Quizzes & Puzzles49 mins ago
So What's The Truth?
I thought of adding further comments to this question:
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but decided to add (yet) another for today's entertainment. My comments are (as usual) lengthy and too long to post in the question so they follow.
https:/
but decided to add (yet) another for today's entertainment. My comments are (as usual) lengthy and too long to post in the question so they follow.
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In the earlier question I expressed grave doubts about the comments being made that the NHS was “hanging by a thread” (or some other sensational description). In today’s Telegraph there is an article which rather vindicates my viewpoint (which, according to some, means that I have “lost the plot”). Here’s a link to the article. It’s behind the DT’s paywall but if you press “escape” as the text is loading you should be able to see it:
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In case you can’t, it’s headlined “ Hospital intensive care no busier than normal for most trusts, leaked documents show." Here’s a few snippets:
“An update from the NHS Secondary Uses Services (SUS), seen by The Telegraph, shows that capacity is tracking as normal in October with the usual numbers of beds available that would be expected at this time of year, even without extra surge capacity. An NHS source said: "As you can see, our current position in October is exactly where we have been over the last five years."
“Although there has been a reduction in surge capacity since the first wave, with the closure of the emergency Nightingale Hospitals, there is still 15 per cent spare capacity across the country – fairly normal for this time of year.”
“In critical care, around 18 per cent of beds are still unoccupied, although it varies between regions. However, even in the worst affected areas, such as North-West, only 92.9 per cent of critical care beds are currently occupied.”
“Commenting on the new data, Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: "This is completely in line with what is normally available at this time of year. What I don't understand is that I seem to be looking at a different dataset to what the Government is presenting. Everything is looking at normal levels and free bed capacity is still significant, even in high dependency units and intensive care, even though we have a very small number across the board. We are starting to see a drop in people in hospitals.”
There’s lots more and it’s worth reading if you can. This is not about disputing the validity of the forecast that prompted the latest lockdown. It is about a major discrepancy in what we are being told is happening and what is actually the truth.
So who is telling the porkies, and why?
https:/
In case you can’t, it’s headlined “ Hospital intensive care no busier than normal for most trusts, leaked documents show." Here’s a few snippets:
“An update from the NHS Secondary Uses Services (SUS), seen by The Telegraph, shows that capacity is tracking as normal in October with the usual numbers of beds available that would be expected at this time of year, even without extra surge capacity. An NHS source said: "As you can see, our current position in October is exactly where we have been over the last five years."
“Although there has been a reduction in surge capacity since the first wave, with the closure of the emergency Nightingale Hospitals, there is still 15 per cent spare capacity across the country – fairly normal for this time of year.”
“In critical care, around 18 per cent of beds are still unoccupied, although it varies between regions. However, even in the worst affected areas, such as North-West, only 92.9 per cent of critical care beds are currently occupied.”
“Commenting on the new data, Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: "This is completely in line with what is normally available at this time of year. What I don't understand is that I seem to be looking at a different dataset to what the Government is presenting. Everything is looking at normal levels and free bed capacity is still significant, even in high dependency units and intensive care, even though we have a very small number across the board. We are starting to see a drop in people in hospitals.”
There’s lots more and it’s worth reading if you can. This is not about disputing the validity of the forecast that prompted the latest lockdown. It is about a major discrepancy in what we are being told is happening and what is actually the truth.
So who is telling the porkies, and why?
part of "the truth" is that treatment has changed (where is PP? he posted about this recently) As I recall, less people are being intubated as not only does it not help it may make things worse. More are being given remdesivir and/or dexamethazone and/or oxygen in less invasive forms which don't require maintained sedation and therefore don't require ITU.
I don't think anyone is telling "porkies". As far as I understood it, the fear was about what will happen in a few weeks' time, based on current trends. That seems reasonable, as the number of hospitalisations due to Covid rose significantly over October and doesn't seem to me to be slowing down yet. The number of Covid deaths is also rising -- figures from the ONS, that are around two weeks behind the current picture, suggest that there was around a 10% mortality excess in the third week of October, and we can clearly expect this excess to increase for a few weeks to come.
Additionally, the fact that many hospitals aren't (yet?) facing a strain doesn't diminish the equally valid fact that several are getting close to capacity. There could be the expectation of a chain reaction: one hospital fills up, offloads the excess to another, which fills up more rapidly also, and so on. All of this is projection, but fits with the expectation of, for example, the April peak, or fits with what we are seeing in other countries too.
