Lockdown Squared?

[ToraToraTora]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55529640
we are already in T4 any idea what further measures could be imposed?

[Sqad]

danny

/////Don't you think that the Sage team should take some of the blame? It's their advice that Johnson has followed for most of the time.////

We don't know what advice they gave to the Government.

[New Judge]

//Will england be next to follow Scotland:-//

I haven't read all the minutiae of the Scottish proposals but in essence it looks like, if anything, Scotland is following England (at least the English Tier 4 areas, anyway):

//The SNP leader said the new crackdown, lasting all of January, will include a legally enforceable stay-at-home rule.//

T4 in England already has such a rule.

//Rules on outdoor gatherings will be tightened to allow a maximum of just two people from two households to meet outdoors.//

The same as England T4.

//Meanwhile, places fo worship will be closed from this Friday but weddings and funerals will still be allowed to go ahead.//

Places of worship are still allowed to open in T4 (this is about the only substantial difference I can find).

//A maximum of 20 people will be allowed to attend funerals and a maximum of five people will be allowed to attend weddings.//

It’s 30 and six in T4.

The Westminster government and the Scottish Parliament have been trying various "mix-and-match" varieties of the above for getting on for a year. None of it seems to work. In fact, in the summer, restrictions were at their loosest and infections were at their lowest - the very opposite of what you'd expect. Either the restrictions don't work or they are not being adhered to (or perhaps a bit of both). I wonder what it is?

[jim360]

// It's [Sage's] advice that Johnson has followed for most of the time. //

The tier system was not a Sage recommendation, the Government did that anyway (and it's clearly been a failure). A lockdown in the middle of October, or even earlier, was a Sage recommendation, and the Government did not do this -- until November, and then for two weeks longer than it would have been under the Sage recommendation.

Indeed, Sage also recommended a lockdown in March two weeks before it was implemented. In short -- no, the Government isn't following Sage advice.

[dannyk13]

Sqad //We don't know what advice they gave to the Government.//
There have been numerous instances where the mdia have commented on what the scientists have advised.

[emmie]

i believe its that a fair proportion haven't followed the laws thus far.
how you get them to follow stricter laws, i have no idea.

[jim360]

The easing over Christmas was also a Government initiative, that had no scientific justification. The Government pressed ahead anyway, and then were, entirely predictably, forced to back down.

It may well be that Sage's advice has come too late itself, or perhaps was otherwise flawed. I don't claim that their advice is perfect and should be followed at all times without question. Still, the claim that the Government are just doing what they are told by their scientific masters is patently false.

[New Judge]

//Ban foreign travel.//

In Tier 4 foreign travel is effectively banned because you cannot leave home without a reasonable excuse. So you cannot go to the airport (unless you intend to get a pint of milk and a loaf in Barcelona).

[Sunk]

Leadership is about making the right decision at the right time.
Johnson has demonstrated for 10 months that that is not a skill he has.
He always makes the wrong decision, sticks with it until proves not to work, and then reluctantly makes a u-turn to the right decision. By then a lot of time has been wasted.
You might say that he makes the right decision in the end. Except in the present circumstances, time is lives. The more time he wastes, the more people are infected and die.

[Sqad]

Danny SAGE are advisers the Government are implementers.
Few people really know what SAGE advised.

[ToraToraTora]

sage advice is public knowledge. The Gov can;t win no matter what they do. The same people would be moaning about it if the government acted on everything they say. The scientists have the luxury of sayin what they think should be done without any fear of the actual effect. The government must weigh up the options. Gawd at the start we had people saying we should lock down everything totally without exception every time someone sneezes in China! If anyone here thinks they could have navigated this from the start any better or any different then let them cast the first stone.

[dannyk13]

Jim, I would love to hear what your solution to the problem would be?
As far as I can see Johnson is castigated for what he does and also for what he doesn't do.

[dannyk13]

TTT well said.Johnson is between a rock and a hard place, damned if does and damned if he doesn't.

[ToraToraTora]

danny, inevitably all the labourites are going to slag off whatever the government does because their man lost. One thing they never get into though is what would Jezza do?

[jim360]

Since my "solution" is related to what should have been done in September-October, I'm not sure I have anything useful to suggest for January. Right now, though: a proper and strict lockdown that extends until case numbers (a) drop, and (b) drop significantly, alongside the required mass vaccination programme that is still being rolled out. Alongside that, I'd welcome plenty more humility from the Government than they have shown so far. It is, at the very least, pretty disgraceful of Patel to speak on the Government's behalf and claim, falsely, that they are "ahead of the curve". They are not, and it is an insult to the public to pretend otherwise and expect us to believe this.

[Sunk]

Tora,
Starmer says what Labour would do.
And days if not weeks later Johnson does just that.

[douglas9401]

One thing stands out as completely futile, the refusal to accept any criticism at all of the tousle-haired mastermind from his fanboys and girls.

The PM wants to be your mate and will risk your life to prove it.

[jim360]

It's also clear nonsense that Johnson will be damned if he does or doesn't take action, at least in the sense that it will be the same people. For example, most of the opposition to the Government's measures so far has come from the Tories, with Labour usually waving through, or at most abstaining from, key votes to implement the lockdown and other measures.

Instead of framing this as a Tory v. Labour issue, then, why doesn't Johnson offer to work with Labour more closely? Why has he always refused to? It doesn't even make any political sense, especially at the moment: all that is happening is that Johnson continues to take all of the blame for the failings.

[pixie374]

I don't think it's the fault of any particular government, certainly nobody can prove they would have done any better. An impossible situation really. I thought Boris would "ride into the rescue" over Brexit, but nobody was expecting this.
The biggest measures we seem to be ignoring are schools, colleges, universities.... our "lockdowns" are very lax with bubbles, and so on....
I still think we are going with the worst of both worlds with unnecessarily bankrupting some, while also unnecessarily risking others. But- an impossible balance.

[emmie]

as you say businesses going to the wall, heaven only knows what will happen when the unemployment figures come out

[ToraToraTora]

emmie; "heaven only knows what will happen when the unemployment figures come out " - the anti Government types will ignore the crisis and blame it on Boris.