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Should We Take This Warming Seriously?
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interesting that NZ is contemplating the possibility of permanent change to the old way of life - and a big majority of the public approve
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They are I imagine less stressed out about the whole thing, having been living a normal life, apart from foreign tourism, for more than a year, thanks to proper politicians. There have been reports in the Guardian that people are unhappy about slow rollout of vaccines; but any outbreaks are quickly traced and dealt with, and it must be more than a year since anyone died of Covid.
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They are I imagine less stressed out about the whole thing, having been living a normal life, apart from foreign tourism, for more than a year, thanks to proper politicians. There have been reports in the Guardian that people are unhappy about slow rollout of vaccines; but any outbreaks are quickly traced and dealt with, and it must be more than a year since anyone died of Covid.
//There is a middle path, which is to ensure as far as possible that social distancing and other preventative measures are in force. This wouldn't cripple businesses,…//
But it would, and it has and it is continuing to do so. The hospitality and tourism businesses – both large contributors to the UK economy – are both on their knees. Many hospitality outlets have been operating under “social distancing” measures since April (outside) and May (inside). Most of them are just about breaking even, many are not and some have given up trying. So-called “Freedom Day” next week will make very little difference to that because all the government has done is removed criminal sanctions for transgressions and instead passed the responsibility for compliance on to businesses. Most of them will comply with the “guidelines” so people will still need to wear face coverings in shops and on public transport, and will still need to “social distance” in hospitality venues. Local authorities will see to it that they do (under threat of licence removal) and they will retain their flower pots in the road and their ridiculous signs and stickers all over the streets. I don’t really know what the rest of the world is so concerned about.
//The health services would have been overwhelmed regardless,…//
The health service is overwhelmed. Just not with Covid patients, that’s all. If you think I’m exaggerating, try getting treatment for any other condition. The decision was taken early on that Covid would be prioritised above all other ailments. When that nice Mr Cummings was seeking revenge on the PM he published a white board with what seemed like the results of a “brainstorming” exercise. One of the questions was “Who shall we allow to die?” The answer was not published but it is now quite clear – anybody who hasn’t got Covid.
//Just for the record, wear a mask if you want, if not then dont,..//
Unless you’re on a TfL bus or train, dave. Then you must wear one or face being denied travel or thrown off.
So is “unlocking” (if that’s how the rest of the world interprets what’s going to happen next Monday) “unethical? I suppose it depends if you believe locking down was ethical in the first place.
But it would, and it has and it is continuing to do so. The hospitality and tourism businesses – both large contributors to the UK economy – are both on their knees. Many hospitality outlets have been operating under “social distancing” measures since April (outside) and May (inside). Most of them are just about breaking even, many are not and some have given up trying. So-called “Freedom Day” next week will make very little difference to that because all the government has done is removed criminal sanctions for transgressions and instead passed the responsibility for compliance on to businesses. Most of them will comply with the “guidelines” so people will still need to wear face coverings in shops and on public transport, and will still need to “social distance” in hospitality venues. Local authorities will see to it that they do (under threat of licence removal) and they will retain their flower pots in the road and their ridiculous signs and stickers all over the streets. I don’t really know what the rest of the world is so concerned about.
//The health services would have been overwhelmed regardless,…//
The health service is overwhelmed. Just not with Covid patients, that’s all. If you think I’m exaggerating, try getting treatment for any other condition. The decision was taken early on that Covid would be prioritised above all other ailments. When that nice Mr Cummings was seeking revenge on the PM he published a white board with what seemed like the results of a “brainstorming” exercise. One of the questions was “Who shall we allow to die?” The answer was not published but it is now quite clear – anybody who hasn’t got Covid.
//Just for the record, wear a mask if you want, if not then dont,..//
Unless you’re on a TfL bus or train, dave. Then you must wear one or face being denied travel or thrown off.
