Peterborough By-Election

[Gromit]

The constituency has a long history of floating. In 1974 it returned a Conservative in February and Labour in October. Since then it has yo-yoed at each election between Labour and Conservative.
But this time there is the Brexit Party who will probably do very well, at the expense of the Conservatives. The LibDems are unlikely to do well soitis a two horse race.
What do you think will happen:
- Brexit wins because voters have abandoned the Conservative Government and the former Labour MP left in disgrace
- Labour wins because the Tory and Brexit opposition split the anti Labour vote
- Another result/ reason, please specify.

[Hopkirk]

Why do you discount the LibDems?

They are the traditional protest vote for both Tory and Labour voters, and did well in the Euros.

[naomi24]

//the former Labour MP left in disgrace //

The current Labour candidate is already in disgrace so hopefully she won't be in the running.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/peterborough-byelection-labour-antisemitism-lisa-forbes-theresa-may-zionist-a8940696.html

The Brexit party will probably do very well.

[CrapAtCryptics]

The odds of a Brexit party win are 1/6 on............

[CrapAtCryptics]

6 times as many people signed the recall petition as were required - so my guess is the Brexit party as the 2 main parties and the Lib Dems are losing direction and to busy slagging each other off.

[agchristie]

Bookies rarely get it wrong.

I've seen 1/7 offered so it will be a massive upset if the Brexit Party don't win despite the historical yo-yo-ing.

[ToraToraTora]

Gromit you seem to be in denial that there are any brexit supporters in Labour, there are. "But this time there is the Brexit Party who will probably do very well, at the expense of the Conservatives." - and Labour. The electorate are mightily angry with both the main parties. Peterborough was 60/40 brexit at the referendum so I expect brexit to win with the Lib NonDems second. Tories and Labour will both get a kicking.

[ichkeria]

Labour are likely to lose votes to the Lib Dems because of the previous incumbent and some for the Brexit factor.
Therefore I cannot see them winning.
The Tories will lose votes to both sides for the Brexit factor. And given they are starting from a lower base anyway....
So I predict the BP will triumph and cue endless crowing from Farage (already calling it bigger than the referendum)
I would like to be wrong. Farage is a divisive figure all the same, even though he’s not actually the candidate, and he’ll have to rely on a strong “Brexit” factor as I doubt people will back them otherwise.

[Gromit]

Just checked and Peterborough voted Leave in the referendum by 60-40.
So BP should win it.

[ichkeria]

Interestingly the BP have had posters up in Peterborough - half light blue half yellow - one half Cable one half Farage - telling everyone to vote for the Lib Dems if they want to Remain in the EU.
Cheers guys :-)

[naomi24]

^Good. Hopefully those who may have voted LibDem but have the moral fortitude to respect democracy will take note and steer well clear.

[jim360]

Wanting to overturn the result of the 2016 referendum by holding a second referendum is not disrespectful of democracy.

[jim360]

But on a separate note, I had missed the story about the Labour candidate, so thanks for posting it, Naomi.

[lankeela]

Do people no longer vote for the the candidate who will best represent their constituents' views on a wide range of issues?

[Spicerack]

Yeah. That's why the Brexit Party are 1/7 favourites.

[ichkeria]

It’s less likely in a by-election
However local factors should not be discounted. Depends if the people of Peterborough feel strongly enough about Brexit to disregard other issues.
They may not. Plainly the reason for those BP posters is to pump people up about Brexit

[Jackdaw33]

As has been pointed out, Peterborough is a very marginal seat. It was held for years by Sir Harmar Nicholls (father of Sue Nicholls, Audrey in Corrie) often with a majority in single figures, The lowest was 3. There were frequently numerous recounts. He scraped home in February 1974 but lost in October.

[-Talbot-]

Wanting to overturn the result of the 2016 referendum by holding a second referendum is not disrespectful of democracy if it wasn't the result you desired.

[jim360]

Well it would be a bit strange to want to overturn the result of the referendum if it not only *was* the result you desired but also still is.

[naomi24]

//Wanting to overturn the result of the 2016 referendum by holding a second referendum is not disrespectful of democracy. //

It is if the result of the first has never been actioned.

[ichkeria]

We’ve spent the last 3 years doing little else.