Why Labour Probably Wont Win A Majority Next G E.....

[ToraToraTora]

https://blogs.canterbury.ac.uk/politics/2023/02/13/why-labour-may-not-get-a-workable-overall-majority-in-the-next-election/

"There are 650 seats in Parliament, so the nominal majority is 326, but the Speaker occupies one seat, and Sinn Fein M.P.s do not take their seats, so the required number of M.P.s cannot be stated without knowing how many Sinn Fein will win. Let’s say 320 seats will provide a majority. The Labour Party cannot look to the north of Ireland, where it does not contest any of the eighteen seats. Plaid Cymru will win at least three or four seats in Wales, as it has in every election since 1983, and the Greens will keep one and perhaps gain a second in England.  If Labour wins only 10 seats in Scotland, it will need to find about 310 seats in England and Wales, where it won only 255 in 2017 and 201 in 2019.  Labour will need to win 120 seats from the Conservative Party just to give it a majority of one.  Even if Labour recovers the so-called red wall seats, it is hard to see where it will find the 160 seats that it needs to win to have a working majority."

[ToraToraTora]

I can't wait for the next election....

[nicebloke1]

Your OP appears to reflect a win then for Labour then?

[Canary42]

Keep telling yourself that then, if it stops you posting any more Tory Drivel here.

[ToraToraTora]

13:41 it says a majority is unlikely and epxlains why, read the highlighted paragraph.

[Old_Geezer]

The most likely result is a hung parliament and up to four years in the wilderness for the nation. But one never knows, we will have to wait and see.

[ToraToraTora]

13:42, you are mixing me up with someone else, I hardly ever post about the tories, that's hymie and gulliver. The article is a well contructed analysis of the electoral arithmetic, if the truth disturbs you then cover your eyes. Starmer ain't ever getting through the door of no 10.

[nicebloke1]

Maybe the new wilderness will look more promising than the one we've had for 13 years OG?

[johnk]

Will the cons win any seats at all?

[bobbinwales]

//'Labour will need to win 120 seats from the Conservatives....'//

Can you clarify that for a thicko please?

Sounds achievable ...but I don't get it

 

[ichkeria]

Labour according to the article has 201 seats so it needs 120 for an effective majority of one.

Of course those seats don't all need to come from the tories 

[10ClarionSt]

I think it will be a close call but the least that will happen is that the Tories will lose lots of seats and their overall majority. Labour will win back the red wall, and if, I say if, they can make progress in Scotland, then they will be close to an OM. There are lots of constituency boundary changes this time, including ours. Our constituency will disappear and will be split into two called, I believe, Blackley North Manchester, then Heywood. This might have an impact on the result too. But the main factor in the election will be the focus on how useless the Tories have been for the last 13 years - because they have.