Dr John Lee Writing In The Spectator On Coronavirus.

[Deskdiary]

Interesting article providing an alternative view.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

I found the points he was making pretty compelling.

Thoughts?

[tamborine]

From son Frazer's funeral directors business. "...Iv heard from Simon, he says every mortuary he has visited is more than full of dead coronavirus poeple, we are told the death toll is up to 1000 poeple, but from wot he's seeing is a lot more! This coronavirus is as twice contagous as any other disease we have ever known. Crematorias work 24/7 to cope and staff going sick with no back up...."

[AuntPollyGrey]

//he says every mortuary he has visited is more than full of dead coronavirus poeple,//
you couldn't make it up could you...….well,actually………….

[Peter Pedant]

well we know that Dr JOhn Lee in the spectator
who is never wrong
and very probably right all the time
says there is nothing to worry about

so if there is something inconsistent - it must be Fraz's report

[AuntPollyGrey]

wot? Frazers report on corona dead poeple?...slanderous!

[Peter Pedant]

// No, we aren’t - and the post at 10.43 didn’t suggest we are. a country of 7.8 bn The post at 12:54 is the usual ... mess.//

then why mention it? I am sure you did and no I have no appetite to go over the deeply thought out pensees of Naomi. a large proportion of parents didnt think that MMR was safe and now the cemeteries are full of dead babies

shrugging from the anti vaxxers who said nothing to do with us

the Site Rules changed soon after to prevent crazy old people from venting statements that damage children - and drawing jesuitical distinctions - well done ed and the mods

( er like Pres Trump and chloroquine - recent result one dead man from chloroquine poisoning)

[Peter Pedant]

large proportion of parents on Samoa - damn
so its 160 dead samoan kids

sozz readers

[allenlondon]

Dr Leeis surely just making a highly reasoned plea for scientific thinking.

Maybe, judging from the reaction of some of our keyboard warriors, scientific thinking is asking too much...

[Peter Pedant]

Dr Lee as an intellect?
oh lordy lordy I knew I was on the wrong thread .....

[naomi24]

PP,//then why mention it? //

I didn't.

//I am sure you did//

Well, you'd be wrong - again.

//a large proportion of parents didnt think that MMR was safe//

I didn't say that either. Do try to get a grip - if you can.

[allenlondon]

PP, your jokey sniping is amusing, but sometimes pointless. So you don’t like John Lee, for reasons of your own.

But what of his arguments? You can’t simply ignore them in a loony mix of baby-talk and clever phrases.

There IS a pandemic, but we need more clear science-based thinking, not less.

[NickorWan]

There can’t be many people who don’t by now understand the principle of flattening the curve, but Dr Lee seems to be one of them. He focuses on death rates, which as he says may be, and hopefully are, much lower than many predict. However, the main issue is not death rates but the numbers of people needing hospitalisation at the same time. He compares the death rates of the virus to death rates of flu, but what he should be looking at is the hospitalisation rates of the virus compared to flu. Plus of course, the effects of flu on the NHS are programmed into the NHS calendar. We are building huge temporary hospitals and temporary morgues, and that is with the lock-down measures in place. Assuming they will be needed, and I like most am not qualified to say whether or not they will, imagine what we might need if we didn’t lock down and just let the virus run its course.

As well as reducing the numbers needing hospitalisation at any one time, flattening the curve has another advantage; a small percentage of the population would never get it – hopefully the most vulnerable which is why they are being advised to stay isolated until it is safe to come out.

[allenlondon]

Nickorwan. Who’s arguing? Lee’s analysis of death rates adds to our understanding of the problem; it doesn’t negate the government’s approach.

All I’m advocating is calmness and science-based thinking. If anyone doesn’t understand, they should keep schtum!

[NickorWan]

The message coming across from the report, to me at least, is that the measures being taken are too drastic for what he believes the true death rate. What I am saying is that the measures aren't being taken on account of the death rate, but rather on account of the numbers who would fall ill at the same time.

[allenlondon]

Interpretations. But given the figures at the time of Lee’s writing, he might have had a point. I hope by now he’s revised his thinking, otherwise he’s not the clear-thinker I hoped he was.

Mind, one thing puzzles me either way. The Great Lockdown might help ‘defeat’ the virus, but it’s totally *** the economy, which you’d have thought was the last thing our capitalism-supporting government would have wanted.

Cock-up, I suppose, but I’d like to hear other reasoned analyses of why Johnson’s gang did what they did.

[naomi24]

//you’d have thought was the last thing our capitalism-supporting government would have wanted. //

It is the last thing they'd want - apart from saving lives and preventing the NHS from being swamped into extinction.

[allenlondon]

Again, illogical. The Tories, and particularly this current cabinet, are not NHS supporters; on the contrary.

[naomi24]

Allen, that's totally irrational. Tories use the NHS too - and are just as appreciative of it as anyone else. They're not all rolling in money you know. Far from it.

[Gromit]

// the headline death rate due to this virus is likely to be ten to 20 times lower, say 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent. That puts the Covid-19 mortality rate in the range associated with infections like flu. //

Who wrote that nonsense? It was none other than Dr John Lee writing in the Spectator in March. He has a political agenda which is why the Spectator (and several ABers), like his opinions.