Andy-h: // The committee is going to have to satisfy itself that Mr Johnson deliberately misled the House... it remains impossible to do so with any semblance of proof, whatever its measure. ... 'the balance of probability' is reached by an opinion only, ...
That makes the committee nothing more than a kangaroo court //
It's important to point out that this is wrong.
Firstly, as already stressed, the Privileges Committee isn't required to satisfy itself to any strict legal standard, be that "beyond reasonable doubt", or "on the balance of probability", although it would presumably be in their interests to demonstrate that they did meet at least the second test.
Secondly, this characterisation as a Kangaroo Court is obviously in Johnson's interest: you might have seen in his oral statements that he said that he would judge the committee impartial if it cleared him, and was ambiguous on what conclusions it would reach if it found that he had "wittingly misled the House". But an impartial committee is entitled to reach whatever conclusions are reasonably consistent with the evidence, not the conclusion that favours Johnson.
Thirdly, earlier you've said that the judgement can in effect only be based on whether or not Johnson himself knew that he was lying; that what matters is in his heart or mind. This is also not true. Although, as I've said already (as did others), this isn't a legal court, the relevant test would be one of reasonable belief. It's not enough that the belief is genuinely held: would *somebody else*, themselves of sound mind, be reasonably able to reach that same belief?
That's why a lot of the discussion in the session on Wednesday focused on whether Johnson had adequately consulted his advisors before stating that he had been "reassured"; that's why Johnson continually referred to the multiple leaving drinks events as "essential for work purposes"; and that's also why there was focus on whether the events which breached the "two metres" social distancing restrictions in the guidance had instead met the "one metre with mitigating measures" alternative.
Each of these questions, at least partly, is subject to an objective test:
1a. Asking other special advisors may not be enough reassurance when they themselves would hardly wish to self-incriminate, if you also had open to you the option of asking for detailed legal advice from an impartial lawyer;
1b. Further, the statement given to the house was that Johnson had been "reassured that the rules and guidance were followed at all times". However, Johnson has conceded that, prior to saying this, one of his advisors, Martin Reynolds (his then-PPS), specifically did *not* say that the guidance had been followed "at all times", and indeed advised Johnson not to say as much in that exact wording.
2. Describing events that were about morale, rather than productivity, as "essential for work purposes" is problematic when you consider that most social events, which would also improve morale, were banned under the guidance. Although Johnson stated in oral questions that he would have suggested, in one of the regular Covid conferences, these were permissible under the guidance if asked about it at the time, he did not in fact do so. Instead, argmost people at the time will have understood that retirement-centred social events did not fit the spirit of the guidance.
3. The mitigations were clearly understood to be measures to replace social distancing, such as screens or masks or the like. On one occasion these screens were referred to, but notably that they were in the adjacent room to where the event was taking place.
All of this means that it is surely open to the Committee to find that, while Johnson may well have sincerely believed that he was telling the truth, he was also wrong to do so, and in particular that it would be unreasonable to have done so.