Glorious Goodwood - 27 - 31 July 2021

[Ken4155]

After quite a bit of rain in the area, we are looking at a damp start to the Goodwood festival and the forecast going is soft, which has already caused the defection of some of the intended participants.
Have had a quick butcher's and am disappointed to discover just 3 handicaps with fields large enough to sustain an e.w. bet:-( Thankfully there are a few decent handicaps on the supporting cards at Beverley and Yarmouth.

[Togo]

Luck and Karma both occur when least expected Ken. Hope you had a good chuckle. Not much in the way of a price to be had from todays offerings so will need to get a couple at least up in a punt. Again the first and fourth race at Goodwood are probably the most interesting from a hobby punters perspective and have had my best attention. Done the ITV7 again with a Trixie*** and E/W Acca, Win Trebles, and doubles on the other choices####. Good luck if you have a punt or happy mistakes in your case Ken. :))

Patient Dream @9/2 1.50G#
Regaby @9/2 2.10Str*
Ebro River @4/1 2.25G#
Gold Wing @4/1 2.25Nott*
Third Realm @2/1 3.00G*
Lady Bowthorpe @9/2 3.35G#
Highland Premiere @13/2 4.10G#

[aelmpvw]

ael's tip of the day, youth spirit 1500 goodwood

[Togo]

Won the Chester Vase well ael. It's only under par performance was in the Derby. Good price too.

[Ken4155]

1.50 G; King Frankel @ 11/2 - 5 places
4.10 G; Highland Premiere @ 13/2 - 5 places
5.20 G; A Pint Of Bear @ 12/1 - 5 places (Rev f/c with Isle Of Lismore)

£1 Patent, £1.50 e.w. Treble. 3 placed = poss £20, 3 winners = poss ££1,604.

2.25 G; Asymetric @ 5/2
3.00 G; Third Realm @ 2/1
3.35 G; Joan Of Arc @ 2/1

£1 Trixie, £1 Treble. Poss £93.

ITV 7, the above qualifiers plus Franz Klammer and Gold Wing. £1 e.w. acca.

Best of luck to all punters.

[Ken4155]

Also done Franz Klammer, Air Hair Lair, Dartington and Oscar Montel for a poss £450.

[Togo]

No cigar today for me. Had a look at Vintage Fashion and Muker in the last 2. Been down to the front all afternoon, it is lovely again.

[Togo]

The weather has taken a nasty turn ... wind and rain aplenty earlier. It has stopped now so I am going to have a walk and get back for some of the racing. Watched a replay of the Lady Bowthorpe win in the Nassau yesterday, what a great performance and a proper race. A tricky card today so no heroics. Done the ITV7 and just, for now, an E/W Acca and Trebles, Win Doubles.**** Singles placed on the first 2 and can adjust my sights when I get back if I need to. Good Luck if you have a go.

Elysian Flame @8/1 1.50G*
Tactical @11/1 2.25G*
My Rockstar 2.25BoD
Rhoscolyn @6/1 3.00G*
Nibras Shadow 3.10W
Dragon Symbol 3.35G
Outbox @10/14.10G*

[Ken4155]

Got a bit of e.w. money back from the L15 bet yesterday. As you say, Togo, a very tricky card and i am reliant on last year's winner Just Hubert to get me off to a flyer in the opener. Was going to back Buick's mount but it just never seems to put it all in where it matters - cue a win for it today:-/

1.50; Just Hubert @ 10/1 - 7 places (Rev f/c with The Grand Visir)
3.00; Maydanny @ 10/1 - 6 places (Rev f/c with Magical Morning)
4.45; Adeb @ 13/2 - 4 places
5.20; Wink Of An Eye @ 7/2 - 5 places

Win singles, 20p L15, £1 e.w. 4 placed = £26, 4 winners = £4,103.

ITV 7; Above qualifiers plus Baeed, Ibbenburen, Nibras Shadow, Battash and Passion And Glory. £1 e.w. acca.

Just about to look at the other meets. Best of luck, all.

[aelmpvw]

today's goodwood ew double, probably wise to ignore me . . .
1500 maydanny
1720 marching army

[brainiac]

As there is now a decider for the ITV 7, where you have to choose what the winning margin of the last race will be, it set me wondering what the most common winning margin in horse races is. Any way of finding out?

[Ken4155]

^
I am a great believer in stats when it comes to sports betting, brainiac, but i would not know where to look to answer your question. I would also imagine that, with the amount of racing we have on a day to day basis, such stats would be ever changing? I know that the handicapper has to work his ratings out based on winning distances, but only he knows how deep he delves into the stats.
Regards the ITV 7, i usually go for a very tight finish in sprints, 3 parts of a length in middle distance races and a couple of length at least in staying races. Nearly always go for over a length over the obstacles. Not very scientific but i doubt very much if i'll ever be involved in the 'tie-breaker' :-))

[Ken4155]

I can, however, tell you that, up until a couple of seasons back, the most common score in the 4 English football leagues was a 1-0 home win. Didn't keep up with my records after the 2019/20 season, so i don't know if that stat still applies.

[brainiac]

Thanks, Ken. I, too, always go for short winning distances in short races, longer in longer ones. Looks like they're going to get soaked this afternoon...

[Ken4155]

According to the ATR site, the course can expect light showers. I hope their forecasts are true and that the going doesn't alter mid meeting.

[brainiac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/7730473

[Togo]

Not much back today so far. Done a win patent in the last 3. Outbox, Ever Given, Marching Army.

[Togo]

There are places and bodies that have studied winning margins. Brainiac asked the question and I did indeed ask myself the same when the tie break doodah was introduced. I even had a look to see if the stats were out there. I found one or two places, this being one of them, but after having a look and becoming mind numbingly bored decided I would chance not knowing if I ever needed the Tie Break. Like Ken I look at the distance and the number of runners and add a bit on for N.H. races.

https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/winning-margins-in-british-thoroughbred-racehorses

[Ken4155]

I also Googled for a possible answer, Togo, and i got thishttps://onemilefourandten.com/2013/11/13/winning-distances-trip-going-field-size-race-class-handicapping/

which i couldn't understand :-(

I see the tiebreaker had to be used today to determine who won the £50K.

[Ken4155]

Gawd bless her Maj! Excellent ride by Ryan Moore in the last. A sort of trixie up with the voided runner and 2 win singles makes for a healthy enough profit on the day :-)

[Togo]

Nice one then Ken had my dosh back for the last minute Patent with a 6/1 winner, so no harm done. As far as I could make out Ken the main thrust of the research was that the difference between winning and losing in flat racing at highest level was about 1%(very similar to top class running races for humans) and that rises to about 4% for lower standard races and when conditions are extreme. N.H. racing had wider margins of about 3% again rising the lower the grade. Tell us something we didn't know I thought and summised that the percentage margins must be valid for winning distances so a 5f race and a 2 mile race have the same average percentage distance margins overall. Still can't be arrised to work out 1% of the tie break race distance or indeed 3% for N.H. I suspect that like you I take an educated guess. Only a fool puts a 10 length winning margin for a 5f race and a nose for a 3 mile chase ... but!!!!!