It's also worth saying that I can think of at least four plausible scenarios in which we *do* get an early election, whatever Johnson says today:
1. We don't leave on 31st October, Johnson resigns, VONC forces collapse in government. Early election inevitable.
2. We don't leave on 31st October. Johnson does *not* resign, but instead argues -- not unreasonably -- that he would have led us out on 31st October, but cannot do so with the current Parliament, and so attempts to trigger an election. Opposition parties can hardly say no. Early election inevitable.
3. We do leave on 31st October, in a No Deal scenario, and it turns out to be as bad as various economic scenarios have suggested. Chaos reigns, and even if it is only short-term, then it is enough to plunge the government into crisis and lead to an early election.
4. We do leave in 31st October, again without a Deal, but it turns out to be relatively calm after all. In his moment of triumph over the shame-faced "gloomsters", and with an inevitable stupidly strong poll bounce, do you really think Johnson isn't going to argue that he needs a stronger mandate to make the most of his success?