Are Remainers Reconsidering?

[Khandro]

So it would seem according to the latest, rather large, survey. Perhaps seeing the shenanigans by the EU side of the negotiations, the realization is dawning of what the 'Community' really is; a far-reaching piece of self-serving institutional folly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/11/remain-voters-now-back-taking-control-borders-leaving-ecj-paying/

[Togo]

Now now Jim, why would I be referring to your good self? There are one or two posters who like to "selectively" spout statistics as irrefutable proof. At least 3 instantly spring to mind, mainly of a left of centre mindset and mostly Remainiacs to boot. Late nights make us all tetchy Jim. (&_*)

[Khandro]

Garaman; // they don't appear to have been asked if they would still rather remain.//

Well as the UK is leaving, there wouldn't be much point in that question.

[jim360]

Togo, I don't think you were referring to me specifically, but you may as well have been. Not, I hasten to add, in an insulting way either, and I didn't take it as such. It's just a fact that, as much I trust myself to get statistics generally right, I'm aware that I won't all the time. As I say, feel free to quote me on this in the future :)

[Garaman]

Exactly, Khandro, which is why the survey can't tell us whether or not they are reconsidering, which after all was your question.

[Peter Pedant]

// HaHa, as expected, there's something wrong with the poll//

yup why not ? a german economics minister said: "I never believe statistics unless I have had a chance to manipulate them myself !"

I said to a german - I think that was Krenz
and he said - no it was his economics minister
( the one who said that E Germany's GDP was greater than the UK's in 1989. well that is manipulation or alternative fact for you! - people said at the time it might be true....)

[jim360]

"They corrected themselves and the Telegraph is not to blame..."

As I said in my first post in this thread.

For myself I want to see the original research article, when it's available and shorn of reporting biases (so that I only have my own to deal with). Given the question you asked, Khandro -- "Are Remainers reconsidering?" -- I'd also want to see answer to the same questions from a year ago, or six months ago, or ideally several such surveys from the past. You can't claim changing attitudes if you don't know what they were before, after all.

Polls that *have* been running since the EU referendum generally indicate, in fact, that nothing has changed much. There's still pretty much a 50/50 split on how people would vote in a referendum on the same issue; there's still no signs that one side or the over regrets their vote -- at least, neither side more so than the other; and there are still no signs that the country knows whether to be optimistic or not. You can see a few such graphs here:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/uk-poll-results/

Almost all of them indicate little or no movement since June 2016. So are remainers reconsidering? Some are, perhaps: but hardly enough to be really significant. This poll doesn't seem to alter that picture either. There are a few fluctuations but on the face of it, Leave and Remain voters are largely indifferent to the specific details of Brexit. Except on immigration.

[Peter Pedant]

// Not, I hasten to add, in an insulting way either,// Jimbo

hey Jim havent you had the previous honour of being asked if you knew 1+1 = 2 ?
by one of the usual suspects on this thread I think as well

You have certainly been treated to Lady Cunards gibe at Bertrand Russell - o mr Russell your arguments are just not logical !

[Peter Pedant]

as a remainer
I saw the size of Junckers expensse claim
and thought I admit
that is one euro fat cat we dont have to pay for ....

Juncker of course will insist he is worf evry sonteem....
(

[jim360]

In actual fact, the Buzzfeed article already answers one of the questions I had, although I rather suspected this would be the answer:

"Finding the public's view on what Brexit should look like has proven a tricky task for pollsters and politicians, as many of the technical issues and tradeoffs are not well understood. As an example, one poll showed 88% of the public supporting free trade with the EU post-Brexit, while 69% wanted customs checks at the border – a directly contradictory position, meaning at least 57% of respondents had said they supported both open and closed borders.

The academics tackled this by forcing respondents to choose between different plausible Brexit scenarios..." [my italics]

I don't think that forcing voters to make a choice means that they now support the choice they made. It could range anywhere on a spectrum from "Hard Brexit is the lesser of two evils" to "I have since changed my mind and now wholeheartedly support the Leave vote", via "Well it's not what I wanted but let's just get on with it" and "I guess Hard Brexit is more consistent with the result than a potentially continued EU membership under a different name".

Is this a fairer interpretation than "Are Remainers Reconsidering?" I think so, given the open admission that participants were obliged to choose only the options on offer. The various poll trackers I linked to earlier show, at least, an important context: there has been little to no movement on the key question of whether we should remain in the EU or leave in the first place.

[fender62]

the eu club as we know is going to collapse anyway, better to get out while gettings good, the eu was all germany anyway, merkel did not help with her..come on in migrants, italy greece overrun with illegals and jihadists moving north, massive drain on an overstretched public service, and the cost..........diseases crime islamic fundamentalists.

[jim360]

Update on this, if you are interested. The LSE released a more detailed discussion of the methodology, available here:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/13/the-british-are-indifferent-about-many-aspects-of-brexit-but-leave-and-remain-voters-are-divided-on-several-key-issues/

It's rather long and I've not read all of it, but I found the conclusions of that review interesting:

"While there appear to be few aspects of the negotiations that Leave and Remain voters demand at all cost or reject at all cost, there are aspects of the negotiations that are very important to them. Leave voters are particularly concerned about control over immigration... Yet, ultimately, citizens are indifferent about many aspects of Brexit."

Compare with my post at 9.29 on Saturday:

"...on the face of it, Leave and Remain voters are largely indifferent to the specific details of Brexit. Except on immigration."

And yes, I do have a smug face right now.

[Old_Geezer]

I think it's fairly clear that one of the main issues that related to returned sovereignty is population control. We're overcrowded, short on public resources, many unemployed and on welfare. Needs to change.