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The Cheltenham Festival 2021
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It will no doubt be strange viewing this year with no crowds being allowed through the gates, but ITV are to include a recording of the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' when the tapes go up for the first race. They have not yet decided whether this will continue throughout the Festival. In my most humble of opinions, i believe they should - it would certainly add to the atmosphere. What say you, fellow punters?
I have been perusing the stats for the opening race, the Supreme Novices, and while the form lines would suggest either Appreciate It (5/4) or Metier (9/2) should win, there are a couple of strong stats that threaten to put me off both. Favourites have won 4 of the last 20 runnings - and none of those was under 3/1 - and horses who began their careers on the flat account for only four placed runs in the last 13 years.
Another strong stat is that only one winner from the last 10 years did not win last time out.
I'm leaning toward the JonJo trained Soaring Glory @ around the 6/1 mark.
I have been perusing the stats for the opening race, the Supreme Novices, and while the form lines would suggest either Appreciate It (5/4) or Metier (9/2) should win, there are a couple of strong stats that threaten to put me off both. Favourites have won 4 of the last 20 runnings - and none of those was under 3/1 - and horses who began their careers on the flat account for only four placed runs in the last 13 years.
Another strong stat is that only one winner from the last 10 years did not win last time out.
I'm leaning toward the JonJo trained Soaring Glory @ around the 6/1 mark.
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With the absence of the Willie Mullins trained Energumene, this looks a shoe-in for Nicky Henderson's Shishkin (1/2). Between them, Mullins and Henderson have carved this race up with 7 winners (4 & 3) from the last 9 runnings and 6 of those 7 were odds on jollies. Energumene would have pushed Shishkin for favouritism but Mullins now relies on Franco De Port @ 10/1.
The 3rd race on the card is a 16 runner handicap in which the current fav, Happygolucky, ticks quite a few of the trends boxes. 15 of the 20 winners since the turn of the century came from the first 5 in the betting, but only 2 favourites have won since 1977. Previous decent Festival form is a definite plus but is not essential; ditto last time out wins.
At the moment, my idea of the winner is Aye Right @ 6/1 2nd fav, but i am also looking to have a little e.w. bet on Nietzsche @ around 28/1.
At the moment, my idea of the winner is Aye Right @ 6/1 2nd fav, but i am also looking to have a little e.w. bet on Nietzsche @ around 28/1.
The main stats for the Champion Hurdle possibly point to a shoot-out between Honeysuckle and Epatante. When Nicky Henderson isn't winning this race (he has done so 5 times since 2009), the Irish have done so - with just the one exception (2012) when Paul Nicholl's saddled the winner. JP McManus has owned 9 winners of the Champion Hurdle. Both Epatante and Honeysuckle get the mares allowance and, i am siding with the JP owned Epatante from the Seven Barrows stable @ 4/1
Get your 'lucky' pin out for the 5th race on the card; since 2012, winners have been returned at 3x 33/1, 2 x 25/1 and 1 x 40/1! To help you direct your pin in the right direction, here are a couple of stats; of the last 15 winners, only 2 had not run within 37 days of the Festival, French bred and French imports do quite well in this race - 33 of the last win and placed horses were French bred, including the 1-2-3-4 in 2016. Willie Mullins has managed just the one placed horse from his 14 participants.
My pin is hovering over a 33/1 shot, Balko Saint.
My pin is hovering over a 33/1 shot, Balko Saint.
The last race on the card is the first to suffer from the Covid effect as amateurs are not allowed to compete; and that may well throw a spanner in the works of the stats. In fact, this race has had more face-lifts than Joan Collins so the stats are ever-changing and this is one of few Festival races where i am relying more on gut-instinct.
My very tentative selection is Remastered @ 8/1.
That's Day 1 sorted, then ;-)))
My very tentative selection is Remastered @ 8/1.
That's Day 1 sorted, then ;-)))
Hi Ken not gone awol. Been out for a long walk and then done a bit of tidying out back after the stormy weekend. I had a look at the card for day 1 myself, before all that, and saw that the Skeltons had pitched up at Stafford today. I did a little punt on their 4 runners and picked up just short of 40 quid for my pains Haha 2 winners and 2 places With a win single on the 8/1 winner. Also picked a horse provisionally in all the races and put the ITV7 on. Will wait for the N/Rs before doing a bet but the ITV7 is easy to put a sub in. Picked these for Cheltenham and put Guetapan Collonges at Sedgefield(why would they do that) in the ITV7. Beautiful evening up here and let's hope it stays like that.
1.20 Soaring Glory
1.55 Allmankind
2.30 Alnadam
3.05 Goshen
3.40 Dame De Compagnie
4.15 Riviere D'etel
4 50 Next Destination
1.20 Soaring Glory
1.55 Allmankind
2.30 Alnadam
3.05 Goshen
3.40 Dame De Compagnie
4.15 Riviere D'etel
4 50 Next Destination
Ken, you are right of course, it's just that I lived for 30 years in a village nr. Cheltenham & I don't remember anyone referring to it as the festival, just, The Gold Cup, or Gold Cup week, but I'm not a betting man.
Usually the whole Irish racing fraternity descends on the area for it. The sad thing is that all the pubs, hotels, B&Bs consider Gold Cup week to be the start of the new Cotswold tourist season after the quietness of winter. Huge breakfasts are laid on of Guinness, bacon & eggs and all,
normally a great event, sadly zilch this year.
Is there a horse called Covid running? :0)
Usually the whole Irish racing fraternity descends on the area for it. The sad thing is that all the pubs, hotels, B&Bs consider Gold Cup week to be the start of the new Cotswold tourist season after the quietness of winter. Huge breakfasts are laid on of Guinness, bacon & eggs and all,
normally a great event, sadly zilch this year.
Is there a horse called Covid running? :0)
I also picked up a bit of extra Festival money, Togo, but on yesterday's football, only one winner on the nags today. Had both Arsenal and Norwich to win 2-1. and also Man Utd 2-1. Knew that if any let me down it would be Utd:-( Picked up £62, so that's an extra £15 per day :-))
I'll also wait 'til i see the whites the horses eyes before i place any bets. At the moment i've got Soaring Glory, Aye Right and Remastered ear-marked for my usual L15 bet so i need another to go with them. If Epatante drifts, i may include that one or i may even risk Balko Saint - just to boost the accumulative odds :-)))
It's always been the Cheltenham Festival, to me, guys. :-)
Grumpy, if you're gonna watch it, turn the sound down :-)
I'll also wait 'til i see the whites the horses eyes before i place any bets. At the moment i've got Soaring Glory, Aye Right and Remastered ear-marked for my usual L15 bet so i need another to go with them. If Epatante drifts, i may include that one or i may even risk Balko Saint - just to boost the accumulative odds :-)))
It's always been the Cheltenham Festival, to me, guys. :-)
Grumpy, if you're gonna watch it, turn the sound down :-)
