How Many Jobs Will Be Lost To 'technology'?

[EDDIE51]

There was a newspaper piece a few days ago headed 'Robots will take 15,000 jobs a year' or something similar. It started me thinking, just how many manual jobs will be left in 25 or 50 years and how will we cope?
Some thoughts so far
Driverless trains > Technology already exists
Driverless cars/taxis > Technology rapidly being developed
Accountants > Estimates are that over 90% of accountancy jobs can be computerised
Shop Workers > Online ordering getting a higher % every year
Farm Workers > just seen on TV program that a picker, sorter, cleaner and integrated packing system can replace almost all veg and fruit picking / packing jobs. Also a weed detector/remover that replaces a 30 strong weeding gang is now on sale.
Aircraft > pilots replaced by computer control. This already exists but again union pressure prevents introduction. Remember 80% of all aircraft accidents are due to 'pilot error' computers will not make such errors (same for cars)
How many more ?

[naomi24]

Just think how many jobs there will be in the computer industry. Someone is going to have to do all that manufacturing, selling, updating and maintaining.

[EDDIE51]

I did not understand the accountancy bit but someone told me that modern accountancy software is so good and gets updates automatically that people just do not need to employ an accountant as it is so easy to do it yourself.But of course there will always be those who are too lazy to do it themselves.
The really amazing bit was the machine that travels over a field and picks out only weeds leaving the crop untouched. It does the work of a 30 strong weeding gang. There was also a machine that picked,sorted, cleaned, weighed and packed carrots in a combined operation. From field to supermarket pack all without manual workers just a couple of people operating the machine.It replaces over 30 workers with just 2 operaters and does it much faster.
Do we know of more like this?
Another thought , mail delivery replaced by email. The post office strike will help put more of them out of work.
Manual advert delivery eliminated by targeted internet advertisements.
(The postman has just put an advertising leaflet through my letter box )

[EDDIE51]

Another one , real telephone operators replaced by robots. Have you ever managed to talk to a real person at PayPal for example?

[naomi24]

Eddie, just out of interest do you spend your whole life worrying about what might or might not happen in the future?

[TWR]

On going to Blackburn yesterday and seeing the litter that "some" of these dole scroungers should be made to pick up before collecting / getting their giros.

[Khandro]

Ratter; //My accountant ran an office with for 4 junior accountants, he now runs the same business from an office at home by himself with 2 computers.//

Business is that bad is it? poor chap! :0)

[EDDIE51]

'Giro' TWR? They went out years ago, electronic transfer now. More jobs gone.

[EDDIE51]

naomi, Surely we all worry/think/plan for what the future holds? Or do you just stumble blindly along from day to day?

[naomi24]

Eddie, immigration is rising and unemployment is at an 11 year low, so all these job losses you’re talking about don’t seem to be having much of a negative impact. Do you think you might be over-reacting?

[woofgang]

its been happening since the Tullian Drill and the Spinning Jenny.

[EDDIE51]

I'm not talking about now or the next year or so I am thinking 10 > 20 years into the future. I have 12 Grandchildren aged 4 to 13 , I worry if there will still be work / housing available when they grow up.

[woofgang]

as I said EDDIE, its been happening for years...long before the issue was computerisation. I bet the wild aurochs hunters were worried that their kids would have no jobs once people started domesticating goats.

[Togo]

I read the article Eddie, if I remember correctly it predicted that the biggest growth area for future employment was in the care industry and particularly the care of the elderly. Depressing thought.

[EDDIE51]

I know it's been happening for centuries! But the rate of loss of jobs is getting faster all the time. I am interested in what people think will happen 20 years or more from now, with an increased population combined with massive losses of 'manual labour' jobs!

[EDDIE51]

Togo, Yes I agree, there need to be far more jobs in 'care of the elderly' but where is the cash to pay for it?
Less workers means less tax paid but the number of elderly needing care is rising fast.

[-Talbot-]

EDDIE51
I'm not talking about now or the next year or so I am thinking 10 > 20 years into the future. I have 12 Grandchildren aged 4 to 13 , I worry if there will still be work / housing available when they grow up.



You obviously want your cake and eat it too EDDIE. In future years you think there will be far less jobs available but yet want to invite millions from overseas to come here and compete for far fewer jobs with your grand children.

[whiskeryron]

Since time immoral humans have been quietly replaced & there will come a time when they will no longer be required. Take for example the discovery of IVF the first time that change took place completely without a cock up. It will come to pass that Robot will begat Robot. The beginning of the end.

[EDDIE51]

Talbot why introduce immigration? It is not part of the question.
If there are less jobs and all those that remain need a high level of training then immigration will be less of a problem. I foresee fewer jobs but higher wages for those jobs that remain.
This is supposed to be a discussion about the future of low skilled manual work.

[ummmm]

Eddie - someone still has to input the data into these accounts packages. They are called book-keepers...

[EDDIE51]

Yes,
another area of job loss will be shop assistants due to self service checkouts as well as online shopping!
Banking is another are of job loss. Most transactions can be done without needing to queue up to see a clerk.