The end of the Revolution?

[metagirl]

Fidel Castro appears to be very poorly and he has turned over the running of the country to his brother Raul, the first time he has done so since he assumed power in the 50s.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5233556.st m

America is already planning for Cuba-after-Castro, when I assume ending the embargo will be back on the agenda - but at a cost.

I understand that Castro runs a strict communist regime and people have suffered but he has managed to show the world that in some aspects socialism does work.

What do you think will happen to the country once Fidel is no more?

[violetblue]

Unfortunately, metagirl, now the usual uninformed speculation will begin. I'm married to a Cuban and supportive of Fidel, and I just hope people put whatever 'news' they hear in context, ie that the world press is a capitalist press, and that the gobby Miami Mafiosi traitors that call themselves Cubans will have the lion's share of the opinion space. !Viva la revoluci�

[mycats]

I'm not an expert on this subject, but personally have always quite liked Castro. I understand that he took power but hasnt things like litteracy rates gone right up since he has been in power?
I just dont want to see America (or us for that matter) think they can swoop in and carve the country up for themselves after his death.

[WaldoMcFroog]

The country is likely to liberalise some more. After the USSR broke up in the 1990s and was no longer able to supply Cuba with many essentials, Cuba was forced to ration many items and belts were drawn in by many notches.

Without Russia, Cuba has opened its borders to mass tourism, albeit in a controlled way (particularly for the workers on the resorts who are constantly reminded by large murals that they are working for the glory of Revolutionary Cuba and not to trust the lax morals of the tourists (or words to that effect; they're not supposed to be seen by tourists and my Spanish is crap at the best of times)).

It is likely that this will increase further when Castro dies; even the tour guides suggested this would happen - and it's an offence to criticise the government to tourists, we were told.

However, my impression is that most Cubans are proud of their country. They are proud of their socialised medical system, one of the best in the Carribean, they are proud of the high levels of university attendence and they absolutely do not want to give up their ideals. I think things will change, but possibly not as much as some might think.

[jake-the-peg]

The problem with all dictatorships is that there is almost always a power vacuum when the dictator dies.

It's true of Rightwing dictatorships like Franco and Leftwing dictatorships like Castro.

There will almost certainly be a struggle for power, America will see it as an opportunity for regieme change and will wade in politically and/or covertly.

I guess the question is whether Raoul Castro has enough military support (he heads the military but hey what does that mean?) to assume the leadership without a coup.

If not I guess you could have a civil war which would be disasterous for the people but possibly the best outcome for America because they'd have the best chance of regieme change in that case.

If I were the CIA I'd be covertly funding any other likely contender in the hope of provoking a war then I'd denounce the loss of life get some UN resolutions and step in on "humanitarian grounds".

Not sure whether there'd be enough support in the US for wading into a Cuban civil war given the history with the Bay of Pigs and all that but I dare say it's a scenario that's been considered

[jno]

before the revolution, Cuba was often used as an offshore brothel by American tourists - hence the rather puritanical nature of the present regime (and its homophobia). Doubtless the Americans would like it back that way again; and the Miami boys will be charging in to snatch their land back from the peasants.

[maxximus]

yes jno sad but true, the revolution won't be fully over until fidel dies and the u.s. finally lifts it's embargo and there's a starbuck's on every other corner.

[Upforit]

When I decided to post here, before reading the previous submissions, I thought I would be the only person regretting the possible dismantling of Cuba�s r�gime. It is refreshing to see people who see beyond the capitalist media. But let�s hope that Fidel has had the foresight too see what may happen after his passing and has in place the means to continue Cuba�s successes. Cuba is not a threat to anybody and they should be left alone to continue to run their country as they see fit. What a pity the USSR had Stalin instead of a soviet Castro. How different might the world be. I can only finish by echoing the words of violetblue. !Viva la revoluci�

[ivanhoe]

If Cuba goes over to free market policies then it will suffer the same fate as Russia and Eastern Europe i.e unemployment , privatisation resulting in overseas exploitation and attacks on their government spending programme. The US embargo had caused much poverty and emigration. If this is lifted there would be much more liberalisation and as long as they did not allow the media to be taken over by the press barons Cuba could advance to having a real socialist revolution along with Venezuela,Bolivia and other Latin American countries with much more democratic control from below.