//...you assume that education and the economy would have been left untouched without lockdown.//
No I don't. The assumption I do make is that they would not have been left with anywhere near so much damage as it has been with the closing of schools and much of the economy.
A fact that was known right from the very beginning was that preventing the spread of the disease was impossible (unless every human being remained isolated from every other human being). Everybody will be exposed to the SARS-Cov-2 virus multiple times in their lifetimes and most of us probably already have been. Whatever its effects (long or short term) those effects would have still been evident whether the virus was encountered in March 2020 or March 2021. The only people who needed specific protection were the very elderly and those vulnerable because of other medical conditions. The threat to everybody else was marginal at worst.
However, all these arguments were done to death during the pandemic and there’s little point in going over them again. But you don’t have to take my word for it. Very fortuitously, there was an article published last week, written by Professor Robert Dingwall. Professor Dingwall knows a thing or two about the plan that the UK had to combat a pandemic, mainly because he was one of the main authors of it:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12370977/The-Covid-Inquiry-never-admit-strong-pandemic-plan-went-wrong-Leftie-scientists-panicky-politicians-writes-PROFESSOR-ROBERT-DINGWALL.html
It makes interesting reading in its entirety, but I’ll just pull out a few salient points:
“We looked at most social aspects of pandemic planning. We saw working papers from almost every government department detailing how a pandemic might affect their jurisdiction.”
We received papers from mathematical modellers and considered them. We did not have those modellers in the room — or on Zoom — shouting down the views of others. Medics were in a minority."
“I can say, then, that the official United Kingdom plan for dealing with a novel respiratory virus, even one as dangerous as Covid-19, was quite the opposite of negligent. Not only was it well thought through, it was admired across Europe. Throughout 2006-7 I spoke at international conferences, where leading public health officials told me as much.”
“A pandemic challenges a whole society not just its health system.”
“Children are much safer in school — provided there are enough teachers and volunteers to supervise them. Children's interests came first in our considerations. A study this week from the Institute for Fiscal Studies found the pandemic had a 'catastrophic' impact on children's emotional and social skills.”
“As far as I recall, masks were not even discussed. From my own reading, it was clear that cloth masks had not helped during any previous influenza pandemic.”
No other pandemic had ever been addressed by such Draconian measures. There is no doubt in my mind that the government panicked and lost its nerve. I said so in March 2020 when the ridiculous volte-face was announced. The eventual outcome for this country was severely compromised by this and it will take decades to recover from it. Of course the Covid enquiry – if it ever reports – will not say this. But there is ample evidence (which would not take three years to uncover) to support it.
We are left with a generation of children who saw two years of their education abandoned, an economy in tatters because of £400bn of money-printing, and a health service which is completely overwhelmed. All because politicians could not hold their nerve and implement a plan that had been devised and approved in a rigorous fashion, and instead implemented one which had been sketched out on the back of a cigarette packet.