Breakup of government

[rov1200]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8080777 .stm

With an imminent reshuffle and probably knowing her fate has resigned from the cabinet. Jacky Smith has also resigned. Does that mean we are like to see Darling and Hoon fall on their swords in the next few days?

[Gromit]

The rats are jumping before they are pushed. Darling will go. The Guardian's leader today is calling for Labour to ditch Brown.

Labour has a year left before an election; its current leader would waste it. It is time to cut him loose.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/j un/02/editorial-gordon-brown-labour

If the Local and European eelctions go very badly, then the Labour MPs will give Brown the heave-o in an attempt to save their own skin.

[R1Geezer]

Maybe but Hoon and/or Darling may well conclude that Brown needs them somewhere in the cabinet so may well stay on, as for Brown himself, I think that at this stage the only way anyone would want the job is for a short term historical accolade as they know they are going to get their ar5es kicked next election, the next proper leader will be someone like Milliband who is staying right out of it!. I still think Brown will stay as even the ring twitchers on the back bench will feel that someone like Harman would be even worse. The only other way is if Brown himself decide he�s had enough.

[jno]

Blears is going too. But Darling is likely to stay and be given another job. His offence seems relatively minor and may have been a genuine error, though not the sort of error a chancellor should be making ('Golly, there's �700 in my pocket, I wonder where that came from?'). The real problem is going to be replacing all these people. No wonder peers are having to do some of them.

Cameron will have similar problems, but he can always fill slots with his Eton chums. Good to see that after a few generations (since Heath) of ordinary people, the Tories will be reverting to public-schoolboy cabinets.

[LazyGun]

The BBC and various commentators seem to be working themselves up into a froth of expectation over the resignation of Smith and Blears, forseeing all sorts of machiavellian manouvering in their actions - I think it is far simpler and Gromit has the right of it.. both Smith and Blears knew fine well that they were going to lose their position in the reshuffle, knew they wouldn't be offered another, and so elected to jump before they were pushed.

Hoon and Darling are different in that they may well feel they still have a place in the cabinet and so will wait and see.
I can't see an internal leadership contest even in the worst of all possible meltdowns for labour that may happen in the european and local elections - Once maybe back in 2005 when Brown got in, but I dont think they could do it twice without going to the country.
Brown will do his level best to hang on I think until the latest possible date, hoping that the economy will recover and that the expenses scandal will go away.
The oppostion have a day to table motions next week, and I think Plaid Cymru and SNP(?) are both tabling a motion to dissolve parliament, but I doubt they will get sufficient labour mps onboard to get the motion to pass.

[Rollo]

Labour backbenchers are soon going to move into "self preservation" mode, if they are not there already. If enough of them think that they have a better chance of hanging onto their seat with a new leader, then Brown will be toast!

[LazyGun]

Maybe Rollo - but even the most politically insensitive, out of touch Labour MP must surely recognise that a leadership contest /installation of a new leader will do nothing to improve the fortunes of Labour come the next general election. In fact, I would suggest that it can only further the harm.
If they wish to survive the next election, whenever it may be called, they would do well to eat some humble pie and attempt to reconnect with their own constituents.

How many disenchanted voters on AB, Labour or otherwise, would decide to vote for Labour after all come the next election purely because they ditched Brown as Leader?

[youngmafbog]

But Laxy, humble and arrogant Brown does not go together.

Boy I'm loving these lefties turnign on each other

[rov1200]

Someonone suggested on TV tonight that Brown has a hangup when dealing with women members of his cabinet. The facts also point this out as all the recent resignations have been women. Although it must be very stormy in that cabinet room the saying by Brown a few days ago that he will no longer tolerate a 'Gentlemans Club' it seems coming home to roost.