I finally finished reading through the full judgment (again, linked below):
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/AAA-v-SSHD-judgment-290623.pdf
It's a lot. And I won't pretend to have been able to follow all of it. I won't say much about what I thought of the arguments, because in any case they are well above my pay grade. But I would like to make a few points.
1. I really think it's important to stress just how narrow the terms of the Government's defeat are. I know it gets lost in the sense that, say, a 2-1 loss and a 36-0 loss give you the same number of points in a football match, but the Court has really not handed out a thumping rejection of the Government's case.
2. It's not just that one judge ruled in the Government's favour. It's also that there were *multiple* grounds of appeal sought. Depending somewhat on how you count, there are a good dozen or so. Three examples of grounds on which the Government won are:
i. Whether it is lawful to send potential asylum seekers to a safe third country without having heard their case at all (Government says yes; all judges agree).
ii. Whether it is lawful for the Home Secretary to [have attempted to] certify Rwanda as a safe third country in individual cases without having to consult Parliament (Government says yes; all judges agree).
iii. Whether certain aspects of EU law had been retained, which if so would have rendered the agreement unlawful (Government says no; all judges agree).
There are a few more (and for those who are curious, the ones I've identified above correspond to Issues 12,14, and 13). In this sense, then, it's hardly a crushing defeat, and the implication of victory on (i) and (ii) above is that the Courts entirely agree that the Government has a broad licence to at least pursue such policies.
3. It's also worth emphasising what is agreed upon that *wasn't* up for appeal, including:
i. Whether the Courts should be looking at this question at all (all parties agree that yes, they should).
ii. Whether it's important to respect everybody's Article 3 ECHR right to freedom from torture, etc. (yes, it is).
iii. Whether Article 3 is breached by sending people to an unsafe third country (yes, it is).
iv. Whether it was therefore important for the Government to ensure that Rwanda is a "safe third country" (yes, it is).
v. Whether, given Rwanda's recent history and approach to past asylum cases, it was therefore necessary for the Government to obtain particular assurances that they would improve (yes, it was, and that is why the Government did so.)
4. This basically means that the only real source of contention is whether the assurances Rwanda provided as part of this agreement were sufficient, according to a legal test (see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soering_v_United_Kingdom ) that all parties agree is the correct and appropriate one. (There are a few other more technical points of disagreement, but they all broadly relate to this point.)
* * * *
It really is quite narrow, in spite of the huge length of the judgment (almost 160 pages and 525 paragraphs). With that in mind, and particularly with the 2-1 split decision in this Court, I confess I would at least not be surprised if the Government were to succeed on appeal to the Supreme Court.
Time alone will tell. But, in spite of some of the rhetoric surrounding this case, it represents the system working.