Arctic Winter?

[Homer55]

Its still between 8-12 degrees at this time of year. And now scienctists are saying were due for an Arctic Winter, I personally cant see it happening. Does anyone know if I need to buy some gloves and a fluffy hat?

[ugly_bob]

No, just become a Geordie. You can walk around in shorts and t-shirt until about -20�C

[jake-the-peg]

Which scientists exactly are these?

The Met office's current seasonal forecast (next 3 months) is for the UK to be warmer than average:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/world/seas onal/index.html

[Homer55]

Just something id seen on sky news jake,

http://news.sky.com/skynews/picture_gallery/po pup_paper/0,,70141-1243218-4,00.html

[jake-the-peg]

Right !

So that would be a Daily Express story reprinted on Sky news.

You'll forgive me if I don't stock up on snow-shoes then :c)

[Homer55]

http://www.express.co.uk/news_detail.html?sku= 836

The New Year will also bring a spate of icy cold snaps to punctuate the otherwise mild winter, experts said.

Freezing winds from Russia and Scandinavia will cause the temperature to plummet and bring snow in January and February. Some parts of the UK can expect to see snow falling for more than a quarter of the winter, experts predicted.

A Met Office spokesman said: �When there are incursions of cold, dry air from northern Europe and Russia and moist, warmer air comes in from the Atlantic, you often get snow, so we could get more snow than usual this winter. Winter
temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than average, but there will probably be a higher frequency of cold spells in February.�

[mikeyp]

What's odd is that the met office website doesn't seem too fussed, both the page jake linked, and this one:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/w inter2006_7/index.html

Suggest a mildish winter, with maybe an above average amount of rain and some snow.

I think it's mostly just blown out of proportion.

[JudgeJ]

If you track the weather forecasts provided by the Met Office you will find that, unless there is a settled spell with high pressure sitting over the country, the forecasts often change considerably over a period of about 5 days.

For instance, the forecast last Sunday was that today (Thursday) would see a day of violent storms and torrential downpours over southern England for the entire day. This actually prompted me to postpone a planned activity.

Although it has rained today and it is a bit breezy, the weather is nothing like the forecast that was made just four days ago. In short, there is often difficulty making an accurate forecast much more than 24 hours in advance.

This is not the first time I have noticed these widespread inaccuracies. In fact last winter I actually tracked the five-day weather forecast for a period of about two months to see how it changed and how accurate it turned out. The results were astonishing.

Now we have some newspapers telling us that this same organisation can forecast the weather one, two or three months in advance. To be fair to the Met Office their long range forecasts are not detailed or definitive. However, that never stops the �expert journalists� from adding their own bit of spin.

The Government, of course, loves all this. Having now exhausted all the traditional justifications for raising taxes, it is now turning to �Green� issues in order to justify their ever-increasing extortion.

The danger is that enough of the population will fall for the myth that so-called �climate change� (which is actually little more than variations in weather patterns) from which we are all forecast to die a horrible death, can be influenced by increasing the London Congestion charge to �25 and bunging an extra fiver on their air fares.

�Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of Kings�
(King Canute (or Knud, if you

[jake-the-peg]

So JudgeJ If you think climate change is a myth why don't you tell us all where all the glaciers have gone and how come the Nort West passage has recently been navigated in 19 days!

We're all ears!

[JudgeJ]

I didn�t say climate change was a myth, jake. I don�t know enough about it to say whether it s true or not. There are lots of differing opinions. The weather, and the state of glaciers and seas has been changing since time began - long before man was around to have an influence and it will continue long after he's departed.

What I�m not convinced about is that the 4% of the world�s carbon emissions which are attributable to man�s activities are the cause of any such phenomenon should it exist. I should think that the 96% of emissions that stem from �natural� sources � and which must vary just as much as man�s 4% - plays a bigger part. When we are being asked to curb emissions by 20% or 50% or any other such number that politicians pluck out of the air, it must be remembered that this is 50% of just 4% - i.e. 2%. Probably not worth worrying about.

So we come on to what I really described as a myth � the notion that control over these events can be achieved by ever-increasing levels of taxation. Putting 5p on a gallon of petrol or increasing airport tax by �5 (as was done yesterday) will not alter people�s habits one jot. They will still drive and fly just as much. The myth (or, to be more precise, the outrage) is that they are being fooled into believing that by coughing up the extra cash they are somehow saving the planet � if, indeed it needs saving, that is..

[Phantaxus]

dont forget 18 months ago The Express were forcasting a property price crash - just glad I didnt sell up

[TeeGee]

In my experience, the only truly accurate weather forecast was that of yesterday. ( hindsight they call it ).
This planet seems to go through cycles of weather patterns, Ice Age, Drought, Noah's era and so on. All we can do is wait and see what happens next, as JudgeJ says the impact we as humans can have on the weather is so limited that it can have very, very little overall effect. Ok, so removing some rain forests may have some effect on the CO2 levels but nature has a greater infuence.

[bookermel]

Hi judge I guess you must be one of the lucky one's. I'm near Buckingham and we have had some really bad torrential rain and very stormy!! Although a few miles up the road it's not quite so bad. Dont forget weather can be very regional It must be difficult to get it right every where!

[Gef]

They are forecasts, ie predictions. Best way to tell is to look out of the window.

[CT]

They aren't saying anything I couldn't already heave told you. I'm not sure how many others have noticed this, but in the past 10 years or so winter has been arriving later and later. Mild, wet, windy weather up til about Christamas and even beyond in to the New Year. Cold weather bringing snow and ice has rarely appeared before then and sometimes as late as February. 2006 I think there was even some snow in March.

[coldwarkid]

Judge J
Yes it was a "bit breezy" today.
I think that the tornado they suffered in north west London vindicates the forecasters.

[jake-the-peg]

I don't think anyone believes that Climate change will be halted by a few pence on a gallon of petrol the Stern report made that quite clear.

But the UK is currently an important force in pushing for world-wide reductions and to continue that we have to be seen to be leading change.

You may not believe that mankinds actions are in any way responsible for global warming but the majority of the climate scientists working in the field and who know what they're about disagree.

Even the American Senates report said that "Climate change cannot be wholly accounted for by natural processes"

Tell you what - you hold a pint pot on your lap and I'll put 1.04 of a pint of boiling water in it and see how important you think 4% is then

[JudgeJ]

If nobody believes the things you refer to, Jake, why are they being done in the name of "Green" policies and not just honestly announced as yet another way to raise revenue to waste?

Yes, it's nice to see Britain leading the way for a change. It�s a pity we don�t choose to lead the way on other issues instead of waiting to see what other nations do before deciding what�s best for us.

Any changes we make to the piffling amounts of emissions that stem from this country will be completely lost amongst the increases from the likes of India and China. Are they going to sit up and take notice because we�ve added a fiver to air fares? I think not. As usual it will be the British taxpayer coughing up ever more cash with no proper justification.

Finally (then I promise I�ll shut up!) perhaps we can make our experiment a bit more analogous. Let�s fill the pot with cold water first and then add 0.04 of a pint (four percent, or 22ml � about four teaspoonsful) of boiling water. I don�t think the resulting overflow would cause too much of a problem.