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“I think it’s a bit naive to say this means nothing for the war. It’s a clear signal from Putin (in a rather Game of Thrones way) that he can’t be ‘taken out’, not even by the most badass of badasses.”
I don’t see any immediate effect on the war in Ukraine, insofar as it’s possible to predict anything inside the Kremlin enigma. Wagner were no longer fighting in Ukraine and the Kremlin has been trying to integrate them in the main army. There are of course other “private armies” fighting in Ukraine but it’s unclear what if any effect this would have on them.
More interesting is what effect it will have in Africa.
Some expressed surprise that Prigozhin wasn’t taken out earlier, wasn’t put on trial, or killed less dramatically.
But Putin it seems is never in a hurry to exact revenge: it took years for him to catch up with Litvinenko, Skripal, possibly Berezovsky and who knows who else. It’s also possible he was unsure what to do at first. The last thing he’d have wanted was a trial. It’s not normally how gangsters operate.
This would have needed a little planning and the very public and dramatic nature of it would indeed be intended as a warning. Tho it may also act as a provocation the way things are just now. Putin and his people are seen as the architects of what has turned into a disastrous war for Russia, and for that reason their position cannot be seen as secure even now.