Finally, if you take steps to prevent something, then I don't see how that thing not happening is an argument against taking those steps. We can, obviously, never prove that, if we did nothing, the situation would be as dire as predicted, but it's clearly relevant and material that the UK has stepped up, and will continue to step up, its restrictions in order to prevent this exact scenario.
Additionally, the fact that many hospitals aren't (yet?) facing a strain doesn't diminish the equally valid fact that several are getting close to capacity. There could be the expectation of a chain reaction: one hospital fills up, offloads the excess to another, which fills up more rapidly also, and so on. All of this is projection, but fits with the expectation of, for example, the April peak, or fits with what we are seeing in other countries too.
Finally, if you take steps to prevent something, then I don't see how that thing not happening is an argument against taking those steps. We can, obviously, never prove that, if we did nothing, the situation would be as dire as predicted, but it's clearly relevant and material that the UK has stepped up, and will continue to step up, its restrictions in order to prevent this exact scenario.
Nice one Judge, I like the escape key dodge. What with this information and the recent disclosures that the figures used to justify the latest lockdown were false, only a dullard would not have massive doubts about the legitimacy and veracity of the measures being forced on the Country. On a more positive note according to Pulse, the Doctor's mag, surgeries are being asked to prepare to give a covid vaccine to the over 85s and frontline workers from the beginning of December. I still can't understand why the NHS has been unable to instigate it's own test regime for all staff members. It is as if they don't want to know who has it. Now it looks as if any vaccination programme for it's staff has to be done via Doctor's surgeries. Why? Considering the amounts of loot that we shovel into it should the NHS not be able to conduct it's own tests and administer it's own vaccinations. Perhaps they will all need a day off to go to the doctor. Gawd elpus.
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Liverpool University Hospital has had to send patients to other hospitals.They are definitely at capacity.
As for the rest of the NHS? I am concerned about bowel cancer symptoms. (I have Crohns).
My consultant at Arrowe Park Hospital, Wirral, has left post, not been replaced.
The best I can get after a few months of chasing this up, was advice to attend A&E, and a telephone consultation next Monday, with a hospital clinic practise nurse.
A promised test kit never arrived in the post. Waited three months for it.
Can't contact GP, answering machine.
I feel failed, but I understand the pressure they are all under.
As for the rest of the NHS? I am concerned about bowel cancer symptoms. (I have Crohns).
My consultant at Arrowe Park Hospital, Wirral, has left post, not been replaced.
The best I can get after a few months of chasing this up, was advice to attend A&E, and a telephone consultation next Monday, with a hospital clinic practise nurse.
A promised test kit never arrived in the post. Waited three months for it.
Can't contact GP, answering machine.
I feel failed, but I understand the pressure they are all under.
Talking about current levels of bed occupancy and admissions to hospital, Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said:
"This is completely in line with what is normally available at this time of year. What I don't understand is that I seem to be looking at a different dataset to what the Government is presenting.
"Everything is looking at normal levels and free bed capacity is still significant, even in high dependency units and intensive care, even though we have a very small number across the board. We are starting to see a drop in people in hospitals.
"Tier 3 restrictions are working phenomenally well and, rather than locking down, I would be using this moment to increase capacity."
On Saturday, Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty warned at a press conference that bed usage would be exceeded on November 20, and even extra surge beds would be used up a few days later.
"This is completely in line with what is normally available at this time of year. What I don't understand is that I seem to be looking at a different dataset to what the Government is presenting.
"Everything is looking at normal levels and free bed capacity is still significant, even in high dependency units and intensive care, even though we have a very small number across the board. We are starting to see a drop in people in hospitals.
"Tier 3 restrictions are working phenomenally well and, rather than locking down, I would be using this moment to increase capacity."
On Saturday, Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty warned at a press conference that bed usage would be exceeded on November 20, and even extra surge beds would be used up a few days later.
Life to you NJ must be very confusing and recommendations irritating and ican understand that.
If you really want to know what is going on then go out into the world and meet the people on the front line, the doctors the nurses,the medical and nursing support staff , you must know someone in that theatre of health.
Be suspicious of any statistics, studies,publications that you read in the media and particularly medical journals.
