How Many Jobs Will Be Lost To 'technology'?

[EDDIE51]

There was a newspaper piece a few days ago headed 'Robots will take 15,000 jobs a year' or something similar. It started me thinking, just how many manual jobs will be left in 25 or 50 years and how will we cope?
Some thoughts so far
Driverless trains > Technology already exists
Driverless cars/taxis > Technology rapidly being developed
Accountants > Estimates are that over 90% of accountancy jobs can be computerised
Shop Workers > Online ordering getting a higher % every year
Farm Workers > just seen on TV program that a picker, sorter, cleaner and integrated packing system can replace almost all veg and fruit picking / packing jobs. Also a weed detector/remover that replaces a 30 strong weeding gang is now on sale.
Aircraft > pilots replaced by computer control. This already exists but again union pressure prevents introduction. Remember 80% of all aircraft accidents are due to 'pilot error' computers will not make such errors (same for cars)
How many more ?

[mushroom25]

//Talbot why introduce immigration? It is not part of the question.//

(in a disemboweled Stephen hawking voice)

THOSE IMMIGRANT ROBOTS - THEY COME OVER HERE, TAKE OUR JOBS.....

:-)

[-Talbot-]

EDDIE51
Talbot why introduce immigration? It is not part of the question.


Immigration was introduced a full 7 posts before my post was submitted.
Heaven forbid you should do something radical and actually read your own thread.

Why do you worry about a robot workforce taking your grand-kids jobs but not an overseas workforce?

[EDDIE51]

Talbot. this entire post is about robots/computers /technology taking over manual jobs, you are the only one who bought immigration into it!
I worry about the loss of jobs due to 'technology' , low paid unskilled jobs will be the first to go.
At present those jobs tend to be filled by immigrants so immigration will slow as unskilled jobs are eliminated. But the point of this thread is to ask how we think that 'technology' will lead to job losses.

[naomi24]

Eddie, I mentioned immigration before Talbot.

[wildwood]

As technology takes increasingly improves, the hours in a 'working week' will decrease, giving the workers more time to spend with the family.

We used to work a lot longer than 40 hours pw to get our wages, and even the 40 hours is now shrinking to 37.5 in some places

On the average, the hourly pay-rate keeps up with a manageable living standard (he said hopefully) so keep this in mind next time you vote for a government.

[EDDIE51]

Talbot, Naomi, You mentioned immigration as something that is happening now. This thread is about 20 or so years into the future.
I am interested in the future of employment in light of technological advance, not the effect of immigration.
As I said, I think immigration will slow as low paid manual jobs are eliminated by technology.

[Peter Pedant]

// Accountants > Estimates are that over 90% of accountancy jobs can be computerised //

No I know - Sage software can do a lot of the book keeping. I didnt like it much altho I have been examined in it. In the course and I chose a deliberately hands-on course rather than a weak version of finance and maths for finance. Almost all linear approximations [ sorry a bit technical there] - it is stressed than we have virtually done all the book keeping and the rest of the courses in future years is more interesting ( budgeting forecasting and so on)

so accountancy is changing

oh and we get a lot of 'effix' on which we are also examined - "I must tell the truth to the tax man. I must obey revenue law and other laws in England". "I must not cross the accountancy regulator" Rather obvious stuff to someone whos been in the NHS for thirty y

effix is due to the Arthur Andersen case - they were acquitted on appeal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Andersen_LLP_v._United_States
where it was put forward that if A A had not been economical with the truth then Enron would not have gone bust and there would have been no 2008 recession

bit of a long shot to me

it has already occurred to me that if you shot all the accountants in the UK not an awful lot would happen but there are still tax forms to fill out every year

[ToraToraTora]

no jobs are ever lost to tech, numerically, there are more people in work than ever before, they just need to be prepared to adapt to new roles.

[Patsy33]

When robots/ machines take over, more worrying, what's going to happen to masses of people with no work?

[EDDIE51]

True TTT , but that's more due to the increase in population rather than increased employment opportunity.

[EDDIE51]

Patsy, Yes that is a vital part of the question.

[ToraToraTora]

"True TTT , but that's more due to the increase in population rather than increased employment opportunity. " - both, surely, increased tech adds new and unexpected roles so we never know what new jobs will exist.

[EDDIE51]

^ Yes I agree, but those jobs will be few in number and highly specialised. No replacement for the 10,000's of lost unskilled manual jobs.

[237SJ]

//pilots replaced by computer control? That won`t happen

[EDDIE51]

It has already happened , they just don't make it very public!
All current BA aircraft have a totally automatic system that handles everything from engine start up to final docking at the destination airport!
There is still a pilot and 2nd officer but they can just sit there and do nothing when flying between the main airports.
Then there military drones flown from 1,000s of miles away mainly by computer. The same technology can be applied to passenger aircraft .
Making a plane pilotless is a lot easier than making a car driverless!

[237SJ]

No they don`t.

[EDDIE51]

The system is not cleared for use yet, but it exists and has been tested.

[Patsy33]

Eddie I was thinking more of when people have no more use. If no more jobs, no more money. Will people then be a burden to the rest, ie the elite?

[237SJ]

Not true Eddie. Hilarious thought though!