10Pm Closing. What Is The Evidence ?

[Sunk]

// Boris Johnson has been challenged to publish the scientific evidence behind the 10pm closing time for English pubs ahead of a vote by MPs next week. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the public "deserved to know" the basis for the restriction and if it could not be justified the rule must be reviewed. //

It is unlikely the Government will supply any compelling evidence in support of the measure (probably because none exists).

It is also unlikely that the Conservative new recruits will rebel and the vote will go with the Government.

But it is an unpopular diktat. Are they taking the mandate of the electors for granted, and risk becoming unpopular ?

[New Judge]

//…but it was also a more or less inevitable consequence of the Government easing restrictions.//

Do you know what, Jim. I think we agree! And the alternative to that would have been to not ease restrictions. Those restrictions have caused untold damage as it is. Not to ease them would have been criminal.

//Blimey! The New “Judge” is now the New “Doctor” too!//

//Or maybe an epidemiologist or medical statistician?//

It goes without saying that I am none of those things. I don’t compile or prepare the statistics. I just read them. It think it is fairly common ground that around 80% of people who contract this virus experience no symptoms whatsoever. There are probably large numbers of people roaming round who don’t even know they have it or have had it (I may be one of them because Mrs NJ and I had something very nasty in early March). Of the remainder, most experience mild symptoms which cause little debilitation. Only a very small percentage experience serious symptoms and of those a number die.

//NJ, the link in your post at 22:03 showing the percentages of cases relating to the hospitality industry, refers only to acute respiratory infections, which are in the hundreds each week and not infections, which are in the thousands.//

It’s taken from the National Covid-19 Surveillance report. As I understand it, it measures “incidents”. It’s not made entirely clear but I took this to mean premises where outbreaks have been traced to broken down into business/service classes, so regardless of the number of infections involved. The MD of a large pub chain which announced closures and redundancies today stated that less that 1% of the outlets in the chain had been contacted by the “Test & Trace” people. Of course that could be because of deficiencies in data collection by those outlets or in the T&T system, who knows?.

[allenlondon]

"Or maybe an epidemiologist or medical statistician?" Not sure about that, drmorgans, but he (the self-styled one) can't half type...

A

[Sunk]

Johnson :
// "What we've seen from the evidence is that the spread of the disease does tend to happen later at night after more alcohol has been consumed. //

Show us that evidence. I am very sceptical that they can pinpoint a time of day that covid transmits. People are in pubs all day, consuming alcohol all day, and leave at different times. But we are told the virus transmits mainly late at night? Doesn’t make any sense to me.

[Sunk]

From that BBC link earlier:

Public Health England releases figures on outbreaks of coronavirus by the type of institution.
* 148 outbreaks occurred in restaurants or food outlets
* 581 outbreaks in educational facilities
* 742 in care homes
* 492 in workplaces

No mention of pubs.

[Sunk]

Track and Trace revealed this data:

Of the 87,128 events people said they had attended in which there was some contact with others

12,734 were eating out
11,700 shopping trips
about 6,000 holiday trips
just under 5,000 school visits

Again, no mention of pubs.

[teacake44]

Its so simple to understand really, large crowds/ gatherings, whether during the day or late at night = higher risks of infection, more so if those large crowds/ gatherings are the worst for wear through drink.

[Sunk]

Thanks teacake.

So if you are in a full pub at 5pm you are safe, but if you are in at 10:15pm covid will get you. Johnson has been told this by someone, so it must be true.

[teacake44]

Numbers are limited at all times, but read my post at 22.13.

[SparklyKid]

There are probably large numbers of people roaming round who don’t even know they have it or have had it (I may be one of them because Mrs NJ and I had something very nasty in early March). Of the remainder, most experience mild symptoms which cause little debilitation. Only a very small percentage experience serious symptoms and of those a number die.

Whenever I read posts from NJ I feel quite comforted.

Brings a sense of reality to the current situation.

[teacake44]

But what people seem to fail to understand is that the government already know they can't get rid of this virus by lock down, or part lock down. The idea at the moment is to (try) and keep the infection rate down, to buy more time for drugs/ vaccine to come into play.

[Bobbisox1]

I think your right Sparkly but you post does read as if you and Mrs NJ are cohabitating :0))))

[Sunk]

Teacake

Demonstrations do not occur every 10pm everyday. One alleged incident in Liverpool isn’t evidence of anything.
Pub venues have a limited capacity, and are turning away paying customers all day during busy periods. But it is only at 10:15pm that corona selects its latest victim?

[iluvmargie]

I always read NJ's posts on this subject and heartily agree with every one of them. He is indeed the voice of common sense.

[Bobbisox1]

^^^ ditto

[Sunk]

IF drunken people are a major factor in spreading the virus (even though there seems to be no data to confirm that) then close the pubs and bars until a vaccine is available.
This fantasy/myth that the time after 10pm is when the infection is more likely to occur is a fairy story.

[dave50]

If the government has to go to such extreme measures to force people not to mix , then obviously they haven't got the public with them.

[teacake44]

The evidence, Liverpool have the highest infection rate at the moment, 500 cases per 100.000. Regarding covid getting you at 10.15, you may well be right, considering from that time on wards is the time large crowds / gatherings become out of control through drink, and it appears more so up North. Most pubs during the day time don't attract such idiots.

[teacake44]

16.16 I also agree with a lot NJ says, but I'm afraid that if we did as NJ says, we would no doubt see another 50k dead, plus another 200/300 nurses and doctors dead also, that really wouldn't be protecting the NHS either way. And not much use standing there clapping in the street either, because that won't bring them back.

[bobbinwales]

Thats nonsense sunk, the virus is obviosly around at 10.00 aswell as 10.15. The idea is to reduce opening hours and its better to close the pub's 10-11 than at say 7-8 which would be extreamly inconveniant. The thing is tho we all know that there is a big problem with peopel who are tipsy by 11 oclock who then role out onto the street and crowd in tp chippys and kebab shops. With a 10.00 finnish yes some will start earlyer and be drunk by 10.00 but many will iether stay at home or just stay out an hour less, and pub's are already seeing sales down so its working. But a think that from what a seen in some pubs a lot of peopel are ignoring social distancing and are huggled round a table spraying spit in each others faces as they shout and laugh. So am expecting restrictions to be tightend. Nicola Sturgen is a step ahead and will get support from the Scotts. Borris will be criticised if he does or doesnt especialy by those who think his incompetant or just want torys out. Wales will quietly follow and restrict pub hours and get corona down again

[New Judge]

//The idea at the moment is to (try) and keep the infection rate down, to buy more time for drugs/ vaccine to come into play.//

Well I’m glad somebody knows what the idea is. I haven’t seen published anywhere what the aim of all these measures is since “Stay at Home; Protect the NHS; Save Lives”.

// but I'm afraid that if we did as NJ says, we would no doubt see another 50k dead, plus another 200/300 nurses and doctors dead also,//

How do you know that?

The spread of the virus cannot be controlled without trashing the economy and causing long term non-Covid health problems. The government believes that it can but it can’t. They need to accept that.

I really don’t understand the obsession with pubs. All those I have visited (probably a dozen or so) have implemented good distancing measures. I certainly haven’t seen any of this:

//But a think that from what a seen in some pubs a lot of peopel are ignoring social distancing and are huggled round a table spraying spit in each others faces as they shout and laugh.//

I’ve seen people laughing and chatting. It’s what people do and if they don’t do it in pubs they will do it elsewhere where perhaps the tables (if there are any) are not so well spaced out.