Sir Jeremy Farrar Says The Uk Could Be The Worst Country In Europe For Deaths Through The C19 Virus

Bobbisox1 | 10:30 Sun 12th Apr 2020 | News

33 Answers

I’d like to ask, WHY?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-52261857/coronavirus-uk-likely-to-be-worst-affected-country-in-europe

Rip Stirling Moss

Stirling Moss

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Peter Pedant

FF
standard linked diffl equations
but they arent linear - so numerical solutions only
I can understand them so you shouldnt have much difficulty

The oxford one does a "model builder" lecture which may appeal to a pedagogue - Zhukov does a "this is what we use" approach

you can keep up if you recollect that statisticians are failed pure mathematicians - so there will be no mumbo jumbo 'and in the Hilbertian space we have constructed, Greens theorem still holds under the usual obvious constraints"

vulcan42

As it's generally agreed that the UK Government was slow in implementing widespread testing, could this mean, because more people have caught it and recovered, that immunity could be more widespread and in a relative short period of time this could help to eradicate it?

youngmafbog

Do all countries test and record exactly the same?

If not then we will never know.

There is a lot of mis-information out there, mainly the MSM pushing on the fear of people for clickbait to sell advertising. And then there is general social media- need I say more.

Zacs-Master

The UK isn’t recording nursing home deaths.

Peter Pedant

// Probably closer to two weeks, I should say. The one week estimate is careless on my part,//

we all have our own units - some people measure life in mars bars ( no shrinkage over time and adjusts for inflation) - I was thinking in units of Lockdown
and thought we were good for one and not two
( three weeks for earthmen)

youngmafbog

Quite Zacs and other countries will be recording in different ways too, without a doubt China did.

We will never know the true figure and comparison between countries is pointless.

Zacs-Master

Indeed.

Peter Pedant

// The UK isn’t recording nursing home deaths.//

I am sorry can you be more exact?

The UK isn’t recording nursing home deaths certified by GPs in the daily figures given to the Beeb. They are adjusting for them on a weekly and monthly basis with the usual caveats
1) GPs arent telepathic and dont know diddly squat about corona
2) there is a lag - a very long lag if referred to the coroner
3) after Shipman, coroners have a lob on about GP certification at the best of times
4) the system was never designed for this ! etc etc

Gromit

vulcan42
Even if that happens, we will never be able to prove it because we have missed so many diagnoses.

Germany has found 50,000 more cases than the UK and can report 57,400 people who have recovered.
The UK meanwhile have recorded just 344 recoveries.
The discrepancy is due to UK people only getting tested if they make it to hospital, or have died.

Peter Pedant

// Quite Zacs and other countries will be recording in different ways too, without a doubt China did. We will never know the true figure and comparison between countries is pointless.
Zacs-Master Indeed.//

quite wrong of course - I love AB when it is in twut mode
all sorts of people come out and scream "how true! how true!"
Garbage in and Jesus how the garbage flows out !

time of course is invariant - 24 h in china is 24 in the land of the free !

the slopes of the curves may be comparible - and the same shape in which case they can be compared with a simple multiplier - 1 or 3.4
or whatever

the other things is scale invariance - "scale in whatty unts? " I hear you all whine in gormless essex accents looking thick......
doing a graph by proportions or percentagtes
and then all the arguments is about what 100% is in the two areas considered

and so you see boys and girls - you CAN compare things that the Great and Good dont want you to !

cassa333

I think Germany has used testing to help combat the virus. Targeting those infected has helped so the question is, why hasn’t the UK started widespread testing?

pixie374

We have had someone on a care home recently, who was taken to hospital with multiple organ failure, after living with kidney failure for many years. 90 years old. Once in hospital, she got pneumonia, and was tested positive with coronavirus when she died.
The death certificate says pneumonia and covid... even though she was about to die in spite of those. So the figures may be inaccurate either way.
Also, I know a paramedic who had symptoms about 3 weeks ago, had to drive to Chessington to be tested. Seems fine and returned to work. His wife is a nurse... both working- and even now, haven't received the results.

Zacs-Master