So is “unlocking” (if that’s how the rest of the world interprets what’s going to happen next Monday) “unethical? I suppose it depends if you believe locking down was ethical in the first place.
In the hopes of looking stupid at the end of the year, then:
Present death toll by standard measure: 128,642.
Expected total by 31/12, if deaths peak at 100 daily: around 140,000
Same date, at a 200 daily peak: c.150,000.
Since the Government is unlikely to impose measures unless the death toll much exceeds this, it's reasonable to expect deaths at these sustained levels, rather than a rapid and then rapidly-shrinking peak, which is part of the motivation for these estimates. The c.160,000 estimate would represent an *average* of 200 Covid deaths a day for the remainder of the year, rather than a *peak*.
Currently, the average is only around 40 a day, but a week ago it was only 25, and a week before that it was 18. At such small numbers it's a little difficult to predict trends reliably, but, still, that represents an approximate two-week doubling of Covid deaths. With no control measures in place, it's reasonable to expect such doubling to continue for at least another few weeks before slowing down, which leads to the scenarios I am describing above.
See also https:/
Present death toll by standard measure: 128,642.
Expected total by 31/12, if deaths peak at 100 daily: around 140,000
Same date, at a 200 daily peak: c.150,000.
Since the Government is unlikely to impose measures unless the death toll much exceeds this, it's reasonable to expect deaths at these sustained levels, rather than a rapid and then rapidly-shrinking peak, which is part of the motivation for these estimates. The c.160,000 estimate would represent an *average* of 200 Covid deaths a day for the remainder of the year, rather than a *peak*.
Currently, the average is only around 40 a day, but a week ago it was only 25, and a week before that it was 18. At such small numbers it's a little difficult to predict trends reliably, but, still, that represents an approximate two-week doubling of Covid deaths. With no control measures in place, it's reasonable to expect such doubling to continue for at least another few weeks before slowing down, which leads to the scenarios I am describing above.
See also https:/
Not too difficult when you have a population half that of Greater London in an area almost 200 times as large
indeed, then all you need is to not dither, act quickly rather than wait a few weeks, make use of the moat to limit comings and goings, and get a functioning tracing system in place. Had that happened, perhaps we could have spent the last year free rather than under Matt Hancock's thumb.
indeed, then all you need is to not dither, act quickly rather than wait a few weeks, make use of the moat to limit comings and goings, and get a functioning tracing system in place. Had that happened, perhaps we could have spent the last year free rather than under Matt Hancock's thumb.
With reference to jno's NZ link, the number of people surveyed isn't given and it's easy to forget it's only their opinion and not that of the whole of NZ. Such a lot of businesses had to close and a lot of people lost jobs (same as here) but that's never mentioned. As an aside does Jacinda Arden ever smile? I'll tell my son (NZ) about the survey and see what he says about it.
No, I'm not suggesting that. What I am saying is just because say 50% of the people who took the survey said they would prefer the new normal, doesn't mean that 50% or more of all New Zealanders felt the same way. There is no chance of me urging my son to come back here, not because I wouldn't love him to, but because despite the struggles they are having at the moment they still have a better life there than they would ever have in this country.
cashier, all professional polling organisations go to great lengths to choose a representaative sample of whoever they're supposed to be polling. There's some information about it here - from America, but reputable companies in all countries do it the same way, because getting inaccurate results is a waste of time and money
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My concern is not for the spread within uk (we have majority vaxed and also an excellent health care system).
My concern is that we are selfishly allowing it to be spread to other parts of the world where they have low vac and a very poor healthcare system.
All this desp wanting their hols abroad are, in my opinion, selfish.
Yes I think uk lockdown should end. No I don’t think we ought to be risking spreading to other countries
My concern is that we are selfishly allowing it to be spread to other parts of the world where they have low vac and a very poor healthcare system.
All this desp wanting their hols abroad are, in my opinion, selfish.
Yes I think uk lockdown should end. No I don’t think we ought to be risking spreading to other countries
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