ChatterBank15 mins ago
Cv-19. Oldham, Bolton.......................
23 Answers
...........Blackburn, Leicester, Bradford are all setting the example of how to deal with Coronavirus - just get on with it as normal. Death rates in these areas are no worse than anywhere else. This is for Oldham.
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The govts' scare tactics have shifted in recent weeks. We were constantly told how many people had died, but that seems futile when the number of deaths is dropping all the time, so they switch the "info" to the number of infections! That's better! Thousands of infections sounds far worse than a handful deaths! That should frighten everybody! What those areas above are doing is what we will all be doing soon enough - learning to live with it.
But what has been learned so far? The trend would seem to indicate that we are heading for "herd immunity", ie a lot fewer deaths but more infections. The chap next door but one to me went into hospital in late March for a triple heart bypass. If anyone was at risk, he was. He had his op and two days into recovery, tested positive for CV-19. He was sent home after 10 days and told to self-isolate. Brilliant! What else would he do just days after a triple heart by pass? Anyway, he has now recovered from CV-19 and goes for short walks. How many of these "celebreties" have recovered after testing positive? Remember Djokovic months ago? He played in the US Open this week. What about all these footballers we keep hearing about who've tested positive? They all seeem to have recovered don't they? It's herd immunity folks!
I've no doubt that all the Johnson sychophants on here will want things to carry on. "yes Mr. Johnson", "no Mr.johnson", "absolutely Mr. Johnson", "definitely, Mr Johnson" "oh, certainly Mr. Johnson". :o)
Johnson has done more harm to the economy of this country in six months than six years of WW2 did. But we'll carry on anyway. Churchill would have, wouldn't he? Keep Calm And Carry On Scaremongering!
https:/
The govts' scare tactics have shifted in recent weeks. We were constantly told how many people had died, but that seems futile when the number of deaths is dropping all the time, so they switch the "info" to the number of infections! That's better! Thousands of infections sounds far worse than a handful deaths! That should frighten everybody! What those areas above are doing is what we will all be doing soon enough - learning to live with it.
But what has been learned so far? The trend would seem to indicate that we are heading for "herd immunity", ie a lot fewer deaths but more infections. The chap next door but one to me went into hospital in late March for a triple heart bypass. If anyone was at risk, he was. He had his op and two days into recovery, tested positive for CV-19. He was sent home after 10 days and told to self-isolate. Brilliant! What else would he do just days after a triple heart by pass? Anyway, he has now recovered from CV-19 and goes for short walks. How many of these "celebreties" have recovered after testing positive? Remember Djokovic months ago? He played in the US Open this week. What about all these footballers we keep hearing about who've tested positive? They all seeem to have recovered don't they? It's herd immunity folks!
I've no doubt that all the Johnson sychophants on here will want things to carry on. "yes Mr. Johnson", "no Mr.johnson", "absolutely Mr. Johnson", "definitely, Mr Johnson" "oh, certainly Mr. Johnson". :o)
Johnson has done more harm to the economy of this country in six months than six years of WW2 did. But we'll carry on anyway. Churchill would have, wouldn't he? Keep Calm And Carry On Scaremongering!
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You haven't seen the hospital admissions and deaths data in Spain and France, or Belgium. The first two have started to pick up to concerning levels because they didn't react a month or two ago. Belgium did the sort of thing we're doing and saw a downtick in infections.
But you carry on regardless. Of course you will never be proved right or wrong if the action is effective. If deaths stay low because of the tightening you'll say all this was uneccessary. And if deaths do go up you'll say restrictions have failed so what's the point, even though you don't really know what the rate would have been.
You just haven't grasped it, but I hope you are lucky and don't catch anything in your area from another disbeliever
But you carry on regardless. Of course you will never be proved right or wrong if the action is effective. If deaths stay low because of the tightening you'll say all this was uneccessary. And if deaths do go up you'll say restrictions have failed so what's the point, even though you don't really know what the rate would have been.
You just haven't grasped it, but I hope you are lucky and don't catch anything in your area from another disbeliever
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Oh and around a million people (at least that's how many we know of, probably double that when some countries give proper data), didn't shake it off in the way Djokovic did., so it's not much consolation to the bereaved.
You just gotta love this website
Oh and around a million people (at least that's how many we know of, probably double that when some countries give proper data), didn't shake it off in the way Djokovic did., so it's not much consolation to the bereaved.
You just gotta love this website
Own goal by 10CS though as the figures show the deaths rate was high in Oldham.
I assume he just saw that most areas were shaded a similar colour on the first chart.
But if you click on each area you can see the figures. Look at April for example and see Oldham is 91 deaths per 100000 in April, then click on other areas at random and you'll see how much higher Oldham is than most
I assume he just saw that most areas were shaded a similar colour on the first chart.
But if you click on each area you can see the figures. Look at April for example and see Oldham is 91 deaths per 100000 in April, then click on other areas at random and you'll see how much higher Oldham is than most
Latest Covid19 cases and deaths in Oldham.
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// The trend would seem to indicate that we are heading for "herd immunity", ie a lot fewer deaths but more infections. //
I think there is an agreement between eds not to print complete crap - herd immun ity is "so many are immune that the chain is broken". For this disease it is estimated to be 60% ( because it is a function of Ro here 1.4 to 2 ). Currently we are at 5% - miles away
lots of people have it and not many are dead is true BUT unrelated. This trend was discerned just before lock down - so is NOT due to lock down or other measures
has been seen in other countries
and the doctors have no idea why it is occurring.
