That Damn Brexit Eh...?

[ToraToraTora]

https://news.sky.com/story/cptpp-uk-accepted-into-indo-pacific-trade-bloc-in-biggest-trade-deal-since-brexit-12845758
...no doubt the 5C will come along and pour scorn on this deal but hey that's their job!

[THECORBYLOON]

"The government's own impact assessment puts the economic boost of this trade deal at just 0.08%."

Fantastic!

[jno]

///It said that the estimated increase in UK GDP in the long run was 0.08%.///

- and that's courtesy of the government's own website

https://tinyurl.com/bdzxfdac

We're in the money!

[Peter Pedant]

I dont have to - do a hatchet job
R4 were doing it, 0730-0800
a little too sardonically - ( with malicious pleasure)

8 pee in £100 traded came up
and we have free trade agreements with 90% anyway.

[THECORBYLOON]

"Yet the Government’s own modelling shows that joining CPTPP is expected to boost UK trade, GDP and wages for UK workers by only a modest amount in the long run (after c. 15 years), with the estimated percentage increase in GDP being 0.08%."

https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/7859/documents/81612/default/#page=13

If the growth were constant over that fifteen-year period, that would be growth of 0.0053% each year.

Incredible!

[jno]

the NHS will be able to employ another doctor

[bobbinwales]

Not earthshattering but its aid to be worth 1.8 billion a year in the long run ...so positive news

[Zacs-Master]

'worth 1.8 billion a year'

'All EU countries lose income after Brexit. The overall GDP fall in the UK is £26 billion
to £55 billion, about twice as big as the £12 billion to £28 billion income loss in the rest
of the EU combined'
https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

[THECORBYLOON]

BOB, that £1.8 billion increase is over the fifteen-year period, not annually.

Including changes in exports, imports, welfare and wages, the increase is £4.1 billon over the whole fifteen year.

[bobbinwales]

I know it's only getting a fraction back of what we lost but that's not the point... brexits done and the moneys lost...still no reason to turn noses up at £1.8 billion pa even if its alot less than we already lost

[douglas9401]

'Chortle'

Any port in a storm eh?

[Untitled]

I have always said that the CPTPP is this country's best option outside of the EU but I do hope people realise that our membership is going to come with strings attached because that is how the world works

[Old_Geezer]

The question is, as with all deals, what strings ? Deal breakers, or stuff that can be tolerated as a reciprocal trade off ?

[bobbinwales]

No you misread it the corbeyloon... it says it will be worth 1.8 billion a year eventually ( after 10 years) but it is per annum.

[bobbinwales]

Read the section how much is the deal really worth' and the bit that says 'critics..'

[bobbinwales]

Nevertheless it's dwarfed by the losses ...I agree with the term 'damn brexit' but that damage is done so have to look for openings wherever and be positive not negative

[THECORBYLOON]

BOB, there are two references to that figure.

The first is 'The UK is the first European country to enter the agreement, and the government claims it will lead to a £1.8bn boost to the economy "in the long run".'

The second one states, "with official estimates suggesting it will add just £1.8bn a year to the UK economy after 10 years, representing less than 1% of UK GDP.

A report into the impact of the deal was produced in 2021 and included this table showing the impact on various measures.

https://ibb.co/RPwV4gZ

It shows an increase in GDP of £1.8bn but that is measured over a fifteen year period.

Some of the measures show an increase in imports so when adding the increases together, that is deducted and is where I got the overall £4.1 billion change from.

[New Judge]

//I do hope people realise that our membership is going to come with strings attached because that is how the world works//

Indeed, as all trading agreements do. But it is very unlikely that those strings will include the unfettered right of all the people living in the current member nations of that organisation to live and work in the UK; nor the right of the administration of that organisation to pass laws that are supreme to those passed in Westminster; or the right of that organisation to determine how much State aid the UK government can give to industries of its choice; or the insistence of that organisation to ensure all government contracts are open to bids from all businesses in the bloc; or.... well I could go on but hopefully you get the picture.

[bobbinwales]

your still wrong the corbyloon.
GDP is measured annually. An increase of 1.8 billion means 1.8 billuon per year.
Even critics in the article say its 1.8 B per year. its unlikely critics woul d claim a bigger figure than the goverment. The goverment say 1,8 billion change to GDP.... thats per year

[bobbinwales]

the mention of 15years just means it'll take around 15 years to get the figure upto 1.8billion pa.. Its not a total over 15 years

[bobbinwales]

GDP for UK is around £2.2 trillion or 2200 billion pa
0.08% of that is 1.76 billion. PA
Hence the 1.8 billion.
Still small compared to Brexit losses but we might aswell use the correct figures