History teaches us that the big problem with peasant armies is that as soon as things appear to be going badly, they disperse.
Afghanistan is a tribal country with a tribal culture, one of the many issues is to instil an idea of esprit de corps, a national identity and above all else a national idea.
On all three counts we appear to be failing, this is a political failure in it's lack of comprehension of the Afghan makeup and the lack of political courage to reiterate (and mean) that when we told the Afghans that "we're here for the long run" we meant it, that when the Taliban said we didn't possess the the guts to defeat them, they were wrong.
Of all political posturing and hoo ha, of all the hand wringing and back slapping the politicians can muster, for all the relief that will be expressed at our withdrawal, one statement will be missing amidst the pomp and ceremony.
AFGHANISTAN IS AT PEACE, therein lies failure, therein lies defeat.
And before the dust settles as we congartulate ourselves of extricating ourselves out of the mess we helped make, try comprehend one thing the consequences of our intervention.
The U.S is going to sponsor a new Islamic nation (Kosovo) to try boost it's Meccarist credentials, it will continue to ignore the U.N charter and we'll undergo a form of collective amnesia, think everything is back like it was before, and act all surprised when it all blows up again.
My money's on Kurdistan.