Body & Soul8 mins ago
Is The Cure Worse Than The Disease?
164 Answers
An interesting view from Peter Hitchens here. Has he got a point?
Answers
When the pubs were ordered to close on March 20th and the other lockdown measures followed I posted somewhere on here that I doubt that it would do any good. I based my doubts on the fact that similar (if not harsher) measures had failed to halt the rise in the number of new cases in Italy (who were said to be about two weeks ahead of the UK with the crisis). Well we’re...
15:17 Sun 12th Apr 2020
Except that your figures are (a) based on only confirmed cases, making them certainly an overestimate of the fatality rate, (b) the consensus on Covid-19's overall fatality rate* is somewhere less than 1% but more than 0.1%, so I haven't plucked a figure out at random, (c) it doesn't taken long to spot that 10% of people dying is far worse than 0.5% of people dying when the disease is so virulent so on that basis by 300,000 might even be optimistic in a no-lockdown scenario, and (d) the principal flaw in your thinking is some bizarre and utterly mistaken claim that people "could be forgiven for thinking" that I've ever portrayed Covid-19 as automatically fatal. I have not. It's completely false to imply otherwise, and I'll thank you to withdraw that allegation and admit your mistake in ever suggesting it.
*The fatality rate for Covid is showing huge variations by age, so it's difficult to give a precise figure, but since we are all agreed that there are more actual cases than there are confirmed cases, then 10% is certainly too high.
*The fatality rate for Covid is showing huge variations by age, so it's difficult to give a precise figure, but since we are all agreed that there are more actual cases than there are confirmed cases, then 10% is certainly too high.
>That illustrates the naivety of someone who is sheltered in a safe job and has no conception of a life outside that.
Well, assuming you were talking about me, naomi, as you referred to my comment, I'm not sheltered in a safe job. I am effectively a freelancer who offers my services to agencies , schools and local authorities who use me as required on zero hours type contracts, plus some private work. No work for me for the last 4 weeks or next 3 months. But I knew that when I went on freelance and made sure I had savings and enough to survive quiet spells (and I used to get long quiet spells).
So do you want to think again? Or were you not referring to me?
Well, assuming you were talking about me, naomi, as you referred to my comment, I'm not sheltered in a safe job. I am effectively a freelancer who offers my services to agencies , schools and local authorities who use me as required on zero hours type contracts, plus some private work. No work for me for the last 4 weeks or next 3 months. But I knew that when I went on freelance and made sure I had savings and enough to survive quiet spells (and I used to get long quiet spells).
So do you want to think again? Or were you not referring to me?
Just to end this on a relative note of agreement:
// //Some of the self employed who have had no money coming in seem to be in desperate straights now- but surely being self employed one should have something in place to get you through a quiet month.//
^That illustrates the naivety of someone who is sheltered in a safe job and has no conception of a life outside that. Of course they’re in desperate straights. They don’t depend upon someone else paying a regular wage into their bank account every month regardless of whether they’re working or not. Their livelihoods are volatile at the best of times. If they don’t work they don’t earn - it’s as simple as that. When this is over those who are employed in ‘safe’ jobs will simply go back to work, confident of their regular salaries and confident of their pensions. The same cannot be said for the self-employed. //
On this I have nothing else to add beyond what Naomi's said.
// //Some of the self employed who have had no money coming in seem to be in desperate straights now- but surely being self employed one should have something in place to get you through a quiet month.//
^That illustrates the naivety of someone who is sheltered in a safe job and has no conception of a life outside that. Of course they’re in desperate straights. They don’t depend upon someone else paying a regular wage into their bank account every month regardless of whether they’re working or not. Their livelihoods are volatile at the best of times. If they don’t work they don’t earn - it’s as simple as that. When this is over those who are employed in ‘safe’ jobs will simply go back to work, confident of their regular salaries and confident of their pensions. The same cannot be said for the self-employed. //
On this I have nothing else to add beyond what Naomi's said.
I was talking who are struggling already after a month, perhaps while they wait for the UC or grants/self employed furlough payments to come through. Clearly if a self employed person will lose business for maybe 6 months and maybe will never get back into that field and had invested all their savings into that, then that is a different matter
>fiction-factory, You were obviously in a job that paid a regular wage and enabled you to save. No, I don’t want to think again.
No, I realise you have already stopped thinking. I have been freelance for 11 years now. Yes, I had redundancy money as a cushion from a previous salaried job, and fortunately have been lucky enough to be able to add to that from saving freelance earnings in case of a rainy day.
No, I realise you have already stopped thinking. I have been freelance for 11 years now. Yes, I had redundancy money as a cushion from a previous salaried job, and fortunately have been lucky enough to be able to add to that from saving freelance earnings in case of a rainy day.
//Some of the self employed who have had no money coming in seem to be in desperate straights now- but surely being self employed one should have something in place to get you through a quiet month.//
In my experiences, January and February are usually the quiet months. March and April are when you can usually start to get back to normal
In my experiences, January and February are usually the quiet months. March and April are when you can usually start to get back to normal
Time to get back to work.
