The thing about the third option is that it's very difficult to estimate, but the chances of not catching Covid at all are certainly much reduced given that most countries with vaccination programs have relaxed restrictions. Based on the assumption that 0.5% of Covid cases end in fatality, we can assume that around half of the UK has had Covid at one point or another, although it should be stressed that this is only a ballpark figure.
Where the data *is* available is on the risks due to vaccines (extremely low) and due to Covid (low, but significantly higher). There are times, and this is one of them, when paying too much heed to the inevitable uncertainty only serves to muddy the waters. There's nothing misleading, then, in saying that the far lesser risk, and far greater benefit, is in being vaccinated. It helps yourself, it helps others around you, and it's the country's -- and the world's -- way out of this mess.