Quizzes & Puzzles5 mins ago
1 in 6 people would not sit next to a muslim on hte tube
Is this understandable ( I think it is, and 1 in 6 is a low estimate). If you look at it this way.....
If every tube train had one red chair on it, now there is a 1 in a million chance that that chair will blow up (i.e. there is a counter on the chair when the millionth person sits on it, it blows up) If this was a real situation then nobody would ever sit on the red chair on the train, because although its a slim risk its still a risk. Right so there have been over 30 individual susessful or unsucessful attempts of suside bommings on the tube and there are not 30 million muslims in the uk, so the risk that one of them will blow themselves up is greater than 1 in a million, so is it not understandable how people feel?
If every tube train had one red chair on it, now there is a 1 in a million chance that that chair will blow up (i.e. there is a counter on the chair when the millionth person sits on it, it blows up) If this was a real situation then nobody would ever sit on the red chair on the train, because although its a slim risk its still a risk. Right so there have been over 30 individual susessful or unsucessful attempts of suside bommings on the tube and there are not 30 million muslims in the uk, so the risk that one of them will blow themselves up is greater than 1 in a million, so is it not understandable how people feel?
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Booldawg
I'll be completely honest with you here...I used to live on the Aylesbury Estate in South London. It is a rough estate and I used to regularly get home (on a Friday night) after a few jars and NEVER encounter any problems with muggers.
I recounted this to my younger sister, saying, "It's amazing that I used to be able to walk under the underpass and no-one would ever think ogf robbing me".
To which she responded..."That's be cause you LOOK like a mugger you dope".
Nice.
I'll be completely honest with you here...I used to live on the Aylesbury Estate in South London. It is a rough estate and I used to regularly get home (on a Friday night) after a few jars and NEVER encounter any problems with muggers.
I recounted this to my younger sister, saying, "It's amazing that I used to be able to walk under the underpass and no-one would ever think ogf robbing me".
To which she responded..."That's be cause you LOOK like a mugger you dope".
Nice.
I think the implication was that you couldn't assume that one person made just one journey in a day, and therefore the figures were wrong, Sp.
However, even if you decided to work on a basis that (e.g.) every person who uses the tube makes ten journeys a day (and I imagine few would argue that the average is anything like as high) and work the figures out on that basis, the odds remain ridiculously small, and a rational person wouldn't still act upon them.
At the unrealistic 1 person=10 daily journeys, you're still more likely to die falling out of your bed than through an act of terrorism on the tube, albeit only slightly. Who is scared of getting out of their bed?
Perception of probability is absolutely subjective (though probability itself is not, which I think was what Sp was pointing out) and surely why so many people are using comparisons with more mundane forms of death to show how illogical acting on this reported fear really is.
However, even if you decided to work on a basis that (e.g.) every person who uses the tube makes ten journeys a day (and I imagine few would argue that the average is anything like as high) and work the figures out on that basis, the odds remain ridiculously small, and a rational person wouldn't still act upon them.
At the unrealistic 1 person=10 daily journeys, you're still more likely to die falling out of your bed than through an act of terrorism on the tube, albeit only slightly. Who is scared of getting out of their bed?
Perception of probability is absolutely subjective (though probability itself is not, which I think was what Sp was pointing out) and surely why so many people are using comparisons with more mundane forms of death to show how illogical acting on this reported fear really is.
Okay...two answer here...first to Waldo...
The reason I agree with your first set of figures is because (bear with me, my skills in maths are as sound as your average supermodel), each tube journey by each person is a specific event. If one person takes a hundred journeys, then each journey should be regarded as a 'chance' to meet a probable event - that being a 'bomber'.
Second question - to admarlow - yes, I'm afraid that even though I live with my partner in a nice house and I listen to Madonna and Kylie and drink Smrinoff Ices...even I have to admit, if I saw me alking towards me at 02:00am, I would be concerned.
Says more about me (and my sister, who's fat - ha) than society.
The reason I agree with your first set of figures is because (bear with me, my skills in maths are as sound as your average supermodel), each tube journey by each person is a specific event. If one person takes a hundred journeys, then each journey should be regarded as a 'chance' to meet a probable event - that being a 'bomber'.
Second question - to admarlow - yes, I'm afraid that even though I live with my partner in a nice house and I listen to Madonna and Kylie and drink Smrinoff Ices...even I have to admit, if I saw me alking towards me at 02:00am, I would be concerned.
Says more about me (and my sister, who's fat - ha) than society.
Probability itself is subjective really: either all probabilities are just our perceptions or none of them is. We can't impose our beliefs on others. Some may perceive the probability of attacks to be uniformly distributed over each day, but for others - myself included - the things we see on each day will affect our view of the likelihood that there will be an attack that day.
Taking the coin example, those who believe the coin is fair could argue that the 1001th flip will still be equally likely to result in heads or tails, but after 1000 heads it's also perfectly rational to argue that there might be some underlying reason why the coin keeps coming up heads.
Taking the coin example, those who believe the coin is fair could argue that the 1001th flip will still be equally likely to result in heads or tails, but after 1000 heads it's also perfectly rational to argue that there might be some underlying reason why the coin keeps coming up heads.
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