As pointed out, all well and good for those in safe jobs with incomes coming in t get high and mighty. Many dont and many will go broke and that will lead to death and severe mass poverty.
Economy over covid deaths?, yes if tanking the economy will cause more deaths and terrible poverty and no NHS as we wont have enough to pay for it!
Excellent BA NJ by the way.
As pointed out, all well and good for those in safe jobs with incomes coming in t get high and mighty. Many dont and many will go broke and that will lead to death and severe mass poverty.
Economy over covid deaths?, yes if tanking the economy will cause more deaths and terrible poverty and no NHS as we wont have enough to pay for it!
Excellent BA NJ by the way.
//In the end though if we end up destroying the economy many more may suffer than the disease effects directly.//
Which is exactly where we came in. The government must soon make a decision on whether the cure really is worse than the disease because up to now that does not seem to have been a consideration. Somebody earlier on this thread answered that question with a definite “No. Just ask somebody who has lost a loved one”. Well in a few month’s time ask somebody else who has just lost a loved one through tardy or non-existent cancer treatment, or somebody whose loved one had committed suicide because his business went down the pan because of the lockdown. Multiply those across the country. Also compare the deaths from Covid with the average number of deaths that occur every day in the UK (about 1,600, I believe). My friend’s wife died with coronavirus. But, as far as my pal is concerned, she didn’t die of it. She was not expected to see the summer anyway as she was seriously ill. But her death certificate states she died of the virus. This is simply not as straightforward as we are being led to believe.
Which is exactly where we came in. The government must soon make a decision on whether the cure really is worse than the disease because up to now that does not seem to have been a consideration. Somebody earlier on this thread answered that question with a definite “No. Just ask somebody who has lost a loved one”. Well in a few month’s time ask somebody else who has just lost a loved one through tardy or non-existent cancer treatment, or somebody whose loved one had committed suicide because his business went down the pan because of the lockdown. Multiply those across the country. Also compare the deaths from Covid with the average number of deaths that occur every day in the UK (about 1,600, I believe). My friend’s wife died with coronavirus. But, as far as my pal is concerned, she didn’t die of it. She was not expected to see the summer anyway as she was seriously ill. But her death certificate states she died of the virus. This is simply not as straightforward as we are being led to believe.
This was debated very interestingly in the NY Times mag a few days ago (same link as my separate post):
https:/
https:/
Comparisons to the background death rate will become more chilling tomorrow, most likely, when the ONS releases its latest data update for weekly deaths in 2020. Also, the situation with co-morbidities is clearly complicated, but it's apparent that people are dying sooner than they would have even if they had underlying conditions, so there can be little doubt that CoronaVirus is contributing to hastening their death.
Still, if you're going to be cynical, why not go the whole hog? The current mortality rate of humanity is 100% in the long run, so there's no reason to take health seriously at all... clearly, that's nonsense, but it's odd that people are using any variation of this to argue against taking a major health crisis seriously.
Still, if you're going to be cynical, why not go the whole hog? The current mortality rate of humanity is 100% in the long run, so there's no reason to take health seriously at all... clearly, that's nonsense, but it's odd that people are using any variation of this to argue against taking a major health crisis seriously.
New fugures are due soon but in rhe neantime the ONS has this.
"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average."
That's a 10% increase on the average.
"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) was 11,141; this represents an increase of 496 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 12) and 1,011 more than the five-year average."
That's a 10% increase on the average.
jim: "Exactly who, pray, is leading us to believe this is straightforward?" - some on this and other threads seem only to consider what the virus is doing and sod the economy. As NJ and YMB point out that more will die if we are too skint to pay for an NHS and other public services. That way lies anarchy. With what is happening now, we are, at some point going reach the stage where the cure is indeed worse than the disease.
fiction-factory, //No, I realise you have already stopped thinking.//
No need to be rude, fiction-factory, but since you mentioned thinking, perhaps you need to do a bit more because you appear to have no conception of life for those who don’t have the opportunities or the education you’ve had, who would never be considered for a salaried job, but nevertheless, have the wherewithal to struggle to build a little business for themselves. For those people there is no cushion - not even the cushion of a bit put by in the bank until their business is well-established. I know many who in order to build their businesses have lived hand-to-mouth - and you talk about saving? You have no idea. None whatsoever.
No need to be rude, fiction-factory, but since you mentioned thinking, perhaps you need to do a bit more because you appear to have no conception of life for those who don’t have the opportunities or the education you’ve had, who would never be considered for a salaried job, but nevertheless, have the wherewithal to struggle to build a little business for themselves. For those people there is no cushion - not even the cushion of a bit put by in the bank until their business is well-established. I know many who in order to build their businesses have lived hand-to-mouth - and you talk about saving? You have no idea. None whatsoever.
Would you, right now, knowingly take a small dose of CV-19 ... and expect everyone else in the country to do likewise ... so that we could get back to normal?
I would not. It's a daft idea, but it's not much different to returning to normal first - everyone would soon get a quick dose, and not necessarily a small one either.
I would not. It's a daft idea, but it's not much different to returning to normal first - everyone would soon get a quick dose, and not necessarily a small one either.
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