Has The Corbyn Bubble Burst?

[Khandro]

Cue for jim and co. to start working on the stats?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/841002/jeremy-corbyn-popularity-plunges-latest-poll-conservatives-ahead

[-Talbot-]

I firmly believed he reached his peak just after the election ... promise everything cos we have no chance to ... oh wait it may be possible ... start backtracking on the free stuff in case we have to step up to the plate.

Fair play to James O' Brian in that clip.

[Quizmonster]

Maybe, but not quite a spectacularly as Mrs Weak'n'Wobbly's one!

[jim360]

Loving the Express's description of 12 out of 13 polls since the last election where Labour enjoyed a small lead as "a post-election blip".

Also loving how it glosses over the very same poll giving Corbyn a one-point lead over Theresa May in the "Who would you prefer to be Prime Minister?" question, which rather suggests that the "Corbyn bubble" hasn't burst yet.

But an individual opinion poll tends to mean little on its own -- which, incidentally, is a line I've always stuck to in case you accuse me of ignoring a result I don't agree with.

It may depend on how many people really care about the crisis in Venezuela and Corbyn's reaction to it -- I suspect that the fallout won't affect many people's views on Corbyn myself, although there's no denying that he hasn't got it right.

[jim360]

"Loving the Express's description of 12 out of 13 polls since the last election where Labour enjoyed a small lead as 'a post-election blip'."

Just for the avoidance of doubt, that's 12 out of 13 polls not including this one -- which seemed appropriate given the Express's description of this poll as coming "after a post-election blip" (my italics).

Finally, let me just say that "working on the stats" is a rather pathetic way of dismissing my comments before they've started, when last time I "worked on the stats" it was on a post in which you got the interpretation of figures completely wrong (or, rather, let someone else get the interpretation wrong for you).

[Khandro]

There you go!
//But an individual opinion poll tends to mean little on its own//

Unless of course I agree with the result :0)

[Gromit]

BMG Research poll was for the Independent, and the Daily Express have been highly selective with the results.

// Jeremy Corbyn remains more popular to be the next Prime Minister, but only by the slenderest margin of 33 per cent to Ms May’s 32 per cent. //

So a Corbyn lead over May is presented as a burst bubble. Seeing as May is even less popular, then her bubble must have burst too.

Other results of the poll were equally bad for May,

// Only 29 per cent of people want her to stay in power for the whole Parliament – compared with 48 per cent who want her to resign early, the poll by BMG Research found. //

Anyone wanting to see the rest of the poll, and not the Daily Express clutching at straws version, should read the full results in the Independent.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/prime-minister-popularity-unpopular-rating-tories-conservatives-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-a7890801.html

[jim360]

You'll have to point me to a time when I have said, about a single poll, "OMG this is amazing and proves every other poll that says the exact opposite completely wrong!"

Because it's never happened.

[-Talbot-]

TBH I didn't even look at the poll and take the Express with a pinch of rock salt, I still think the Corbyn's fire has well and truly been missed on. (excuse the typo)

[youngmafbog]

//// Jeremy Corbyn remains more popular to be the next Prime Minister, but only by the slenderest margin of 33 per cent to Ms May’s 32 per cent. //

So what is the point of that stat?

May will NOT remain PM for next term, in fact probably wont remain pm for this term.

Personally I dont trust polls at all now. Is JC less popular, yes probabaly given his climbdown on his promises, is he massively less popular ? No I doubt it, especially when May is the alternative. The interesting bit will come when the Tories announce their new leader and that is what matters not Corbyn vs useless May,

[Gromit]

The same poll has an even better example of a bubble bursting...

// And 58 per cent said they were unhappy with her leadership, with 42 per cent satisfied, giving her a personal rating of minus 16 – compared with plus 12 when she called the June election. //

[youngmafbog]

Gromit, you are quoting the bleeding obvious that even the most ardent Tory knows.

But May is irrelevant, she will NOT be fighting another election as leader of the Tory party.

[jim360]

Probably not, but I suppose how she handles her remaining tenure as PM will make a difference to the next one.

The one-point lead Corbyn "enjoys" according to the poll is pretty meaningless -- I've tended to make the point that you should always add "plus or minus five points" to any individual polling numbers, so really it represents an effective dead heat. What I found surprising was to learn that it's actually only the second poll (out of 11) since the Election where Corbyn was ahead. So there's also that.

I think it's probably better to see the Labour performance in the election as the (near)-rejection of such a terrible campaign by the Tories, and a return to a two-party system, rather than as a "Corbyn bubble".

[youngmafbog]

Polls are only any good for winding our resident Poll addict Mickey up. And even that has got boring now.

You are correct jim, May's actions could have an affect on the next leader but that can go two ways too. For instance if she attacks the grey vote again but the next leader vehemently argues against her then the new leader could gain brownie points.

As they say though, a week in politics is a long time!

[cassa333]

Who bloody cares? They will go up and down like a yo yo depending on what policy the pollsters like or don't like at the time.

Everyone from all parties snatch at any perceived advantage whether real or not.

So... expect more of the same drivel until it becomes clear that one is waaaayyy ahead. Then call another snap election and it all drops off again ;-)

[ludwig]

I don't know if the bubble's burst, but the mask has certainly slipped a bit.

[Khandro]

Because fewer people don't now want Theresa as PM doesn't mean that they want the Jeremy (kill us we deserve it) Corbyn, in fact, many would prefer Jacob Rees-Mogg as the next Prime Minister and the bookies keep shortening the odds.

[New Judge]

Well the youngsters got out of bed once (or maybe twice) to vote for him. You can't expect them to keep doing it. :-)

[Khandro]

Just looked up the odds on JRM and he's now second at 6/1 after Davis at 3/1

[naomi24]

Jeremy Corbyn isn't real. It must be true .... the BBC is reporting it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05byrrf