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I've never subscribed to the 'politics' argument, which was largely started by Wogan, Andy. To me it seems that nations simply vote for songs in the styles which are popular in that part of Europe, For example, Greece, Turkey and Cyprus all tend to vote for each other's songs, irrespective of the tremendous animosity between Greece and Turkey, simply because the same styles of music are popular across that part of the world.
Further, Ireland has no natural political allies in the competition, other than the UK, but has won the competition more times than anyone else.
However I largely agree with your first paragraph ;-)