EU doesn't escape the damage either.

[naomi24]

Jim, //Netherlands and Belgium, in particular, very much *are* trying to lure British businesses over.//

Well of course they are! It’s called having your cake and eating it!

//… the EU, which probably feels that if the UK *must* leave then better to do that as smoothly as possible//

Probably? Truth is, Jim, the EU feels the UK shouldn’t exit at all – and for selfish reasons– and it is doing everything in its power to scuttle that exit. Brexit terrifies the EU because, for them, the UK is a cash cow and nothing more. You know that and I know that – but only one of us will acknowledge it.

//A No Deal Brexit hurts the UK more than it will the EU according to most reasonable studies//

‘Reasonable’ being those studies that support Remain. It’s scaremongering pie in the sky, Jim. There’s a whole world out there and one that this country should freely be a part of. Like I said Remainers have gone so over the top with their Project Fear they’re believing their own propaganda. Man up, Jim. You're British!!! ;o)

Night night.

[jim360]

The EU budget is rather a lot bigger than the UK's contribution. Your entire argument seems based on ignoring this, and seems determined to make it look like the UK's money is the only thing keeping the EU together -- and that, without it, they would fall. Perhaps that is a slight exaggeration, but only a slight one.

There is a wide world out there, indeed. But the EU is close to us. Far too close to ignore. It's not a Remain principle to claim that, it's merely a statement of how economics and global trade works. Called the "gravity model" -- look it up, one time, since it predates Brexit by some distance, describes global trade patterns wonderfully well, and isn't a remain plot to scaremonger you.

This is not even to mention, of course, the 40-odd trade deals that the EU already has with the rest of the world -- and that we have access to already; all of those we lose on the instant that we leave the EU without a deal. Most of the Trade Secretary's job, so far, has been trying to ensure that these trade deals are replicated on our departure. He has not had that much luck. The rest of the world tends to prefer dealing with the EU as a whole, than Britain separately.

Perhaps that's yet another group of people you should give more consideration to.

[jim360]

Meanwhile, I just want to reiterate this point again: there is nothing I would rather have from the next year than to look a fool over all this. The most likely scenario at this point is probably that we'll never get to test what the true effects of a No deal exit are, but in the event that we do I cannot stress enough how ecstatic I'll be if in a year or so the UK survives essentially unscatched, and you and others can crow to your heart's content about how short-sighted and pessimistic I was, how suckered by the anti-Brexit propaganda.

But perhaps it's better to save that for afterwards, and to be a little less indifferent to the risks that a No Deal represents, and to the numerous voices, from all sides of the debate, pointing to this risk.

[Ellipsis]

Last night's This Week was very informative ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0c13ylb/this-week-24012019

Watch from 6:33 to 20:50 to see the case for and against No-Deal Brexit.