Lib/Lab pact - Brown to stand down?

[Gromit]

Looks like Labour have got a trouncing, but the Tories haven't reached the finish line. So we have a hung parliament, and it is unlikely that the Lib Dems can work with the Tories.

So Brown must stand down, and Clegg can work with a new Labour leader.

If the Tories don't get power, will they lurch to the right again and is Cameron safe?

[New Judge]

Constitutionally it's not quite that simple, and we only have three results and an exit poll at present (00:48am) not a hung parliament.

[Gromit]

The DUP/Tory, Peter Robinson has lost in Belfast. So much for the £200 million bribe.

[jno]

Well, I don't know - I think that though their policies are closer to Labour's (often further left than Labour's in fact), the LibDems will be perfectly happy to ally with Cameron. They've done itoften enough at local level, and they could, with some justice, say that they are backing the same party the majority of voters supported. But it would partly depend who made them the best offer.

I'm not too sure the electorate would stand for a PM who hadn't even been leading his party before the election, though. The (presumed) result indicates they've had enough of Brown, but there's really no mandate at all for Premier Miliband.

Anyway, it may not happen. Cameron may prove to have purchased the support of sufficient Ulster MPs to form a government.

[jno]

oh, I didn't see the Robinson result. But that may have related to personal factors.

[Gromit]

// Constitutionally it's not quite that simple. //

Yes it is. It is a first past the post system, if no one party passes the 326 finish line, then any alliances are possible and acceptable.

[BertiWooster]

It may well be that that tories will get that majority .

The reason is that the two seats that have been declared , although safe labour seats , the % swing in votes to the conservaties has been high .

If this % swing is repeated nationally then the marginal seats where labour are in power and even where they are not so marginal ; will turn blue

[olddutch]

If Labour and the Lib Dems together can achieve a combined overall majority then Clegg and new Labour leader should form a coalition on the understanding that a referendum on electoral reform would take place in first 6 months of office

[Gromit]

Another bad result for Ulster Unionists/Tory in NI. Lady Hermon has won in North Down as an Independent from UU.

[Oneeyedvic]

///Yes it is. It is a first past the post system, if no one party passes the 326 finish line, then any alliances are possible and acceptable.///

No, the first attempt at alliance will be done by the sitting PM (ie Brown).

Anyway from BBC website:

David Miliband is very clear that any Lib Dem call for Gordon Brown to step down as prime minister is not a condition the Labour Party should accept, the BBC's Bridget Kendall reports. In other words, she says, Mr Miliband does not seem to be putting forward himself as an alternative, nor as someone to be directly engaged in any Lib Dem talks. He says he intends to spend the weekend up here in his constituency with his family. Our correspondent also says she got a sense also that he suspects he may not be foreign secretary much longer.

[R1Geezer]

Clegg would sell his Granny to the white slave trade for a ministry. Neither LAB nor CON will ever offer PR. LIB/LAB an only work if the 2 of them together have a majority currently that is not the case. I predict a LIB/CON deal with Clegg getting a top job and couple of junior ministerships

[modeller]

Electoral Reform does not mean PR. Pure PR would result in hundreds of parties for the simple reason we all have different opinions. Therefore some form of Alternative Vote would have to be adopted and there are many varieties to chose from . See the Electoral Reform web site for pros and cons. What is clear they can all be manipulated by the voters . There isn't a perfect system whatever the idealists believe.

[jake-the-peg]

A Lib/Con deal Geezer?

Really - what about the Tory policies on Europe?

Clegg know this is his parties best chance since Lloyd George - do you really think he'd sell himself *that* short?

It's anybody's guess now - think it depends if some Lib-lab pact can be done possibly with Brown stepping down "on health grounds".

Otherwise Cameron might try a minority Government

But with the Lib dems not doing as well in the polls we're definately in the worst of all possible worlds in terms of getting a stable government.

I give it 8 months to the next election

[R1Geezer]

all the issues are as nothing compared to the allure of power. If Cameron offers Clegg the home office for example he'll tear his arm off at the elbow. If there is a LIB/LAB pact then they barely have enough combined to stop the Tories wrecking the whole thing in the first 5 minutes. The Tories may have to lure a few "Others" with various baubles and they can wreck the whole show.

[jake-the-peg]

That's the point

Such a deal has no power - Clegg won't take it if he's just carrying out Cameron's policies

[jno]

just so's you understand that we'll be providing the baubles, Geezer. Easy on the cuts in Ulster? Tougher on the cuts for you and me.

[R1Geezer]

it's worth a few quid to get this disasterous government out.

[jno]

you moaned enough when Labour, or MPs generally, put their hand in your pocket - but it's okay when the Tories do it? A man of principle!

[R1Geezer]

don't be a numpty jno, the whole picture is up in th air, 200m is a drop in the ocean, he can sack a few 5 a day coordinators for that. Our public sector is huge, I think we all know that cuts are comming across the board, no doubt tax rises too, regardless. I'd rather cede a small amount than a large amount. PR would be the end, back to the stone age.