predicting score of Wimbledon match

[chirpychirpy]

What are the chances / odds of someone predicting the score of a men's quarter final match (best of 5 sets) at Wimbledon precisely - and I mean getting the score of each set exactly right? And what are the chances of two people in the UK doing that on the same match?

[squarebear]

Pretty high I would think.
Ignoring tiebreaks, each set could be

6-0
6-1
6-2
6-3
6-4
6-5
0-6
1-6
2-6
3-6
4-6
5-6

So 12 results for each set. 12x12x12x12x12 for 5 sets = 248832 combinations. The population of the UK is 60 million so it's pretty much guaranteed that two people will predict the same.

[squarebear]

Unless my maths is way out, 60million divided by 248832 is roughly 250. so the odds would be about 250/1

[squarebear]

Also bear in mind that the odds will be lower because very few matches end up 6-0, 0-6, 6-0, 0-6, 6-0 and other such weird combinations,so not many would bet on these outcomes.

[Rollo]

Considering that there is no tie break in a fifth set, there are theoretically an infinite number of possible final scores for that set.

So the odds are theoretically infinite too.

[albaqwerty]

morning square
you talking to yourself?

not wishing to split hairs, but out of a pop of 60 mill, only over 18's are allowed to gamble, would agreee that the odds are high but not impossible.

x

[squarebear]

True. I was assuming for argument's sake that there were no tie breaks otherwise yes, the scoreline could be almost anything.

More than one person could have a bet albaqwerty, which would reduce the odds even further ;-)

[chirpychirpy]

There were no tie-breaks. I predicted the Murray-Ferrero match exactly right.

[squarebear]

Ah but the bookmaker will lay the odds according to who he thinks will win rather than the true probability. In a 5 horse race, each horse should be 4/1 but that will never happen.

You should have a pretty high odd rate though. Did you take a price when you placed the bet?

[chirpychirpy]

sadly, I didn't place a bet. It was for a competition.

[squarebear]

Oh too bad, you would have made a mint!

[chirpychirpy]

really? how much if I'd put a tenner on?

[squarebear]

well if my rough calculation of 250/1 is correct, you would have got a cool �2510 back! Although the odds will not reflect the true probability of the game. It should still have been well over a grand.