Percentages, graphs, slide presentations and particularly this evasive and all conquering R factor.
I have been attending lectures, case presentations etc at the Royal Society of Medicine for almost 40 years and the value of gained knowledge was chatting to my mates about medical topics at a restaurant, pub, massage parlour or night club.
Talk to the people who really know.
Hospital admissions are climbing,intensive care beds are filling and in many cases they are struggling to cope with Covid case. Yes, antivirals,steroids etc all help...but not enough and in themselves are not the answer. This situation will spread and worsen iver the ensuing weeks and will have improved by Dec2 due to the effects of the lockdown.
Why is there a diversity of statistics analysis and conclusions.?...because of economy of the truth for either Political expedience or,in many cases...bloody mindedness.
If you really want to know what is going on then go out into the world and meet the people on the front line, the doctors the nurses,the medical and nursing support staff , you must know someone in that theatre of health.
Be suspicious of any statistics, studies,publications that you read in the media and particularly medical journals.
Percentages, graphs, slide presentations and particularly this evasive and all conquering R factor.
I have been attending lectures, case presentations etc at the Royal Society of Medicine for almost 40 years and the value of gained knowledge was chatting to my mates about medical topics at a restaurant, pub, massage parlour or night club.
Talk to the people who really know.
Hospital admissions are climbing,intensive care beds are filling and in many cases they are struggling to cope with Covid case. Yes, antivirals,steroids etc all help...but not enough and in themselves are not the answer. This situation will spread and worsen iver the ensuing weeks and will have improved by Dec2 due to the effects of the lockdown.
Why is there a diversity of statistics analysis and conclusions.?...because of economy of the truth for either Political expedience or,in many cases...bloody mindedness.
Sorry can’t do links but there is an article on the BBC news website saying this. It also says that the figures used on Saturday were out of date and didn’t include adjustments needed for the implementation of the Tier system.
From the front page of the Telegraph on the BBC website, Even Chris Whitty is conceding his predictions were wrong.
From the front page of the Telegraph on the BBC website, Even Chris Whitty is conceding his predictions were wrong.
'If you really want to know what is going on then go out into the world and meet the people on the front line, the doctors the nurses,the medical and nursing support staff'
Well said, Sqad.
I can tell you 100% NJ, there are no scare tactics going on. Wards are being converted to pure covid wards on a daily basis. People in hospital for other reasons are catching covid whilst they are there.
Cases are rising in the hospital where Mrs Z works by a factor of 10 per day i.e. 80 Monday, 90 Tuesday, 100 wednesday......
Staff are leaving because they can't cope with the pressure (and not just at porter / cleaner level). Staff are using the excuse of potential covid symptoms within their family to stay away (some are obviously genuine). Track and trace results are (quite rightly) forcing staff to leave.
Well said, Sqad.
I can tell you 100% NJ, there are no scare tactics going on. Wards are being converted to pure covid wards on a daily basis. People in hospital for other reasons are catching covid whilst they are there.
Cases are rising in the hospital where Mrs Z works by a factor of 10 per day i.e. 80 Monday, 90 Tuesday, 100 wednesday......
Staff are leaving because they can't cope with the pressure (and not just at porter / cleaner level). Staff are using the excuse of potential covid symptoms within their family to stay away (some are obviously genuine). Track and trace results are (quite rightly) forcing staff to leave.
And whats really being missed here in my view is that at the beginning of this year there were 40.000 vacancies for nurses, why, because its reported that 50% are quitting after only 3 years, due to the long 12 hour shifts, at times without breaks/ eating, and stress, even before covid started.
For Matt Hancock now to brag that a record level of nurses have joined the NHS, around 13.000 according to NJ on another thread, is a drop in the ocean. Any number picked out of a hat will be recorded as a record due to the last ten years of raping the NHS of workers. Hancock is not so keen on giving figures for the ones throwing the towel in. It won't be long before their telling us that a record amount have joined the police force, same thing, they raped that.
For Matt Hancock now to brag that a record level of nurses have joined the NHS, around 13.000 according to NJ on another thread, is a drop in the ocean. Any number picked out of a hat will be recorded as a record due to the last ten years of raping the NHS of workers. Hancock is not so keen on giving figures for the ones throwing the towel in. It won't be long before their telling us that a record amount have joined the police force, same thing, they raped that.
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