I think there is an agreement between eds not to print complete crap - herd immun ity is "so many are immune that the chain is broken". For this disease it is estimated to be 60% ( because it is a function of Ro here 1.4 to 2 ). Currently we are at 5% - miles away
lots of people have it and not many are dead is true BUT unrelated. This trend was discerned just before lock down - so is NOT due to lock down or other measures
has been seen in other countries
and the doctors have no idea why it is occurring.
PP.
"Herd immun ity is "so many are immune that the chain is broken". For this disease it is estimated to be 60% ( because it is a function of Ro here 1.4 to 2 ). Currently we are at 5% - miles away"
I would suggest that the above factually correct maybe, although I don't understand it or how you know that only 5% ofthe population is at the moment immune when tests and trace is a shambles ( i would have guessed more like 50%).
That is a scientific definition which I don't fully understand, but I accept. I would also estimate that 95% of the population including ABers and myself also do not understand that concept either.
For the sake of singing from the same hymnsheet, the majority,the vast majority of the populace and ABers consider a definition of herd immunity to be the survival of the fittest at the expense of the weeker.
In simpler terms the attitude of the young to the danger of the old.
You are an academic and like many academics have difficulty in relating to the masses and as such had you been medically qualified you might have struggled and idont meant that in a derogatory way.
"Herd immun ity is "so many are immune that the chain is broken". For this disease it is estimated to be 60% ( because it is a function of Ro here 1.4 to 2 ). Currently we are at 5% - miles away"
I would suggest that the above factually correct maybe, although I don't understand it or how you know that only 5% ofthe population is at the moment immune when tests and trace is a shambles ( i would have guessed more like 50%).
That is a scientific definition which I don't fully understand, but I accept. I would also estimate that 95% of the population including ABers and myself also do not understand that concept either.
For the sake of singing from the same hymnsheet, the majority,the vast majority of the populace and ABers consider a definition of herd immunity to be the survival of the fittest at the expense of the weeker.
In simpler terms the attitude of the young to the danger of the old.
You are an academic and like many academics have difficulty in relating to the masses and as such had you been medically qualified you might have struggled and idont meant that in a derogatory way.
Hi sqad- my understanding is that the infection rate is assessed from the pillar 4 testing programme
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A few ABers have posted on here about having been asked to participate in this
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A few ABers have posted on here about having been asked to participate in this
Pillar 4: Surveillance testing – antibody serology and antigen swab testing for national surveillance supported by PHE, ONS, Biobank, universities and other partners to learn more about the prevalence and spread of the virus and for other testing research purposes, for example on the accuracy and ease of use of home testing
Not much good at maths, but can understand the stats. etc. quoted. I (possibly for the 1st time) agree with 10ClarionSt. We simply cannot carry on like this. OH and I are in the 'vulnerable' group - all we want is for everyone else to get on with living. It's bad enough as it is and the thought of what the medical services will be like after another 6 months is appalling.
We've had a lot of practice at staying alive. Give us the facts for each area and we'll look after ourselves. Otherwise, please get on with it! Pretty please x
We've had a lot of practice at staying alive. Give us the facts for each area and we'll look after ourselves. Otherwise, please get on with it! Pretty please x
I know Chris Whitty mentioned it as being definitely single figures, although that was 6-8 weeks ago so it may have gone up. Hopefully jim360 can help.
There are now figures published about weekly infections per 100000.
i think 20 is the alert threshold. Bolton is now at over 120 per 100000. That's 0.12% at any one time.
Jim will know the maths better than I do but if you know how long some is infected for- 14 days?- and how long we've had Covid you can estimate how many have had it. Not sure how dead ones are counted though.
Anyway, it can't be anything like 50% overall as the snapshot figures would be far higher than 0.12%
There are now figures published about weekly infections per 100000.
i think 20 is the alert threshold. Bolton is now at over 120 per 100000. That's 0.12% at any one time.
Jim will know the maths better than I do but if you know how long some is infected for- 14 days?- and how long we've had Covid you can estimate how many have had it. Not sure how dead ones are counted though.
Anyway, it can't be anything like 50% overall as the snapshot figures would be far higher than 0.12%
Here you go sqad.
Around 6.5% based on study of 200000 people up to end of June.
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A lot more tests will have been done since then. I'm pretty sure it's nearer 10% now
Around 6.5% based on study of 200000 people up to end of June.
https:/
A lot more tests will have been done since then. I'm pretty sure it's nearer 10% now
Still looks to be under 10%. This again indicates 6-7% , but it varies by region. I note the percentages apply to people over 16 only.
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Anyway we are nowhere near herd immunity.
Hopefully jim can provide a clearer picture than I can
https:/
Anyway we are nowhere near herd immunity.
Hopefully jim can provide a clearer picture than I can
Thanks FF it seems to vary between 5 % and 20% depending upon which group that you are quoting nowhere near th 5o% suggested by sqad .
I find it staggering that with overv40,000 deaths in the UK that there is that small percentage with antibodies.
I still feel that the scientific idea of herd immunity is different from that of the man in the street.
I find it staggering that with overv40,000 deaths in the UK that there is that small percentage with antibodies.
I still feel that the scientific idea of herd immunity is different from that of the man in the street.
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