Why Is Covid-19 Less Survivable In The Uk?

[Gromit]

According to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle released yesterday, the UK could be the European country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic, suffering a death toll over 66,000 by August.
The IHME, which produces the Global Burden of Disease study, believes that deaths in the UK will peak with an estimated 2,932 deaths on 17 April, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by 4 August.
In the EU, Italy, Spain and France are forecast to suffer the highest death tolls, at 20,200, 19,209 and 15,058 respectively by 4 August.

https://ibb.co/pyhxVVb

[jim360]

Who here has willingly swallowed them?

[jim360]

As an aside, I am highly sceptical about a model that projects fewer total deaths in the US than in the UK. Their 66,000 figure is either going to be revised down, or the US's revised up, in the coming days.

[fiction-factory]

So we accept yours were wrong, Togo. I never swallowed yours in the first place actually- that's why I queried the source.
We don't know whether those in the OP are wrong because they haven't happened yet- they are a forecast- although I doubt they will turn out to be close to being accurate, and most of us have certainly not swallowed them

[cassa333]

I tend to think worst case scenario figures are good for us.

It galvanises the mind of people to follow the rules and at the end of it they can say ,,, the fewer numbers were because we took the right precautions.

[KARL]

TTT 19.47, I am proud to receive your compliment. Thank you.

[Gromit]

// I am highly sceptical about a model that projects fewer total deaths in the US than in the UK. //

They predict 81,726 deaths in the US, and 66,000 in the UK.

https://ibb.co/pyhxVVb

[tonyav]

Without Graphs and such like, the law of averages ( on population ) say's that the USA will have more deaths than the UK.

[Togo]

The latest from IHME.

""An unintentional upload error to our data visualization tool has resulted in IHME issuing incorrect ranges of cumulative deaths in Europe related to COVID-19 in an April 6 press release and on its website. Specifically, the error was associated with the range of possible numbers of cumulative deaths over the course of the pandemic – from the Institute’s lowest expected number of cumulative deaths, the “mean” or likely number of potential deaths, and the highest number of cumulative deaths.
IHME regrets the data upload error.""

Oh Dear......everybody back on the bus.
Meanwhile this morning up until 10.45 there were 84 flights into Heathrow including flights from Lahore and Islamabad. Unbelievable numbers of flights from Dublin and Cork into Heathrow is Ireland empty yet or is it being used as a staging post to hide immigration stats?

[mushroom25]

//Meanwhile this morning up until 10.45 there were 84 flights into Heathrow //

84 flights - but once codeshares are factored out, this equates to around 30 arriving aircraft. the "flights" from Dublin were all on a single aircraft - an airbus 320 operated by Aer Lingus.

[jim360]

Thanks, Gromit, but I think that it's been updated since your image:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The latest version seems to me to show that the USA is projected to have 60,000 (31,000-126,000) deaths, and the UK 66,000 (27,000-150,000). Mind you, they haven't updated the UK figures in a few days, so I feel sure they'll be revised down. On the other hand I have a feeling they might need to revise the US's upwards, since at the moment IHME are predicting the epidemic to peak there in only a couple of days, and I'm not sure that's realistic.

[fiction-factory]

Thanks Togo. Just shows we shouldn't assume data on the internet is reliable- whether it be data and forecasts on Covid deaths or data on the number of flights (unless you meant one is an unbelievable number )

[Peter Pedant]

// Mind you, they haven't updated the UK figures in a few days, so I feel sure they'll be revised down. //

I am not sure if that is the game - maff-boy
your maff is OK but the game may well be - Look France Look England and we will be like that if Pres Trump doesnt .....

in which case the inflated numbers will have a use ( they are not just numbers).

I have to say there has been some amazing off the cuff analysis of the data on this very thread - in that some Abers identified the number as duff before they did ....

[Peter Pedant]

\\ the number of flights (unless you meant one is an unbelievable number )//
oh yo mean it is believable because it looks unbelievable?

COOOOOOOL !

credo quia incredibilis - Tertulliam ....[ "Ter - hoo - lian" a thousand sing in Chorus, "halleluia!"

T said that about the resurrection and hey here we are on Maundy Thurday in Passion Week, so it is a nice eastery comment

eastery. Latin, completely incomprehensible, I think I have covered all my corners here

[Togo]

The "projected" UK death rates use to support this model were April 6th 1258(actual 439), April 7th 1233(actual 786), April 8th 1433(actual 938) Today 1616....who knows? Except We know it won't be that figure.

[Peter Pedant]

// The "projected" UK death rates used ..... yippety yap, blah blah blah Today 1616....who knows? Except We know it won't be that figure.//

does anyone mind if I say that put in wrong projected figures then your projections are gonna be wrong ?

garbage in garbage out - but we knew that on Mar 1 innit

( I mean I am not speaking above you all - - - am I ?)

[Togo]

//Look France Look England and we will be like that if Pres Trump doesnt .....

in which case the inflated numbers will have a use ( they are not just numbers).//sic

After deciphering the hieroglyphics and general scribble I presume that means that this was a political ploy.......from a quango who big themselves up with this statement in their self promotion.

"" For health evidence to be useful, it also must be credible, generated by a scientific process unimpeded by political, financial, or other types of interference""

You bet.

[Spicerack]

All these computer modelers should stick to predicting the temperature rises in a hundred years time.
They'll be long gone by the time people are under the polar ice-cap.

[Togo]

Remember the "projected" death rate from the IHME for Thursday 9th March? Reminder it was 1616. Actual 882. Their projected "rate for today was revised down by at least 50% to 1308. What will it be? Not what they predict. Slapdash just like the groin clutchers who so wanted it all to be trooooo.

[jim360]

Yes, a significant downwards revision, but I'm still perplexed by the gloating. Gromit aside, that revision was pretty well to be expected.

But there's something slightly pathetic about thinking that crowing over 980 deaths today, as opposed to 1300, is somehow worth it. Whether 66000, 37000, somewhere in between, or fewer, die in the "first wave", the fact is that this has been and will be a serious threat to many lives and livelihoods, now and in the future.

[Gromit]

// A US institute that predicted deaths from Covid-19 in the UK would be the highest in Europe at 66,000 has revised down its forecasts as a result of new data.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, now predicts 37,494 deaths in the UK by 4 August, although it said the figure could be between 26,000 and 62,500.

Despite the lower figure, it still predicts the UK will have the highest death toll in Europe. //