ChatterBank0 min ago
The Pound Still Falling?
Against the Euro. Why? When one of the architects of the EU micky mouse money is telling it like it is. Perhaps there is a killing in it for the money sellers.
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I don't know of any major currency against which the mickey mouse Pound is currently gaining. In fact, I just looked up a long list of currencies and not one European currency seems to have failed to gain against the pound in the past three months. Going further around the world looking for a weaker currency I couldn't find one - maybe you can point one out to me. Even the Venezuelan currency has gained against Sterling.
This doesn't explain why (which doesn't stop one guessing) but it underlines the fact that the Pound is being dumped big time.
This doesn't explain why (which doesn't stop one guessing) but it underlines the fact that the Pound is being dumped big time.
Can't understand it. It'll sort itself out. Just this afternoon had booking for family villa in Tuscany for a week in August refused. Owner said it was because of Brexit and uncertainty over rates. Ha! He was attempting to profiteer and get us to agree to his 'floating' rate. He has got short shrift and we have re-booked with a cheaper villa whose owner is very glad to welcome us. A pattern for the Brexit negotiators to follow perhaps! :)
I've been following the fall and fall of sterling since around June 23rd. I've tried to avoid commenting on it though because truth be told I still have no idea what the fall in exchange rate even means. It could still just be a short-term, panicky reaction that will recede if it becomes clear that Brexit isn't so bad as all that; it could be something that was going to happen anyway (as I think NJ has pointed out, the pound was already on a downward trajectory in the year or so leading up to the referendum); or we may not have seen the last of this and the pound is set to be 20% -30% lower for many years to come.
And while I don't know that I can't say I even know if the fall is a good thing or not. It's a bad thing for Brits who live or work abroad; it's not going to be good for prices of anything imported (although that might be minor if the fall doesn't last). It might be good for exports, but other effects may negate that or may not.
What *is* true is that this can't be brushed away as just your average foreign exchange market rise and fall. Sure, currencies go up and down all the time, but the last time this happened at this level was in 2008 as part of the global crash; the time before that was Black Wednesday, or the mid 1980s rush to the dollar that battered the pound and sets the "31-year-low" threshold we're seeing set afresh so often these days. And it can't be ignored that the pound falls whenever there's a story about hard Brexit, or fresh expectations that the UK will leave the Single Market, and rises on opposite expectations. You can't really point to the FTSE Stock Market boom either, since this is very strongly correlated with the corresponding falls in the pound's value. Finally, I don't see how the volatility in the value of sterling is helpful either. If it's worth $1.22 at the moment and basically stays there for six months then I suppose that's fairly manageable, but if it's $1.22 today and $1.20 tomorrow and $1.25 on Wednesday and $1.18 on Friday, and back up the week after that, doesn't that present its own risks, because while traders are happy to buy and sell pounds your average man on the street won't be? Yet that's often what the pound is doing, and I'd suggest it's the volatility that's the main problem right now.
I don't think we should pander to market expectations in deciding policy, but it might be worth at least considering them. At any rate, the longer the depreciation in sterling lasts the more it becomes something serious rather than just a temporary blip that can be overlooked.
And while I don't know that I can't say I even know if the fall is a good thing or not. It's a bad thing for Brits who live or work abroad; it's not going to be good for prices of anything imported (although that might be minor if the fall doesn't last). It might be good for exports, but other effects may negate that or may not.
What *is* true is that this can't be brushed away as just your average foreign exchange market rise and fall. Sure, currencies go up and down all the time, but the last time this happened at this level was in 2008 as part of the global crash; the time before that was Black Wednesday, or the mid 1980s rush to the dollar that battered the pound and sets the "31-year-low" threshold we're seeing set afresh so often these days. And it can't be ignored that the pound falls whenever there's a story about hard Brexit, or fresh expectations that the UK will leave the Single Market, and rises on opposite expectations. You can't really point to the FTSE Stock Market boom either, since this is very strongly correlated with the corresponding falls in the pound's value. Finally, I don't see how the volatility in the value of sterling is helpful either. If it's worth $1.22 at the moment and basically stays there for six months then I suppose that's fairly manageable, but if it's $1.22 today and $1.20 tomorrow and $1.25 on Wednesday and $1.18 on Friday, and back up the week after that, doesn't that present its own risks, because while traders are happy to buy and sell pounds your average man on the street won't be? Yet that's often what the pound is doing, and I'd suggest it's the volatility that's the main problem right now.
I don't think we should pander to market expectations in deciding policy, but it might be worth at least considering them. At any rate, the longer the depreciation in sterling lasts the more it becomes something serious rather than just a temporary blip that can be overlooked.
//the problem with shorting is that you eventually have to buy some to cover your liabilities, then it all goes up again.//
Then the herd follows and the chase is on to buy before it reaches a peak, whence ........you frantically sell. Christmas bonuses are at stake here for the traders you know. They need a sure fire sell short and buy back commodity, the Remoaners gave it to them on a plate.
Then the herd follows and the chase is on to buy before it reaches a peak, whence ........you frantically sell. Christmas bonuses are at stake here for the traders you know. They need a sure fire sell short and buy back commodity, the Remoaners gave it to them on a plate.
Jim, "....It's a bad thing for Brits who live or work abroad...." - only if they receive their income in Pounds, or have made the mistake of keeping cash (including deposits, ISAs, etc.) in Pounds. Ultimately it is bad news for anyone dependent on income and/or savings in Pounds, wherever they live or work, because the cost of living will always include a substantial element of foreign-currency-based expenses, not least energy (those paying everything at foreign currency prices being the worst off).
// Jim, "....It's a bad thing for Brits who live or work abroad...." - only if they receive their income in Pounds, or have made the mistake of keeping cash (including deposits, ISAs, etc.) in Pounds.//
Exactly Karl, If one chooses to live or work abroad, why choose to be paid in or save Sterling? Then moan when it goes again the strategy. But never fly a flag for UK when it is all hunky dory?
Exactly Karl, If one chooses to live or work abroad, why choose to be paid in or save Sterling? Then moan when it goes again the strategy. But never fly a flag for UK when it is all hunky dory?
A fair point, Karl. I guess I was referring to those who are planning on working abroad, or just have to now and then, rather than those who were already there. Anyone who has major assets tied up in sterling but not Stocks, for example, which is most people in this country. A few have benefitted from the financial changes since Brexit, true, but that could be just as short-term.
It's a mess, anyway, and I don't want to pretend to understand it. I hope it's temporary, whatever it is, or at least that the fall in sterling has no significant effect on this country's economy. Either way, we'll see.
It's a mess, anyway, and I don't want to pretend to understand it. I hope it's temporary, whatever it is, or at least that the fall in sterling has no significant effect on this country's economy. Either way, we'll see.
Nice one Togo, you clearly know exactly what you are talking about, especially with the "milking" accusation. No matter what products or services you want to buy, from anywhere in the world, in order to sustain jobs and production in the UK, there is already a UK supplier on tap for every single one of them - obviously. What a sweet fantasy world you inhabit.
Of course Ellipsis may be alluding to cheap, illegal, foreign labour. Why pay British workers when there are millions of cheap black market candidates? Or child labour, Chinese and Indian sweat shops to buy good from. Anything is acceptable to some, other than British sovereignty and self governance.
