Why Is Covid-19 Less Survivable In The Uk?

[Gromit]

According to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle released yesterday, the UK could be the European country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic, suffering a death toll over 66,000 by August.
The IHME, which produces the Global Burden of Disease study, believes that deaths in the UK will peak with an estimated 2,932 deaths on 17 April, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by 4 August.
In the EU, Italy, Spain and France are forecast to suffer the highest death tolls, at 20,200, 19,209 and 15,058 respectively by 4 August.

https://ibb.co/pyhxVVb

[Old_Geezer]

Could be.
Inadequate data, different testing abilities, etc..

[jim360]

Some of these questions are more easily answered after the fact. What's certainly true, though, is that the UK either missed or wasted an opportunity to bring the disease under control, when we were "two or three weeks behind" Italy but didn't ramp up testing and contact tracing. Maybe it's not so much more fatal here, but our lockdown came a week or so too late, so that it's now widespread enough to have infected the vulnerable.

[AuntPollyGrey]

the Uk has a denser population that Italy,France and Spain. Could Be, Predicted, Possible, Forecast. Means nothing really as this is new territory to the IHME

[Gromit]

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

// Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4. //

[AuntPollyGrey]

'Forecast' , 'Estimate'. 'Predicts'. Its all supposition at the moment. T

[TonyV]

Good old Guardian stirring the pot as usual.

[ToraToraTora]

perlease!

[TonyV]

UK death rate is a lot higher, cannot get exact number at the moment.

[Gromit]

Ir is a IHME report, not a Guardian one.IHME is an apolitical organisation supported by the Bill Gates Foundation.

http://www.healthdata.org/about/director-statement

[jim360]

It will be easier to assess this over the coming week, but it's worth noting that the UK went from 1,000 to 6,000 record deaths in 10 days, Italy took 11 days for the same rise, and Spain 8. At the moment, then, it's not clear to me that we can be said to have worse outcomes than EU countries. Whether the next week changes that picture or not only time will tell.

[tiggerblue10]

There will be many deaths at home unaccounted for.

[Gromit]

TonyV

https://ibb.co/gDrnS4n

Germany has had double the Number ofcases than the UK but two thirds less deaths. China and Iran have had nearly half the deaths UK has had, and our recovery rate is very low (though probably inaccurate data).

[tomus42]

We'll have some idea how accurate these estimates are on April 17th. Until then it's not really possible to answer the question.

[jim360]

Comparison to Germany is tricky because they have tested far more people than us; Comparison to China is tricky because it's likely that their data is, for whatever reason, far from complete, and comparison to Iran is also tricky because it's been obvious for some time now that Iran hasn't had the ability to test in large numbers either. Reported deaths there have been between 100 and 150 since March 14th. I simply don't believe that, unless they're lacking the capacity to check more widely.

[Gromit]

// Comparison to Germany is tricky because they have tested far more people than us //

There is more Accurate data for Germany. If anything the UK not properly testing means That our are figures are probably even worse that the ones they are admitting.

[TonyV]

Gromit just a site selling Anti virus software, not a reliable source iMO

[jim360]

True, but that goes both ways: it's likely that deaths are being accurately reported (up to the missing count in care home etc, for the time being), but cases are not. That would have a positive impact on the apparent fatality rate, which is right now running at above 10% based on confirmed cases/deaths.

[fiction-factory]

>There is more Accurate data for Germany. If anything the UK not properly testing means That our are figures are probably even worse that the ones they are admitting.

>Germany has had double the Number ofcases than the UK but two thirds less deaths.
As jim points out Germany has tested far more. They have more detected cases but that's not the same as double the number of cases. We will have far more cases than we have counted because we have done fewer tests.